Liam Duckstein
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The Coppa Italia kicks off its 2026/27 edition with an intriguing first-round clash at the Stadio Brianteo, where Monza welcome Avellino on August 14. What makes this fixture particularly interesting is the coaching angle: Ivan Juric leads Monza, while Alessandro Nesta takes charge of Avellino. These two coaches know Italian football well, and a cup tie in the summer heat adds an unpredictable edge to proceedings.
Monza enter the tie as the bookmakers’ clear favorite at 57%, backed by home advantage and a stronger recent run. Avellino, though, have been in surprisingly sharp form over the past month, winning four of their last six games. Patrick Cutrone is a player to watch for Monza, having contributed both a goal and an assist in his latest appearance, while Avellino’s Lazio draw showed their attacking intent at the highest level, scoring three times against a top-flight side.
A hot stat worth highlighting: Monza scored 14 goals across their last five matches, averaging nearly three per game. That kind of output in a cup opener against a lower-ranked opponent sets up a strong case for a high-scoring evening.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Coppa Italia 2026/27, Round 1 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadio Brianteo, Monza |
| 🗓️ Date: | 14.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Monza vs Avellino Prediction
Monza are the logical pick to win this match, and the value sits in their high-scoring potential rather than just the win line. Juric’s side averaged nearly three goals per game in their last five outings, including a 4-2 win over Milan Futuro and a 4-3 win against Pro Vercelli. Even in their 3-3 draw with Padova, they were creating and converting chances at will.
Avellino drew 1-1 with Torino and scored three against Lazio, so they are not a side that shuts up shop. That attacking approach could leave them exposed against a Monza attack that has been firing consistently. We predict Monza to win with goals at both ends, making “Both Teams to Score” a strong call alongside an Over 2.5 goals line.
Monza averaged 17 fouls per game across the sample, which is moderate but points to a physical approach under Juric. Avellino, by contrast, had no detailed per-game foul data available, though their style against Torino and Lazio suggested a pressing, direct game. Monza’s pass volume was high at 381 passes per game, which suggests they will control the ball and dictate tempo, creating the conditions for a comfortable if not clean home win.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Monza to Win & Both Teams to Score |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Monza’s last five matches tell the story of a team that scores freely but is not immune to conceding. Their most recent result was a 3-3 draw with Padova, a game where they clearly did not shut the door despite leading at various points. Before that, a 4-2 win over Milan Futuro showed their attacking quality, though a 1-3 loss to Aris Thessaloniki was a reminder of what happens when defensive discipline slips. Their 2-0 win over Galatasaray and 4-3 win over Pro Vercelli round out a stretch of matches that consistently produced goals. Juric’s 4-3-3 setup prioritizes width and pressing, and with Cutrone and Mota leading the line, they carry a genuine threat from multiple positions.
Avellino head into this tie off the back of a 1-1 draw with Torino, which was a creditable result against Serie A opposition. Before that, they suffered a 3-6 defeat to Lazio, but scoring three times in that game shows they are not afraid to attack. A 3-1 win over Real Forio 2014 and a 5-0 demolition of Sambenedettese demonstrated their ability to dominate lower-ranked sides. Their 4-3-1-2 formation under Nesta is compact but dangerous on the counter, and they have won four of their last six games across all competitions. That form earns them respect, even on the road against a higher-ranked opponent.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides met twice in the Serie B 2025/26 Regular Season, splitting the results between them.
| Statistic | Monza | Avellino |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 3 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Monza vs Avellino stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Monza the Favourite
- Moneyline Monza 1.65 | Avellino 4.94
- Draw 3.96
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
Monza’s odds around 1.65 reflect their status as comfortable favorites, though the price is not particularly generous for a straight win bet. The draw at 3.96 is interesting given how unpredictable cup ties can be, but Avellino’s away record and the gap in squad quality make that less appealing. Avellino at 4.94 carries some value if you believe in Nesta’s ability to set up a disciplined side away from home, but we lean toward backing the goals market rather than the outright winner line. The Monza win combined with Over 2.5 goals offers better returns and aligns with both teams’ recent scoring trends.
Avellino. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Monza Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Demba Thiam
- DF: Samuele Birindelli, Andrea Carboni, Lorenzo Lucchesi, Filippo Delli Carri
- MF: Matteo Pessina, Andrea Colpani, Eddy Kouadio
- FW: Dany Mota, Patrick Cutrone, Nicolas Galazzi
Juric is likely to deploy his standard 4-3-3, with Demba Thiam as first-choice goalkeeper after logging 63 minutes in the last match. Andrea Carboni is worth watching at the back, having scored in his most recent appearance and carrying a threat from set pieces. Patrick Cutrone leads the attack with one goal and one assist in his last outing, making him the focal point of Monza’s forward play. Matteo Pessina anchors the midfield with composure and distribution, keeping the team organized in possession.
Avellino Possible Starting Eleven
No player data is currently available for Avellino’s recent lineups. Alessandro Nesta is expected to field his preferred 4-3-1-2 setup, but confirmed selections will depend on fitness assessments closer to kickoff.
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Monza. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Monza are the stronger side on paper and at home, and their recent scoring form makes them a reliable pick to win. Their 14 goals across five matches is a number that stands out, and Avellino’s willingness to attack means this should not be a cagey affair. We predict Monza to win comfortably, with goals coming at both ends. The best value play is Monza to win combined with Both Teams to Score, supported by an Over 2.5 goals line. Cutrone and Carboni are the players most likely to make the difference for the hosts, while Avellino’s front two in the 4-3-1-2 could cause problems on the counter if Monza’s backline switches off, as it did against Padova.
To be honest, the cup format adds a layer of uncertainty, but the quality gap and home advantage are too significant to ignore. We back Monza to progress.
