Levi Rothermund
Mariehamn sit rock-bottom of the Veikkausliiga table with just four points from nine matches and no wins to their name this season. Gnistan, meanwhile, arrive in Mariehamn in decent shape, winning three of their last five league games. The numbers tell a lopsided story, but the most striking detail is the head-to-head record: Gnistan have won five of the last seven meetings between these sides, including a 5-0 and a 4-0 thrashing in the last two Liigacup and league encounters.
Two players stand out going into this fixture. For Gnistan, forward Adeleke Akinola Akinyemi leads the attack with two goals in three recent matches and seven total shots, making him the most dangerous outlet in their lineup. For Mariehamn, midfielder Anttoni Huttunen is their sole scorer across the last five games and will need to carry that creative responsibility again.
Hot stat: Gnistan scored eight goals across their last five matches and converted one direct free kick, a sign that their attacking variety goes well beyond open play.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Veikkausliiga 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Wiklöf Holding Arena, Mariehamn |
| 🗓️ Date: | 13.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
Mariehamn vs Gnistan prediction
Gnistan winning this match is the clearest value on the board. Mariehamn have failed to win a single league game in 2026, conceding 14 goals in nine outings while scoring just five. Gnistan’s recent form over the last 30 days shows a 60% win rate across five matches. The head-to-head record reinforces this further, with Gnistan winning five of the last seven and scoring 16 goals in those fixtures combined.
Mariehamn’s pass accuracy across the last five matches sits at 837 from 1,136 passes, while Gnistan completed 751 from 964, both teams operating at a moderate level. The key difference is in end product. Gnistan have scored twice as many goals as Mariehamn from the same number of total shots (40 each), which points to better finishing and movement in the final third. Mariehamn’s 40 fouls in five games also suggest a reactive defensive structure that tends to give the ball away in dangerous areas.
Gnistan committed 41 fouls in the same period with five yellow cards to Mariehamn’s seven, so neither side is especially disciplined, but Mariehamn’s extra caution with cards has not translated into better defensive results. With Gnistan’s higher corner count (10 vs 15) and free kick opportunities, they generate pressure from multiple sources. We think the away win is the right call here, and the goals market leans toward over 2.5 given the h2h tendency for open scorelines.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Gnistan to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Mariehamn’s recent run makes for difficult reading. They lost 0-1 to HJK, 0-1 to Lahti, and 0-3 to Jaro in three of their last four competitive fixtures. Their only win in 30 days came against PuiU, a side ranked well outside the professional tier. Against Jaro, a team that sits second-bottom of the Veikkausliiga table themselves, Mariehamn failed to score and conceded three. That result arguably sums up the season so far: struggling against sides they should be competitive with.
Gnistan’s form is a contrast. They beat SJK 3-2 in their most recent outing, a match where they showed the ability to grind out a win against a side that had been competitive in the early stages. Before that, they lost to Ilves 0-2, but bounced back with a 5-0 demolition of Jaro and an earlier 2-0 win over Inter Turku, who lead the table. That win over Inter Turku is the standout result and shows Gnistan are capable of performing against strong opposition. Their 60% win rate over the last 30 days reflects a team in a much better place than their mid-table position suggests.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Mariehamn | Gnistan |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 7 | 18 |
| Total shots | 40 | 40 |
| Free kicks | 45 | 40 |
| Corner kicks | 15 | 10 |
| Total fouls | 40 | 41 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 74% | 78% |
| Interceptions | 31 | 22 |
| Offsides | 11 | 6 |
Note: The table above reflects each team’s last five individual matches, used as a proxy for their current form, rather than direct head-to-head match stats, since detailed per-game h2h data is not available. The head-to-head results across seven meetings show Gnistan winning five times, Mariehamn winning none, and two draws.
🚨Check out our dedicated Mariehamn vs Gnistan stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Gnistan the favourite
- Moneyline Mariehamn 3.67 | Gnistan 1.95
- Draw 3.54
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
Gnistan at around 1.90 to 1.98 across most books is fair value given the form gap and head-to-head dominance. Mariehamn at 3.50 to 3.76 reflects their winless league campaign, and honestly, that price looks about right. The draw at 3.30 to 3.55 is tempting only if you think Mariehamn’s defensive stubbornness, 31 interceptions in five games, keeps it tight, but their goal-scoring output makes a point-sharing result unlikely. Pinnacle offering 3.76 on Mariehamn is the longest price if you want a speculative home flutter, but we would not recommend it based on current data.
Mariehamn. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Mariehamn possible starting eleven
- GK: Matias Riikonen
- DF: Pontus Lindgren, Tuomas Koivisto, Yeboah Amankwah, Samson Ngulube
- MF: Sebastian Dahlström, Noah Nurmi, Emmanuel Patut, Leo Andersson
- FW: Anttoni Huttunen, Luke Pearce
Roberth Björknesjö has leaned on a 3-4-3 shape in recent weeks, though the output in front of goal has been minimal. Matias Riikonen takes the gloves after appearing in three of the last five matches, while Kevin Lund has also featured. Pontus Lindgren leads the defensive unit in terms of interceptions and pass volume. Anttoni Huttunen is the one player in this squad who has contributed a goal recently and remains the biggest threat from midfield. Noah Nurmi’s passing volume and defensive work rate make him a key figure in the middle.
Gnistan possible starting eleven
- GK: Alexandro Craninx
- DF: Pakwo Abdoul Rachide Gnanou, Stephen Ayomide Obileye, Marcelo Costa, Edmund Arko-Mensah
- MF: Joakim Latonen, Gabriel Europaeus, Otto Hannula, Adam Jouhi
- FW: Adeleke Akinola Akinyemi, Danny Pérez
Gnistan’s 4-3-3 shape has been consistent across the last five matches. Alexandro Craninx is the clear first-choice goalkeeper with six saves and 270 minutes played. Pakwo Gnanou stands out at the back with five interceptions and a goal from defence, making him a genuine threat at set pieces. Joakim Latonen has been excellent in the middle, contributing one goal and two assists across three games, and his direct free kick goal adds another dimension. Adeleke Akinola Akinyemi leads the line with two goals and seven shots, and we think he will be the most dangerous player on the pitch come Saturday evening.
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Gnistan. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Mariehamn are winless in nine Veikkausliiga matches in 2026, sit bottom of the table, and have been beaten by sides across the full spectrum of the division. Gnistan are not a top-four team, but they have beaten Inter Turku, destroyed Jaro 5-0, and won three of their last five. The head-to-head record over the last two years gives Mariehamn zero wins and a combined deficit of 7-16 on goals.
We think Gnistan win this comfortably. The away win market at around 1.95 is the primary call. For a secondary market, Gnistan to score in both halves at whatever price your book offers is worth a look, given their recent tendency to press from the first whistle. Over 2.5 goals is also reasonable, as Mariehamn’s defence has shipped 14 in nine and Gnistan’s attack is in decent rhythm right now.
