Mauritius vs Libya Prediction: 13.10.2025 FIFA World Cup CAF Qualification 2026 Preview

It’s a decisive evening at Brann Stadion in Bergen as Mauritius faces Libya in the last matchday of the FIFA World Cup CAF Qualification Group D. While Mauritius have struggled to find their rhythm in this campaign, Libya arrives with more momentum and qualification ambitions still mathematically alive. An important storyline for this clash centers around Libya’s renewed attacking vigor—recent results point to a side capable of overwhelming struggling defenses, whereas Mauritius remains determined to salvage pride and disrupt the group hierarchy.

Key figures to keep an eye on include Mauritius’ experienced midfielder Kevin Bru, whose leadership and ball retention could provide much-needed composure, and Libya’s Ezzeddine Maryami, a forward with an eye for goal and fresh off a scoring performance against Cape Verde. The midfield battle, particularly involving Ahmed Saleh for Libya, will be crucial in dictating who controls possession and territory.

The “hot stat” here is Libya’s 3-goal haul against Cape Verde in their recent 3-3 draw—a tangible marker of their attacking potential and resilience against a higher-ranked opponent.

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Mauritius vs Libya prediction

The bookmakers are overwhelmingly backing Libya, and for good reason. Libya’s form—one defeat in their last five, and an average of 1.2 goals scored per game—is in stark contrast to a Mauritius team with a winless record across 2025 and only a single goal in their last three fixtures. Libya are likely to make their attacking dominance count, especially with Ezzeddine Maryami in fine scoring form and their squad showing composure in tight contests. Mauritius, despite showing promise in midfield organization, often struggle to create real chances and their defensive frailties are a concern.

Statistically, Libya are more disciplined in midfield with better control shown in previous games, while Mauritius’ tendency to concede possession may play into their hands. Both teams have shown high foul counts and several bookings in prior matches, hinting at the potential for a physical encounter—but Libya’s sharper conversion rate in front of goal tips this contest in their favor. Expect Libya to dictate the pace through sustained ball possession (evident from passing stats in recent games) and to capitalize on set-piece opportunities, as seen by their 6 corners won in the last match.

Team Analysis

Mauritius: Recent outings have been challenging, with a 0-2 loss to Cameroon their latest result. Mauritius deployed their familiar 5-4-1 formation, aiming for solidity. However, struggles in transition and lack of attacking thrust were evident—over their last three fixtures, Mauritius has scored just one goal while yielding seven. Defensive lapses and low shot creation remain persistent problems. The squad has rotated heavily, yet few players have consistently seized their chances.

Libya: In sharp contrast, Libya showcased attacking ambition in their entertaining 3-3 draw versus Cape Verde. Employing a flexible 4-2-3-1, they pressed high and created numerous chances, as indicated by their 12 total shots. Two different goal scorers, including Maryami, illustrate their offensive depth. Before that, Libya notched a controlled 2-0 win against Eswatini, also keeping a clean sheet. Importantly, their midfield was dynamic, breaking the opponent’s lines and creating danger through wide play and set pieces.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Mauritius vs Libya stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Libya the favourite

• Moneyline Mauritius 8.25 | Libya 1.49
• Draw 3.75
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.05 | Under 2.5 1.90
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.40 | No 1.48

Libya’s strong win probability (61 percent) from bookmakers is justified—Mauritius’ lack of attacking threat and recent defensive lapses contrast with Libya’s goal-scoring momentum. The low odds on Libya further underline their clear favorite status, while the longer prices for Mauritius reflect their extended winless streak. The market expectation of at least three goals is driven by Libya’s attacking output and Mauritius’ defensive inconsistencies.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Mauritius possible starting eleven

Mauritius are expected to retain a 5-4-1 formation to bolster their backline, with Chiotti in goal offering experience. Defensive consistency comes from Rose and Collard. Kevin Bru’s playmaking is key, while Aristide could provide pace up front. This lineup aims to absorb pressure and threaten on the counter, albeit with limited firepower based on recent results.

Libya possible starting eleven

Libya are set to line up in their preferred 4-2-3-1 formation, starting Murad Al Woheshi between the posts. The defensive duo of Saleh and Madyen are reliable, while Mahmoud Al Shilw brings creativity and Maryami spearheads the attack. Mohammed Soulah’s movement and Alhibeeshi’s ball-winning ability make Libya’s midfield notably dynamic. Expect high pressing and aggressive wing play in this configuration.

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My take on the Match

Given all data and statistical insights, my main pick for this encounter is Libya -1 Asian Handicap. Libya’s recent performances and attacking improvement, evidenced by their three-goal draw with Cape Verde, outmatch Mauritius’ current output across all lines. While Mauritius may play with resilience and discipline, their limited attacking threat and tendency to concede under pressure are likely to prove decisive. If you’re searching for value, backing over 2.5 goals also appeals, considering the defensive frailties on display. This is a must-win match for Libya to close their campaign on a high—expect them to start strong and impose their quality.

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