Milan vs Pisa Prediction: 24.10.2025 Serie A 2025/26 Preview

The eyes of Italian football turn to San Siro as Milan welcome Pisa for this Serie A encounter. While league positions suggest a mismatch, there’s a quiet intrigue to this clash: Milan are top of the table and unbeaten in five, but Pisa—rock bottom yet repeatedly frustrating stronger sides—have a tenacity that belies their points tally. Massimiliano Allegri is eager to consolidate Milan’s title credentials, whilst Alberto Gilardino’s Pisa will scrap for every inch, having drawn two of their last three. With both teams running a 3-5-2 formation, the tactical battle in midfield could decide the tempo and ultimately the outcome.

Among the players to watch, Milan’s Rafael Leao has been clinical with two goals from his last three and flashes of brilliance that can crack any defence. On the Pisa side, M’Bala Nzola may have just a single goal in his last four but shows the movement and opportunism needed to test a disciplined Milan backline.

The “hot stat”? Milan have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches, including shut-outs against Juve and Udinese—a firmness at the back that Pisa’s stuttering attack (just two goals scored in five) will need something special to break down.

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Milan vs Pisa prediction

With Milan in imperious form (four wins and a draw in their last five) and Pisa yet to taste victory this month, the value clearly sides with the Rossoneri. Milan’s defensive steel, complemented by Leao’s current attacking flourish, suggests a home victory is the optimal pick. Pisa’s struggles in front of goal (just two scored, 66 fouls committed, and nine yellow cards in the last five) suggest their threat will be sporadic at best—while Milan’s midfield dominance (2,044 passes at 89% accuracy across five games) should see them control possession and territory.

Expect Milan’s relentless press and tactical discipline under Allegri to suffocate Pisa’s build-up. That said, Pisa’s physical approach—averaging well over 13 fouls per match with a pair of red cards this month—could shackle Milan’s attack occasionally, but also leave them exposed to quick Rossoneri counters. I anticipate Milan to triumph, likely to nil, but the match tempo may swing with the whistle and flow of cards.

Team Analysis

Milan – Recent Games

Milan have looked sharp and measured, beating Fiorentina 2-1 in their last outing. The result followed a classic display of discipline and transitional brilliance, with solid midfield support allowing Rafael Leao and Christian Pulisic to shine. Prior to that, a tense 0-0 with Juventus and another impressive 2-1 win over Napoli demonstrated this side’s ability to adapt to more robust opposition, while their 3-0 victories over Lecce and Udinese highlighted the clinical edge they maintain against struggling sides. Defensive organisation is typified by Fikayo Tomori and Maignan in goal, while ball retention has been exceptional.

Pisa – Recent Games

It’s a different story for Pisa, who have battled through a difficult run—drawing 0-0 at home with Verona in their previous match, offering nothing in front of goal. In the five most recent games, they’ve managed only two goals, with a heavy 0-4 home defeat to Bologna underlining defensive weaknesses and a toothless draw with Fiorentina compounding confidence issues. Their attacking play has been blunted, with long spells of possession failing to create danger. While Nzola offers a rare spark of movement up front, Pisa’s shape too often collapses under sustained pressure, leading to a flood of cards and set pieces conceded.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Milan vs Pisa stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Milan the favourite

• Moneyline Milan 1.30 | Pisa 10.00
• Draw 5.60
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.95 | Under 2.5 1.80
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.50 | No 1.72

The bookmakers see Milan as overwhelming favourites, mirrored in the 73% win probability. Pisa’s odds (10.00) reflect their tough situation—without a win, struggling to score, and conceding heavily in recent matches. The over/under is fairly balanced, suggesting uncertainty over Pisa’s defensive resistance, but the strong “BTTS No” leans into Milan’s recent defensive solidity. Factoring in present form and squad depth, Milan’s price is short, yet justified—Pisa would require an extraordinary turnaround to cause an upset.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Milan possible starting eleven

Milan’s likely 3-5-2 sees Maignan in goal, Tomori anchoring a strong back three, and the dynamic Bartesaghi and Pulisic providing width. Modrić and Fofana will aim to control tempo, while Leao’s pace and Gimenez’s predatory instincts lead the line. One to watch especially is Pulisic, whose late runs and combination play often unlock stubborn defences. The structure offers flexibility—expect Allegri to switch seamlessly between attack and containment depending on situation.

Pisa possible starting eleven

Gilardino favours a 3-5-2, too, with Šemper crucial in goal and veteran Albiol offering calm amidst the defensive storm. Cuadrado will be vital driving transitions, while Nczieola and Lucas work the channels in search of scraps. Watch for Akinsanmiro’s energy—his ability to break up play may prove key in blunting Milan’s midfield. Discipline will be paramount for Pisa, as excessive cards could quickly tilt the match in Milan’s favour.

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My take on the Match

Milan look poised to dominate both the ball and the result, spearheaded by Leao and an exceptional supporting cast. Pisa’s defensive frailties and inability to protect their own area may leave Šemper too exposed—especially as Milan’s wide men and full-backs press high. The most likely script sees Milan outpacing and outclassing Pisa, securing a routine victory and reinforcing their status as early title favourites. Our main pick? Milan to cover the Asian handicap, with a comfortable win to nil.

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