Rafael Nogueira
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Milan open their Europa League League Phase campaign at San Siro against a Benfica side that has not lost a single match in a month. Ruben Amorim’s rebuilt Rossoneri arrive unbeaten in their last five outings but have drawn two of them, while Marco Silva’s Eagles have won every one of their last seven fixtures across competitions. The interesting wrinkle here: Benfica have scored 15 goals in their last five matches compared to Milan’s 7, despite Milan being installed as the clear bookmaker favourite at 44% implied probability.
Adrien Rabiot has been Milan’s most productive attacker of late, combining for a goal and two assists across his last four appearances, and his positioning between the lines could be the difference against a Benfica midfield that presses aggressively. For the visitors, Gianluca Prestianni has been unstoppable, netting five goals in his last five games, a one-goal-per-match rate that no player on either roster can match. Watch how Milan’s back four copes with his movement off the left channel.
Hot stat: Prestianni’s five goals in five matches is the standout number in this data set, and it comes with an assist attached, making him directly responsible for six of Benfica’s last 15 goals scored.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2026/27, League Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | San Siro / Giuseppe Meazza, Milan |
| 🗓️ Date: | 16.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Milan vs Benfica prediction
We lean toward Benfica Draw No Bet as the best value angle here. Milan’s home odds sit around 2.05, which prices in a lot of trust for a side that has drawn two of its last five games and scored only seven goals in that span. Benfica, by contrast, have won seven straight, scored freely against weaker and stronger opposition alike, and their underlying shot volume (89 attempts in five games versus Milan’s 54) suggests the away price of roughly 3.25 undervalues them. To be honest, backing the outright away win is tempting, but insuring against a draw feels like the smarter route given San Siro’s atmosphere in a competition opener.
Style-wise, Benfica commit more fouls (58 to Milan’s 42) and pick up a similar card count despite the extra physical output, a sign of an aggressive pressing scheme rather than reckless defending. Milan’s pass accuracy sits around 88%, almost identical to Benfica’s 88%, so neither side should dominate territorially. Benfica’s corner count (40 across five games versus Milan’s 12) points to a team that generates far more sustained pressure, which supports both the goals market and our corners pick below.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Benfica Draw No Bet |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Milan’s last outing ended 2-2 against Lazio, a result that continues a pattern of dropped points against mid-table opposition. Across their last five games Amorim’s side won three, drawing the other two, with the Lazio and Juventus stalemates showing a team that struggles to close out matches once ahead. The 4-2 win over Manchester United remains their most convincing display in this stretch, but consistency has been the issue.
Benfica closed out their last match with a 3-1 win over Gil Vicente, stretching their unbeaten run to seven. In our preview of Benfica vs Gil Vicente we called a heavy home win with a clean sheet, and the 3-1 scoreline delivered on the win and the margin but missed on the BTTS No side of that pick since Gil Vicente found the net. Prestianni and Pavlidis have carried the attacking weight through this run, and Silva’s side has not lost since before this current seven-match streak began.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Milan and Benfica have no recent competitive meetings in our records, this fixture marks their first documented clash in this data set.
🚨Check out our dedicated Milan vs Benfica stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Milan the favourite
- Moneyline Milan 2.05 | Benfica 3.25
- Draw 3.50
The market clearly leans Milan at home, with odds around 2.05 reflecting the 44% implied probability from bookmakers. Benfica’s price near 3.25 looks generous given their form, and we suspect the market is weighting San Siro home advantage more heavily than Benfica’s seven-match winning streak deserves. The draw price around 3.50 is worth a glance given both teams’ tendency toward tight, high-possession contests.
Possible Starting Lineups
Milan possible starting eleven
- GK: Mike Maignan
- DF: Koni De Winter, Strahinja Pavlovic, Pervis Estupinan, Davide Bartesaghi
- MF: Ardon Jashari, Yunus Musah, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Samuel Chukwueze, Adrien Rabiot
- FW: Christian Pulisic
Amorim keeps his 4-2-3-1 shape intact, leaning on the same group that has started every recent fixture. Rabiot’s late runs from midfield give Milan an extra scoring threat, while Pulisic’s movement up top should test Benfica’s back three in behind.
Benfica possible starting eleven
- GK: Anatoliy Trubin
- DF: Tomás Araújo, Clément Lenglet, Samuel Dahl
- MF: Leandro Barreiro, Enzo Barrenechea, Heorhii Sudakov, Rafa Silva
- FW: Andreas Schjelderup, Gianluca Prestianni, Vangelis Pavlidis
Silva sticks with the 3-4-2-1 that has powered the winning run, pairing Schjelderup and Prestianni behind Pavlidis. That front three has produced ten of Benfica’s last 15 goals, making them the focal point of any Milan defensive plan.
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Benfica. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Benfica avoid defeat at San Siro, backed by their scoring output and unbeaten run against Milan’s inconsistent recent form. Perhaps Milan grab an early goal given home advantage, but Benfica’s attacking trio has the quality to answer back. Our punters team sides with Benfica Draw No Bet, Over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes as the combination that best reflects both sides’ underlying numbers.
Read also: Milan vs Benfica Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form (Updated September 2026)
Read also: Milan vs Benfica: Predicted Line-ups, Confirmed Absentees & Team News
