Liam Duckstein
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Midtjylland welcome Ajax to the MCH Arena with both clubs sitting in unfamiliar territory in the league phase table. The Danes have taken just a single point from their opening two games despite riding a long unbeaten run domestically, while Ajax arrive having lost their league phase opener but won four of their last five matches in all competitions. Perhaps the most interesting wrinkle here is the gap in passing quality: Ajax have completed almost 88% of their passes over the last five matches, Midtjylland sit closer to 79%, and that technical difference tends to matter once possession becomes a weapon rather than a stat.
Keep an eye on Tolu Arokodare for Ajax. He has scored three goals in his last five appearances and looks like the focal point of Míchel’s attack whenever Ajax break forward with pace. On the home side, Sofus Johannesen has been Midtjylland’s most dangerous creative outlet, contributing two goals and taking a team-high 13 free kicks across the last five games, a genuine set-piece threat against a side that has conceded from dead balls before.
Hot stat: Ajax have racked up 2,673 total passes at roughly 87.8% accuracy in their last five matches compared to Midtjylland’s 2,103 passes at around 79.1%. That gap in ball control, built up before a single shot is even attempted, tells us plenty about how this game could be decided in midfield.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27, League Phase |
| 🗓️ Date: | 05.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:45 CEST |
Midtjylland vs Ajax prediction
We’re leaning toward Ajax to win this one, and we like pairing that with both teams scoring. Midtjylland’s recent domestic form is strong on paper, but their league phase showing so far, a draw and a loss, suggests a step up in class is exposing some cracks. Ajax have won four of their last five games overall and their squad simply moves the ball with more purpose. That said, Midtjylland have scored in four of their last five matches too, so a clean sheet for the visitors feels unlikely in Herning.
Both sides foul at a similar rate, 60 for Midtjylland against 57 for Ajax over the last five matches, and both have picked up exactly eight yellow cards in that span, so discipline should not swing this one heavily either way. Where it gets interesting is the ball retention gap we mentioned earlier. Ajax’s superior pass accuracy, combined with a corner count of 21 against Midtjylland’s 24, points to a game where the hosts might generate more set-piece chances while Ajax control longer spells of open play. That mix of styles tends to produce goals at both ends rather than a one-sided scoreline.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Tolu Arokodare to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Midtjylland’s last outing produced a 3-2 win over Nordsjaelland, a result that fits their pattern this season of winning games while still leaking goals. Across their last five matches they’ve scored 10 times but conceded enough to make clean sheets rare, including a 0-1 home defeat to Sint Truidense that stands out as their only loss in that stretch. In our preview of Midtjylland vs Sint Truidense we backed the hosts to win while also expecting goals at both ends, and the 0-1 result went against us on both counts, a reminder that Midtjylland’s attack can go quiet against well-organized away sides.
Ajax head into Herning off the back of a tidy 1-0 win over AZ Alkmaar, their fourth victory in five matches. The run includes a 2-0 win over Atalanta and a 5-2 thrashing of Groningen, showing a team capable of putting games away comfortably when their front line clicks. In our preview of Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax we called an Ajax win with goals shared at both ends, and the 2-1 scoreline delivered exactly that, which gives us confidence in reading this current Ajax side correctly heading into the Conference League trip.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Midtjylland and Ajax have no recent competitive meetings on record, so there is no past head-to-head data to lean on for this preview. This fixture will mark a fresh chapter between the two clubs at this level.
🚨Check out our dedicated Midtjylland vs Ajax stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Ajax the favourite
- Moneyline Midtjylland 2.62 | Ajax 2.40
- Draw 3.71
Bookmakers give Ajax the edge at 39% against Midtjylland’s 36%, with the draw sitting at 25%. Those tight margins reflect a genuinely close match on paper, but the underlying stats, particularly passing accuracy and recent attacking output, support Ajax holding a slight advantage. We would not be surprised if the draw price drifted shorter before kickoff given how evenly matched these two sides look in the standings.
Possible Starting Lineups
Midtjylland possible starting eleven
- GK: Nordin Bakker
- DF: Mads Bech Sørensen, Rasmus Kristensen, Ousmane Diao, Andreas Maxsø
- MF: Pedro Bravo, Kjell-Arik Wätjen, Sofus Johannesen, Philip Billing, Hong Hyun-Seok
- FW: Friday Etim
Mike Tullberg has stuck with a 4-2-3-1 shape in recent matches and we expect that to continue here. Bakker has started every game in goal with 25 saves to his name, while Johannesen’s set-piece deliveries from the number 10 role could be the home side’s main route to goal against a technically superior visiting midfield.
Ajax possible starting eleven
- GK: Marc-André ter Stegen
- DF: Owen Wijndal, Youri Baas, Lucas Oliveira Rosa, Aaron Bouwman
- MF: Sofyan Amrabat, Davy Klaassen, Julian Brandt, Jorthy Mokio, Abdellah Ouazane
- FW: Tolu Arokodare
Míchel Sánchez also favors a 4-2-3-1 setup, and with Amrabat anchoring midfield alongside Klaassen, the front four of Brandt, Mokio, Ouazane and Arokodare have combined for nine goals over the last five matches. Arokodare’s movement up front should be the biggest concern for Midtjylland’s back line on the night.
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Midtjylland. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Ajax edge this one, probably by a 2-1 scoreline, with Midtjylland’s attacking players finding the net but their defense struggling to contain Arokodare and company. The passing numbers and recent form both tilt in Ajax’s favor, and Midtjylland’s one league phase point from two games shows they have not yet found their rhythm at this level. To be honest, backing Ajax alongside both teams to score offers better value than the straight moneyline price, given how often Midtjylland have scored even in defeat this season.
