Marseille vs Lens Prediction: 24.01.2026 Ligue 1

On 24 January 2026, Orange Vélodrome will host a high-stakes clash as Marseille take on table-topping Lens in a crucial Ligue 1 fixture. Both sides have showcased ambitious football this season, but recent form, tactical set-ups, and individual brilliance set an intriguing stage. One notable thread running into the match is Lens’ spectacular unbeaten run this month, while Marseille are seeking to reassert their home dominance after some inconsistent performances.

Eyes will naturally fall on Marseille’s Mason Greenwood, who has netted five goals in his last five appearances, providing dynamism and sharp finishing up front. For Lens, Wesley Saïd’s conversion rate two goals from three games offers the kind of clinical edge that could tilt tight contests, especially away from home. Both squads bring a blend of defensive resilience and attacking intent that adds layers to this encounter.

A “hot stat” worth mentioning: Lens are currently riding a 100% win rate in the past month an unbeaten streak of four wins from four, underpinning their status as the most in-form side in France at present.

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Marseille vs Lens prediction

The best value prediction for this encounter is “Both Teams To Score – Yes”. Marseille are prolific at home, scoring 16 goals in their last five matches. Lens, meanwhile, have become experts in controlling tough away games and are unbeaten in their last four road trips. Both clubs’ recent stats highlight not just scoring regularity, but also defensive vulnerabilities Marseille have conceded six goals in the same period, while Lens are not infallible at the back with three goals conceded across their last five. This combination of attacking potency and frailties at the back for both sides makes a compelling case for goals at both ends.

Tactically, both sides line up with 3-4-2-1 formations, resulting in energetic wing play and capacity to overload the midfield. Marseille have racked up a high total of shots (90 in their last five games) and earned more corners, but their aggressive style results in more fouls and yellow cards (8 in five matches). Lens are relatively more disciplined (5 yellows, 53 fouls in five) but slightly less dominant in possession and offensive stats. The likelihood of an open game, with tactical risk-taking and high-energy transitions, enhances the probability for both teams to find the net.

Team Analysis

Reviewing Marseille’s recent games: The hosts have displayed attacking flair with a 5-2 thumping of Angers and a 9-0 demolition against FC Bayeux. However, their 0-3 defeat to Liverpool in continental competition exposed defensive deficiencies against elite opponents. The 2-2 draw with PSG showcased both resilience and fragility Marseille surged forward but were susceptible to pacey attacking transitions. Their current streak (W-L-W-W-W-D) reflects potency up front but a tendency to leave spaces at the back.

Lens’ recent run: Lens have been relentless, collecting four straight wins: a 3-0 win over Sochaux, 1-0 over Auxerre, 3-0 versus Toulouse, and 3-1 at Feignies. Their defensive unit has been particularly organized, conceding just one goal across those matches, and their attack capitalizes on set-pieces and clinical finishing. With an undefeated record in 2026 and key players like Wesley Saïd and Adrien Thomasson firing, their confidence is sky-high.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Marseille vs Lens stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Marseille the favourite

• Moneyline Marseille 2.05 | Lens 3.55
• Draw 3.70
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.98 | Under 2.5 1.82
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.80 | No 2.00

Bookmakers edge this in favour of Marseille, giving them a slight home advantage. Notably, Lens’ recent form and position atop the table suggest their odds could carry value for punters backing the away side or cover. The over/under suggests bookmakers expect at least a couple of goals, which aligns with both teams’ attacking output in recent matches. The BTTS market (Yes at 1.80) is especially appealing given each side’s ability to score and occasional defensive slip.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Marseille possible starting eleven

This squad maximizes recent form and fitness, with Gerónimo Rulli’s experience in goal lending authority to the backline. The defensive trio will be tasked with quelling Lens’ direct runners, while the double pivot of Højbjerg and Traorè injects both physicality and creativity. On the flanks, Murillo and Palmieri offer width and attacking support. Mason Greenwood and Amine Gouiri are the main attacking threats, both displaying prime form recently. Likely formation: 3-4-2-1, with Greenwood at the spearhead and Gouiri just off him.

Lens possible starting eleven

Robin Risser starts in goal after a string of reliable performances. The defensive combination of Sarr, Medina, and Baidoo blends strength with mobility. In midfield, Thomasson and Bulatović drive tempo and transitions, supported by ball-winning wide players Abdulhamid and Udol. Up front, Wesley Saïd’s goal threat, supported by the creativity of Thauvin and Sima, will test Marseille’s structure. Expect Lens to mirror Marseille’s 3-4-2-1, maximizing midfield pressure and tactical flexibility.

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The Verdict

My main pick for this match is Both Teams To Score – Yes, with the edge going to Marseille for a narrow win or a high-scoring draw. The hosts have home advantage and greater individual firepower, while Lens’ organization and confidence from being league leaders supply plenty of resistance. With both sides operating similar formations and attacking with intensity, expect a tactical battle full of transitions, set-pieces, and scoring opportunities. Punters should watch the live odds for value, especially if an early goal opens the game up.

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