Monza vs Empoli Prediction: 18.05.2025 Serie A Preview

As the curtain falls on the 2024/25 Serie A regular season, Stadio Brianteo hosts a match with significant stakes at both ends of the table. While survival is a far-off dream for Monza, who linger uncomfortably at the foot of the table, Empoli enter this clash desperate for a win to keep their own slim hopes of staying up alive. The most intriguing subplot? Alessandro Nesta, helming Monza, faces Roberto D’Aversa’s Empoli—two coaches still searching for consistency but sharing an all-or-nothing approach as the campaign concludes.

Keep a close eye on Gianluca Caprari, Monza’s inventive forward, coming off a goal in their most recent fixture and showing signs of individual quality even amid Monza’s turbulent campaign. For Empoli, Jacopo Fazzini’s upturn in form—with three goals in his last four appearances from midfield—brings added threat and a glimmer of optimism to a squad needing one last twist of fortune.

“Hot stat”: Monza have managed just one win across their last 18 league matches—a stark indicator of their struggles. In stark contrast, Empoli’s Jacopo Fazzini has scored three times in their last five, offering hope for the Azzurri faithful.

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Monza vs Empoli prediction

Empoli enter this match as the bookmakers’ clear favourite—and for well-founded reasons. While both teams have won just once in their last five outings, Empoli’s attack has looked marginally sharper, evidenced by their six goals compared to Monza’s paltry two. The “Azzurri” also boast a marginally better defensive record, despite a patchy season overall, and their away form includes a battling draw and a victory in high-pressure situations.

Expect Empoli to control the central areas, utilising their 3-5-2 shape to overload Monza’s midfield and threaten through runners like Fazzini, while Monza’s 3-4-2-1 will look to exploit whatever scraps of possession they can muster for Caprari. Caution signs abound—Empoli have committed 96 fouls and collected 13 yellow cards across their last five, suggesting an aggressive, sometimes reckless edge that could both stymie Monza’s rhythm and backfire if not carefully managed. Alternatively, Monza’s lack of discipline has manifested in 40 fouls and 10 yellow cards over the same span.

Team Analysis

Monza come into the contest on the back of a rare 2-1 win against Udinese, briefly lifting spirits at Stadio Brianteo after a four-match losing streak that saw them ship a combined eight goals without reply. That solitary spark—fueled by Caprari’s influence and some late-game resolve—has been the exception, not the rule. Previously, heavy defeats against Atalanta (0-4) and Juventus (0-2) laid bare Monza’s defensive frailties, with a lack of attacking bite resulting in only two goals across their last five games. Nesta’s persistent faith in the 3-4-2-1 seems designed to provide defensive solidity, yet the personnel haven’t delivered consistency on either end of the pitch.

Empoli mirrored Monza’s recent fortunes with a vital 2-1 victory over Parma last time out—breaking an extended sequence of losses and breathing hope into their final-day surge for survival. Roberto D’Aversa’s outfit showed improved attacking impetus, with Fazzini’s late-season form pivotal. Defeats to Lazio (0-1) and Fiorentina (1-2) highlighted a continued vulnerability, but Empoli’s overall play remains more proactive than their hosts: more shots attempted, more progressive passes, and slightly greater resilience in key moments.

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🚨Read our full Monza vs Empoli stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Empoli the favourite

• Moneyline Monza 5.00 | Empoli 1.73
• Draw 3.71
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.00 | Under 2.5 1.75
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.10 | No 1.65

It’s plain to see why Empoli are odds-on for this encounter. They’re simply in better form, with more recent goals and higher attacking intent. Bookies have rarely rated Monza’s chances—just a 19 percent win probability by the averages, reflective of their struggles in every major metric. Draw is priced generously due to the pressure on both sides and the fact that recent head-to-heads have been tight. Total goals markets anticipate a slightly open encounter, and the BTTS market leans toward “No,” aligning with the visitors’ kept clean sheets in high-leverage games recently.

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Possible Starting Lineups

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The Verdict

If ever there was a “must-win” for both sides, this is it. Empoli possess just enough attacking punch—especially with Fazzini’s timely interventions—to suggest they’ll edge what’s likely to be a tense, cautious affair. Monza, for all their honest endeavour, have simply lacked the balance, bite, and belief in both penalty areas to trouble the better sides this term. My main prediction is Empoli -1 Asian Handicap, anticipating they’ll capitalise on Monza’s shaky defending and finish their season on a rare high note.

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