Liam Duckstein
Modena hosts Reggiana at Alberto Braglia as both teams look to break out of inconsistent runs in the Serie B regular season. With Modena trying to hold onto a playoff spot and Reggiana desperate to move clear of the relegation zone, this Emilia-Romagna derby brings plenty of tension and a high-stakes subplot. Both sides rely on a three-at-the-back formation, but Modena’s home record and attacking intent stand out. An intriguing element is Reggiana’s ability to frustrate higher-ranked teams, recently holding Palermo to a draw.
Two players to keep an eye on: Giuseppe Ambrosino for Modena, a forward who has shown flashes of productivity, and Mathis Lambourde of Reggiana, who has chipped in with goals despite his side’s struggles. Their performances may tip the balance.
Hot stat: Modena has produced 79 total shots in their last five matches, more than double Reggiana’s tally, underlining their proactive attacking style at home.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie B 2025/26 Regular Season, Italy |
| 🏟 Venue: | Alberto Braglia, Modena |
| 🗓️ Date: | 01.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:00 CEST |
Modena vs Reggiana prediction
We predict Modena to win this clash. The home side’s recent form does not sparkle, but their underlying stats—especially shot volume and pass accuracy—hint at more quality in both creation and ball retention. Reggiana’s defence is leaky, and their 54 goals conceded this season reflect persistent vulnerabilities. Modena’s disciplined midfield, with the likes of Yanis Massolin and Simone Santoro, should control possession and tempo. Reggiana may look to spring forward through Lambourde, but the hosts’ pressure and energy at home give them the edge.
Looking at style, Modena commits more fouls and picks up more yellow cards, revealing a combative approach. Their passing accuracy (82%) dwarfs Reggiana’s (72%), suggesting they are more comfortable building attacks. Expect Modena to pin Reggiana back and force mistakes, though both sides are prone to defensive lapses. Reggiana’s recent red cards and low shot count further stack the odds against them.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Modena to win & Over 2.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Modena’s recent games have been frustrating. They have not managed a win in their last five matches, recording three losses and two draws. Their latest outing, a 0-1 home defeat against Monza, highlighted their struggle to convert possession into goals. The team managed plenty of attempts but lacked precision in the final third. Defensive lapses have been costly, but the overall build-up play remains positive and patient. The midfield remains active in transition, but goal output must improve for a decisive playoff push.
Reggiana, on the other hand, comes off a 1-1 draw with Palermo. This result looks good on paper, given Palermo’s high league position, but it fits a pattern: Reggiana compete well in isolated matches but fail to string together results. Their only win in the last five came against Carrarese, with Lambourde offering attacking spark. Defensive disorganisation and a lack of midfield resistance continue to undermine their efforts, often leading to them conceding early and chasing the game.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Modena | Reggiana |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1 |
| Total shots | 79 | 35 |
| Free kicks | 5 | 2 |
| Corner kicks | 27 | 10 |
| Total fouls | 79 | 61 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 82 | 72 |
| Interceptions | 31 | 29 |
| Offsides | 4 | 12 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Modena vs Reggiana stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Modena the favourite
- Moneyline Modena 1.71 | Reggiana 4.55
- Draw 3.90
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.08 | Under 2.5 1.78
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.03 | No 1.81
Modena’s odds are justified by their superior league position and home stats. The draw has value only if Modena continue wasting chances, but Reggiana’s defensive issues tilt the value to the home win. Over 2.5 goals is attractively priced—both teams can concede, and Modena usually creates enough to see a higher scoreline. BTTS is a riskier bet, but Reggiana have scored in all but one of their last five away games.
Possible Starting Lineups
Modena possible starting eleven
- GK: Michele Pezzolato
- DF: Bryant Nieling, Alessandro Dellavalle, Daniel Tonoli
- MF: Yanis Massolin, Simone Santoro, Steven Nador, Fabio Gerli, Gady Beyuku
- FW: Giuseppe Ambrosino, Manuel De Luca
This lineup reflects the most consistent picks by coach Sottil. Pezzolato should start in goal with a back three of Nieling, Dellavalle, and Tonoli. The midfield is both hard-working and technical, with Massolin and Santoro offering drive, supported by Nador, Gerli, and Beyuku. Ambrosino and De Luca spearhead the attack, both capable of troubling Reggiana’s backline. Expect Modena to maintain their 3-5-2 shape, keeping width and pressing high.
Reggiana possible starting eleven
- GK: Alessandro Micai
- DF: Lorenzo Libutti, Tobías Reinhart, Francesco Vicari
- MF: Manolo Portanova, Massimo Bertagnoli, Kleis Bozhanaj, Simone Bonetti, Mateus Lusuardi
- FW: Mathis Lambourde, Cedric Gondo
Micai should return in goal after consistent appearances. The defence could see Libutti, Reinhart, and Vicari forming a back three. The midfield is likely to feature Portanova, Bertagnoli, Bozhanaj, Bonetti, and Lusuardi, all of whom have featured regularly. Up front, Lambourde and Gondo carry most of the scoring burden. Coach Bisoli is expected to stick with the 3-5-2 setup to counter Modena’s formation and protect a fragile defence. Watch out for Lambourde’s runs behind the lines and Portanova’s ability to break forward.
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Reggiana. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Modena will secure a home victory. Their shot volume, structured midfield, and sharper passing put them in pole position. Reggiana’s inconsistency and defensive fragility have dogged them all season. Our punters expect an open game, with both sides finding the net, but Modena’s control in midfield and attacking output will see them through. The over 2.5 goals market also looks tempting.
