Sofia Quijada
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
Manta welcome Orense to Estadio Jocay in a Relegation Group fixture that neither side can really afford to lose. Both clubs arrive in poor shape, having won just one of their last five games apiece, yet the gap in quality shows elsewhere: Orense sit far above Manta in the world club rankings and have scored more goals from open play across the season. Manta’s defense has looked shaky lately, shipping five goals to Universidad Catolica just two matches back, while Orense have shown they can score in bunches, as their 4-3 win over Guayaquil City proves.
Watch for Jostin Alman up front for Manta. He has scored twice in his last five appearances and is the one attacking outlet who has consistently troubled defenses this campaign. On the Orense side, Valentín Burgoa stands out with three goals and an assist in his last five matches, driving most of the away side’s creative play from midfield.
Hot stat: Orense have fired 68 shots and won 23 corners across their last five matches compared to Manta’s 50 shots and 13 corners, yet both teams have scored an identical six goals in that stretch, a sign that Manta convert chances more clinically while Orense simply create more volume.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Liga Pro 2026, Relegation Group |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Jocay, Manta |
| 🗓️ Date: | 21.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Manta vs Orense prediction
We lean toward Orense avoiding defeat here. Their attack has produced more shots, more corners, and better passing numbers over the last five games, and their world ranking gap over Manta is enormous. Manta’s only real positive recently is a 0-0 draw and a 2-0 win over Barcelona SC, but the 1-5 collapse against Universidad Catolica and the home side’s overall 16% winrate this year keep us cautious about backing them outright.
Manta commit slightly more fouls per shot and carry a heavier defensive workload, which shows in their lower pass accuracy figures compared to Orense. Orense’s 4-4-2 setup generates width and corner opportunities, and with 23 corners in five games against Manta’s 13, set pieces should favor the visitors. Both teams have picked up 11 yellow cards apiece in that span, so we expect a physical, disciplined-but-tense affair rather than a card-fest.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Orense Double Chance (Draw or Win) & Over 2.5 Goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Manta’s form has been rough. Across their last five outings they managed one draw, one win, and three losses, including a heavy 1-5 defeat to Universidad Catolica and a 3-4 loss to Macara where their defense leaked goals repeatedly. The most recent result, a 0-0 draw against Sociedad Deportiva Aucas, at least shows some defensive discipline returning, but Manta have struggled to find the net consistently, scoring in only two of those five matches.
Orense’s recent run tells a similar story of inconsistency, though with sharper attacking output. Their last match ended in a 1-2 loss to Universidad Catolica, continuing a stretch where they’ve lost four of their last five games. The exception was a wild 4-3 win over Guayaquil City, which showed their attack, led by Valentín Burgoa, can be devastating when it clicks. Their defense, however, has been leaky throughout, conceding multiple goals in four of their last five matches.
🚨Check out our dedicated Manta vs Orense stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Manta the favourite
- Moneyline Manta 2.55 | Orense 2.73
- Draw 3.03
Bookmakers give Manta a marginal 36% chance against Orense’s 34%, with the draw sitting at 30%. The odds are tight enough to reflect how unpredictable both sides have been this season, and to be honest, we think the market slightly overrates Manta’s home advantage given their defensive struggles. Perhaps the smarter angle is backing Orense not to lose rather than chasing the outright win price.
Possible Starting Lineups
Manta possible starting eleven
- GK: Walter Chavez
- DF: Alexander Medina
- MF: Jeremy Mina, Mateo Ortiz
- FW: Jostin Alman
Manta’s available data highlights only a handful of regulars, with Chavez guarding goal in all five recent matches and Alman leading the attack as the team’s main scoring threat. Ortiz and Mina have rotated through midfield duties, while Medina anchors the back line. Carvajal’s men have leaned on a 4-2-3-1 shape, and Alman’s movement between the lines will be key to unlocking Orense’s defense.
Orense possible starting eleven
- GK: Rolando David Silva
- DF: Pedro Velasco, Beder Caicedo, Stefano Callegari, Oscar Quiñonez
- MF: Valentín Burgoa, Nixon Molina, Gonzalo Rostagno, Renny Jaramillo
- FW: Ángel Mena
Orense’s 4-4-2 relies on Burgoa’s creativity from midfield, backed by Molina and Rostagno covering defensive duties. Velasco and Caicedo have started every recent match at the back, giving the side stability despite the poor results. Mena leads the line, though Torres may need a second reliable striker option given the front line’s thin recent output beyond Burgoa’s goals.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Orense. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a tight, goal-filled contest at Estadio Jocay. Manta’s home comfort helps them stay competitive, but Orense’s superior shot volume and Burgoa’s scoring form give them the edge to avoid defeat. Both defenses have shown cracks in recent weeks, Manta conceding five to Catolica and Orense letting in multiple goals in four of their last five games, so goals at both ends look likely. Our call: Orense Double Chance combined with Over 2.5 goals, with BTTS Yes as the value side bet.
