Liam Duckstein
The Serie B Promotion Semifinals bring Monza and Juve Stabia into direct competition at Brann Stadion. Both clubs enter this decisive match tied after a 2-2 draw in the first leg, heightening the tension for the return fixture. Monza enters as a strong favorite, but Juve Stabia has shown resilience this season, especially when not expected to deliver. A crucial subplot is the tactical battle between Paolo Bianco and Ignazio Abate, both making bold choices in their lineups lately. Among several talented players, Monza’s Andrea Petagna stands out for his efficiency in front of goal, while Juve Stabia’s Nicola Mosti has contributed essential goals at key moments.
Hot stat: Monza have scored 12 goals in their last five matches, nearly doubling Juve Stabia’s tally of 7, underlining their recent attacking effectiveness.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie B 2025/26 Promotion Semifinals |
| 🏟 Venue: | Brann Stadion, Bergen |
| 🗓️ Date: | 19.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
Monza vs Juve Stabia prediction
We predict Monza to progress to the final. Their offensive numbers are clear: 12 goals, 30 corners, and 86 total shots in the last five outings. Juve Stabia struggle to match this attacking output, and their lower win rate this year (27% vs Monza’s 52%) tips the scale. Monza’s ability to control the ball and generate set-piece opportunities, combined with a compact 3-5-2 formation, will likely overwhelm Juve Stabia’s more reserved 3-4-2-1 approach.
Both teams rack up yellow cards (11 each in their last five), but Monza commit more fouls and show a slightly better pass accuracy (75% to Juve Stabia’s 73%). This suggests Monza play more aggressively, take more risks in possession, and occasionally leave themselves open at the back. Juve Stabia’s style relies on composure and maximizing limited chances, but Monza’s consistent pressure could wear them down. Set pieces and fouls could play a major role if the game remains tight.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Monza to win and both teams to score |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Monza’s last match ended 2-2 against Juve Stabia in the first leg, echoing their attacking intent and vulnerability at the back. Recent fixtures saw them score at least once in all but one game, with high shot counts and an ability to win corners. Their draw against Empoli (2-2) and a narrow loss to Mantova (2-3) reveal both their attacking power and occasional defensive lapses. The side remains unpredictable, but their positive goal difference and strong home stats give them the edge.
Juve Stabia held Monza to a 2-2 draw in the first leg, showing grit but also conceding as many as they scored. The 1-1 result against SudTirol and a 1-0 win over Modena show this squad prefers to grind out results. They rarely win big, often settle for draws, and lean on key moments from players like Mosti and Gabrielloni. Their form line is streaky, with only one win in their last six, but their ability to frustrate favorites is worth noting.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Monza | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 2 |
| Total shots | 86 | 72 |
| Free kicks | 10 | 2 |
| Corner kicks | 30 | 17 |
| Total fouls | 75 | 73 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 75 | 73 |
| Interceptions | 48 | 44 |
| Offsides | 12 | 11 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Monza vs Juve Stabia stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Monza the favourite
- Moneyline Monza 1.24 | Juve Stabia 3.60
- Draw N/A
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
Bookmakers rate Monza as heavy favorites, reflecting both their attacking output and recent consistency. The 1.24 line gives very little value for a Monza win alone, so combining it with both teams to score or over 2.5 goals is more interesting. Juve Stabia’s odds point to an outside chance, and we see little in their form to suggest an upset.
Juve Stabia. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Monza possible starting eleven
- GK: Demba Thiam
- DF: Andrea Carboni, Samuele Birindelli, Adam Bakoune, Filippo Delli Carri, Lorenzo Lucchesi
- MF: Matteo Pessina, Andrea Colpani, Pedro Obiang, Hernani
- FW: Andrea Petagna, Patrick Cutrone
Demba Thiam has been ever-present in goal and provides stability. Carboni and Delli Carri have been reliable at the back, while Pessina marshals the midfield. Petagna and Cutrone offer a blend of creativity and finishing. Bianco should stick to the 3-5-2 that’s brought the best out of this squad, allowing them to transition quickly from defense to attack.
Juve Stabia possible starting eleven
- GK: Pietro Boer
- DF: Marco Bellich, Andrea Giorgini, Christian Dalle Mura, Lorenzo Carissoni
- MF: Giuseppe Leone, Nicola Mosti, Fabio Maistro, Manuel Ricciardi
- FW: Alessandro Gabrielloni, Alessio Cacciamani
Pietro Boer is likely to start in goal again, with Bellich, Giorgini, and Dalle Mura forming the backbone in defense. Mosti is the main creative outlet, with Maistro bringing balance in midfield. Gabrielloni and Cacciamani should lead the line, tasked with seizing any counterattack. Abate will probably deploy a 3-4-2-1, hoping for defensive solidity and moments of individual brilliance up front.
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Monza. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Monza will edge this tie, driven by superior attacking output and a more reliable defense. Expect Juve Stabia to score, but Monza’s strength on set pieces and in open play should prove decisive. The most value comes from backing Monza to win with both teams getting on the scoresheet, in a match likely to see over 2.5 goals and plenty of corners.
