Milan vs Verona Prediction: 28.12.2025 Serie A 2025/26

The San Siro prepares to welcome two sides on diverging trajectories as Milan look to keep pace with Inter at the summit, while Verona fight to claw their way out of a relegation scrap. Fans won’t forget last season’s encounters, both tight affairs clinched by Milan, and that sets the stage for another fascinating battle between Allegri’s high-calibre, tactically flexible Milan and Zanetti’s spirited but inconsistent Verona. Interestingly, Milan’s only home defeat this term came against a top-four side, so will Verona catch them cold or will history repeat itself?

Eyes will be glued to Christian Pulisic, whose directness and flair have reinvigorated Milan’s attacking phases, as well as Gift Orban—a rare bright spot for Verona, whose movement and finishing have provided vital, if sporadic, moments of hope.

Hot Stat: In their last five Serie A matches, Milan have registered 54 successful tackles and a staggering 2,788 passes at an accuracy of 89.5 percent—a measure of just how well-drilled they remain in possession and transition.

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Milan vs Verona prediction

This fixture tilts strongly in Milan’s favour, not just by virtue of their home advantage, but thanks to a set of compelling numbers. Milan’s ball retention (nearly 2,800 passes in their last five) and an 89.5 percent pass completion underpin a controlled style that suffocates lesser sides. With Verona conceding more than a goal per game and lacking consistency up front (just 13 goals all season), the likelihood of a home win swells further.

We can reasonably expect Milan to dominate possession and territory, pressuring Verona’s backline with the combined thrust of Pulisic, Rafael Leao and support from full-backs in their favoured 3-5-2 shape. Verona, meanwhile, have averaged 55 fouls and collected 10 yellow cards in their last five matches, highlighting a combative but often desperate approach—one that could see them overrun in midfield if Milan move the ball quickly.

Bookmakers reflect this gulf, pricing Milan at 1.36–1.41 for a win and Verona as outliers at 8.0 and upwards, while the draw floats above 4.7. Given Milan’s form and tactical maturity, a two-goal victory is within reach, with Verona perhaps snatching a consolation if Orban or Giovane can find a decisive moment.

Team Analysis

Milan Recent Form:
Milan have had a turbulent yet overall positive run, most recently falling 0-2 to Napoli—a rare misstep, given their 9 wins and 5 draws from 15 league matches. Before that, they let a lead slip to draw 2-2 with Sassuolo and edged past Torino 3-2 in a thrilling encounter marked by persistent pressing and sharp transitions. Defensively, Milan have been solid, with Tomori and Pavlovic marshaling the backline and Maignan providing assuredness in goal, making the side difficult to penetrate, bar the occasional lapse against elite opposition. Offensively, plenty runs through Pulisic and Leao, the latter’s direct play one of their best attacking outlets.

Verona Recent Form:
Verona’s results—two wins, two defeats and a draw in the last five—paint the picture of a side striving for, but struggling with, stability. Their most recent outing, a timely 2-1 victory over Fiorentina, showed flashes of potential. Before that, however, defeats to Atalanta, Genoa, and Parma exposed defensive weaknesses, particularly when forced to chase the game. Gift Orban and Giovane Santana Do Nascimento offer a smattering of attacking firepower, but midfield control remains an issue against better sides. They’ll need more than grit to counter Milan’s technical superiority here.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Milan vs Verona stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Milan the favourite

• Moneyline Milan 1.36–1.41 | Verona 8.00–9.50
• Draw 4.50–4.96
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.72 | Under 2.5 2.10
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.35 | No 1.53

Milan are deserved favourites, reflected in both the odds and their league position. The narrow range for the home win implies strong confidence in Allegri’s side. Verona’s meagre away form and low goalscoring output reinforce the expectation of a one-sided encounter, while the underdog odds offer little value against their current winrate. The Over 2.5 market could see value if Milan assert themselves early, while BTTS No appears judicious—Verona have struggled to breach better-organised defences all season.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Milan possible starting eleven

Milan are expected to stick with their tried-and-tested 3-5-2, accentuating solidity and numbers in the middle while allowing Leao and Pulisic freedom to interchange up top. Tomori and Pavlovic’s partnership gives an assured base, while the blend of experience and athleticism in midfield—Modric’s metronomic presence, Rabiot’s physicality, and Loftus-Cheek’s forward runs—should hand Milan control. Pulisic remains the x-factor; his form and versatility mean Verona’s defence will be on high alert throughout.

Verona possible starting eleven

Verona are likely to also line up in a 3-5-2, aiming to plug gaps in central areas while giving Orban and Giovane license to break forward. Belghali’s recent returns make him a defensive and set-piece threat, while Bernede and Niasse will have their hands full screening against Milan’s incisive passing. Montipò’s shot-stopping will be severely tested if Milan get their rhythm. Ultimately, Verona’s hope hinges on quick transitions and capitalising on Milan’s occasional lapses in concentration.

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My take on the Match

All signs point toward a dominant Milan display—a clean sheet, multiple goals, and a reaffirmation of their title credentials. The blend of tactical discipline, technical skill and home crowd momentum should see Allegri’s charges dispatch Verona with relative comfort. Our main pick: Milan -1.5 Asian Handicap, while adventurous punters might even consider correct scores in the 2-0 or 3-0 region. Verona will battle, but unless their attacking stars conjure something magical, a repeat of last season’s narrow Milan wins is the most probable storyline, only with perhaps a touch more flair from the Rossoneri.

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