Maritimo vs Benfica Prediction: 05 September 2026 Primeira Liga

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Benfica travel to Funchal for an early-season Primeira Liga fixture against Maritimo, arriving with a perfect away record so far and a goal difference that dwarfs most of the division. The hosts sit 7th with 7 points from four games, which is a respectable start under Mitchell van der Gaag, but they now face a side that has scored 11 goals in just three league matches. The eye-catching subplot here is Benfica’s extraordinary firepower: five different outfield players have already found the net across their last five games, making them one of the most dangerous attacking units in Portugal right now.

Two players stand out as the ones to watch. Vangelis Pavlidis leads Benfica’s scoring charts with five goals in five matches, adding a physical presence in the box that Maritimo’s backline will struggle to contain. For the home side, Martín Tejón has been the most productive creative outlet, contributing a goal and an assist across four appearances while generating the highest shot volume on the team.

The standout stat heading into this match: Benfica have scored 16 goals in their last five games across all competitions, averaging 3.2 per game, compared to Maritimo’s 6 across the same period. That attacking gap is enormous and shapes every market on this fixture.

Maritimo vs Benfica Prediction

Benfica are the clear pick here. Their 76% win probability from bookmakers is well-founded: they are unbeaten in seven matches, have conceded just three league goals in three games, and carry a goal threat that Maritimo simply cannot match. Marco Silva’s side operate with a 4-2-3-1 that presses high and recycles the ball at a significantly higher rate than their opponents, which should create sustained pressure on a Maritimo defence that has already shipped five goals in four league games.

Maritimo commit fouls at a high rate (57 total across five matches) and have collected seven yellow cards in the same period, suggesting a physical, reactive defensive approach. Benfica, by contrast, have taken just two yellow cards in five games, pointing to a disciplined, possession-based style that avoids reckless challenges. With Benfica’s pass accuracy sitting at 2,826 out of 3,154 attempted passes, they will control the tempo and dictate the game’s pace. We predict Benfica to win with goals on both ends, as Maritimo have shown they can score against most opponents, netting six across their last five.

Team Analysis

Maritimo have put together a decent opening run under van der Gaag, winning two and drawing one of their four league games. Their last five matches across all competitions show three wins, one draw, and one defeat. The most recent fixture was a 1-2 home loss to Arouca, a side ranked significantly higher than Maritimo in the global club standings. Before that, they drew 2-2 with Academico Viseu and beat Famalicao 2-1, showing they can score but are inconsistent at the back. Their attack relies heavily on individual moments from Tejón, Raphael Guzzo, and Adrián Butzke rather than systemic creation, and their 47 total shots in five matches is a modest output. The loss to Arouca is the most relevant data point: when they face quality opposition, their defensive structure breaks down.

Benfica are in excellent form, going unbeaten across their last seven matches with five wins and two draws. Their most recent outing was a 2-1 win over Estoril in the league, following back-to-back 3-1 wins against AGF Aarhus in European competition and a 7-0 demolition of Casa Pia. The only blemish in recent weeks was a 1-1 draw with Hearts, but Benfica still controlled that match. Pavlidis (5 goals), Gianluca Prestianni (3 goals), and Rafa Silva (3 goals) are all in sharp form, and the squad depth means Marco Silva can rotate without losing quality. Their 112 total shots across five games, combined with 39 corner kicks, reflects a side that generates pressure from multiple angles consistently.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Maritimo vs Benfica stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Benfica the Favourite

• Moneyline Maritimo 10.50 | Benfica 1.24
• Draw 6.20
• Over/Under Over 2.5 – available | Under 2.5 – available
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes | No

The odds reflect a near-certainty for Benfica, with the Lisbon side priced at 1.22–1.24 across most books. The draw at 6.20 carries no real value given Benfica’s current form and quality gap. Maritimo at 10.50 is a long shot that only makes sense as part of a speculative accumulator. The more interesting markets are goals and corners: Benfica’s 39 corners across five matches makes the Over 8.5 corners market genuinely attractive, and their 3.2 goals-per-game average supports Over 2.5 at solid value. BTTS Yes is also reasonable given Maritimo’s ability to get on the scoresheet even in losses.

Possible Starting Lineups

Maritimo Possible Starting Eleven

Van der Gaag has been consistent with his 4-2-3-1 shape across the last five matches, and this lineup reflects the players with the most appearances and playing time. Alfonso Pastor starts in goal ahead of Gonçalo Tabuaço based on save numbers and involvement. The double pivot of Rodri Andrade and Vladan Danilović provides defensive cover, while Tejón operates as the number ten. Martín Tejón is the player to watch: he leads the team in shots (12) and free kicks taken (13), and his ability to create from set pieces could be Maritimo’s best route to goal against a disciplined Benfica backline.

Benfica Possible Starting Eleven

Marco Silva has settled on a 4-2-3-1 that transitions quickly into a 4-4-2 in attack. Samuel Soares gets the nod in goal with five appearances. The back four picks itself based on consistent minutes: Bah and Dahl as attacking fullbacks, Araújo and Lenglet as the central pairing. Barrenechea and Sudakov form a deep-lying midfield base, with Barreiro pushing higher. Rafa Silva operates as the advanced midfielder behind a front two of Pavlidis and Prestianni. Pavlidis is the primary danger: his five goals in five matches, combined with three offside calls, show he is constantly pushing the line and demanding service. Prestianni’s 18 shots across five games makes him the most active shooter on the squad.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Benfica are the pick, and the stats back it up on every level. They outshoot Maritimo more than two-to-one, generate nearly four times as many corner kicks, and carry attackers in form that very few Primeira Liga sides can handle right now. Maritimo have scored in four of their last five matches, so BTTS Yes has merit, but the match winner is not in doubt. We predict a Benfica win with goals, most likely in a 3-1 or 4-1 scoreline, with Over 2.5 total goals and Benfica to score in both halves as the strongest standalone bets on this fixture. The corner market is also worth targeting: Benfica’s relentless wide play and pressing style should push the total well above 8.5 at the Estádio do Marítimo.

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