Mirassol vs Flamengo RJ Prediction: 16 August 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro Série A

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Mirassol host Flamengo RJ at José Maria de Campos Maia on Matchday 22 of the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026. The hosts sit 16th, just three points above the relegation zone, while Flamengo arrive as second-placed contenders breathing down Palmeiras’ neck. These two sides met twice in the 2025 Série A, producing a 1-2 Flamengo win and a wild 3-3 draw, so goals cannot be ruled out even against a side of Flamengo’s quality. Samuel Lino leads the visitors’ attacking press with 20 shots across five games, making him the most active shooter in this fixture by a distance.

Mirassol vs Flamengo RJ Prediction

Flamengo are the clear value pick here. They are unbeaten in their last six matches, winning three and drawing three, and they have scored in every one of those games. Their 9 goals across the last five league matches against 5 for Mirassol reflects the gap in attacking quality. Leonardo Jardim’s side also generates 77 total shots over five games compared to Mirassol’s 59, and their pass accuracy of 2730 completed passes versus 1829 for the hosts confirms Flamengo’s structural dominance.

Mirassol have been inconsistent, winning just 2 of their last 7 matches. Their defensive record at home is under pressure: they have conceded 30 goals in 21 league games and hold just 23 points in 16th place. Rafael Guanaes sets up in a 4-2-3-1 that can be compact, but Flamengo’s 4-2-3-1 presses high and circulates the ball with precision. Mirassol commit 65 fouls in five matches and collect 11 yellow cards, suggesting they resort to physicality when outplayed technically, which suits Flamengo’s transition game.

Flamengo’s 6 yellow cards and 64 fouls over the same period show they are disciplined without being passive. Their interception count of 37 is lower than Mirassol’s 63, reflecting a possession-based approach rather than a press-heavy defensive style. We predict Flamengo to win, with both teams scoring as a strong secondary angle given the 3-3 history between these sides.

• Main tip: Flamengo RJ to win
• Value pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes
• Goals market: Over 2.5 Goals

Team Analysis

Mirassol have played seven matches in the last 30 days, picking up two wins, two losses, and three draws. Their recent five-match run includes a 2-1 home win over Remo, a 1-1 draw with Gremio (twice across two separate competitions), a 1-3 loss to Cruzeiro, and a 1-1 draw with LDU Quito. The defeat to Cruzeiro exposed their vulnerability against technical, possession-heavy sides, which is precisely the profile Flamengo carry. Bruno Santos de Oliveira leads the attack with 7 shots and a goal, and João Victor Carroll Santana adds defensive coverage with 9 interceptions across five games. Their reliance on set pieces and physical duels may limit them against Flamengo’s organized backline.

Flamengo RJ enter this fixture on the back of a 1-1 draw with Cruzeiro, following a 2-0 win over Vitoria and a 1-1 draw with Internacional. They have not lost in six matches. Pedro has scored twice in five games and taken 11 shots, making him the focal point of Flamengo’s attacking structure. Samuel Lino’s 20 shots across five matches is the standout individual stat in this entire dataset, and his 1 goal and 1 assist confirm he converts chances. Jorginho pulls the strings from deep with 414 passes and 9 free kicks earned, giving Flamengo a controlled tempo that Mirassol will struggle to disrupt for 90 minutes.

🚨Check out our dedicated Mirassol vs Flamengo RJ stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Flamengo RJ the favourite

• Moneyline Mirassol 4.20 | Flamengo RJ 1.88
• Draw 3.50

Pinnacle’s 4.45 on Mirassol and 1.88 on Flamengo reflect the genuine quality gap between these sides. The bookmaker average of 50% probability for a Flamengo win is well-supported by the form data: Flamengo are second in the table with 42 points, six wins in their last 10 league matches, and a goal difference of +21. Mirassol at 4.20 on most major books represents fair market pricing for a team with a 33% win rate this season. The draw at 3.50 is a reasonable nod to Mirassol’s resilience at home, but Flamengo’s unbeaten run and superior squad depth make backing the visitors at under 2.0 the most logical play on the board.

Possible Starting Lineups

Mirassol possible starting eleven

Rafael Guanaes is expected to deploy a 4-2-3-1 built around defensive compactness. Alex Muralha starts in goal, having featured in all five recent matches. Reinaldo and João Victor Carroll Santana provide overlapping width from the fullback positions, with Reinaldo already contributing a goal and an assist this run. Denilson Alves Borges and Neto Moura screen the defence as a double pivot. Bruno Santos de Oliveira is the forward to watch, carrying the most attacking threat with 7 shots and a goal from deep-lying runs.

Flamengo RJ possible starting eleven

Leonardo Jardim sets up in a 4-2-3-1 with Agustín Rossi as a reliable last line, having made 8 saves across five games. Léo Pereira anchors the centre of defence and has contributed a goal and an assist, making him a threat from set pieces. Jorginho and Erick Pulgar form a deep midfield partnership, with Jorginho’s 414 passes and 9 free kicks earned driving Flamengo’s tempo. Pedro leads the line as the focal striker with 2 goals and 11 shots, but Samuel Lino is the most dangerous mover in this team, combining 20 shots with a goal and an assist from wide positions. His direct running will test Mirassol’s fullbacks throughout.

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The Verdict

Flamengo RJ are the standout pick for this fixture. Their unbeaten six-match run, superior passing volume, and Pedro-Lino attacking combination give them the tools to break down a Mirassol side that has won just 2 of its last 7. Mirassol’s tendency to foul frequently and accumulate yellow cards will only create more space for Flamengo’s transitions. The 3-3 from their last meeting and Mirassol’s willingness to attack at home keep the Both Teams to Score market alive, to be honest. We predict a Flamengo win with goals at both ends, making the Flamengo Win and BTTS combination the best value on the board at around 2.50-2.80 depending on the bookmaker.

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