Mamelodi Sundowns vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction: 21.06.2025 FIFA Club World Cup Preview

The stage is set at Cincinnati’s TQL Stadium for a pivotal Group F clash between South African champions Mamelodi Sundowns and German heavyweights Borussia Dortmund. While Bruges and Ulsan Hyundai look on, the encounter is drawing substantial intrigue—not least because it’s a rare opportunity for a top Bundesliga side to test their mettle against one of Africa’s most disciplined and ambitious outfits in a competitive environment.
With both teams boasting contrasting footballing philosophies and tactical outlooks, this match promises to be a fascinating demonstration of styles.

Key figures to watch include the Sundowns’ electric forward Iqraam Rayners, fresh off two goals in his last three games and a talismanic presence in the box, and Dortmund’s Sahrou Guirassy, who continues to build his reputation as a decisive attacking threat. In midfield, Julian Brandt will look to dictate the rhythm for Dortmund, while Lucas Ribeiro has quietly emerged as Sundowns’ creative spark. Both coaches—Miguel Cardoso and Niko Kovac—have demonstrated tactical flexibility in recent matches, and their choices could set the swing for this match.

The “hot stat”: Borussia Dortmund have managed just seven shots in their last match, a stark contrast to their Bundesliga norm, hinting at some teething issues transitioning into international competition.

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Mamelodi Sundowns vs Borussia Dortmund prediction

Given the sheer chasm in squad value and European pedigree, the bookmakers’ odds heavily back Borussia Dortmund at 73 percent probability. Still, this is not an exhibition match. Sundowns have demonstrated tremendous structure and resilience, keeping clean sheets in three of their last five and securing a 1-0 win over South Korea’s Ulsan Hyundai.
Dortmund, meanwhile, have looked a touch sluggish in their opening 0-0 draw to Fluminense—the German side stuttered to seven total shots, signaling systemic readjustments under international conditions.

Mamelodi Sundowns enter this tie averaging high possession numbers (over 55 percent), a propensity to build play from the back, and robust defensive discipline—conceding just once in their last three games. Dortmund, often carrying the initiative, may struggle initially to break down Sundowns’ compact blocks but have the individual quality to prevail.
Sundowns have been relatively well-behaved (four yellows in five), but their defensive approach could draw fouls if Dortmund dial up the tempo. Dortmund themselves tally below-average cards and fouls, preferring tactical discipline over reckless pressing. Expect Mamelodi Sundowns to play a cagey first half, keeping the match tight before Dortmund’s attacking depth tips the balance after halftime.

Team Analysis

Mamelodi Sundowns:
Sundowns come in following a vital 1-0 win over Ulsan Hyundai, a match that epitomized their pragmatic approach: disciplined defending, rare mistakes, and capitalizing on limited chances—Iqraam Rayners with the only goal. Lucas Ribeiro created openings with his aggressive running and passing, while Ronwen Williams was assured between the sticks, showing why he’s rated as one of the continent’s best keepers.
Before that, the Sundowns stumbled against Egyptian heavyweights Pyramids FC (1-2 loss, followed by a 1-1 draw), yet they bounced back in their domestic scene and continental campaigns, often reverting to their tried-and-tested 4-3-3.

Borussia Dortmund:
Dortmund’s opening contest against Fluminense ended 0-0—a match in which Kovac’s men dominated the possession but failed to fire on all cylinders. Julian Brandt distributed well, but the final third was bereft of clinical finishing. Notably, Sahrou Guirassy failed to register a goal but remains a continual threat. Defensively, Dortmund rarely looked troubled, and Gregor Kobel provided a steady presence.
The lead-up to the tournament included thumping Bundesliga wins—3-0 over Holstein Kiel, 4-2 over Bayer Leverkusen, and a 4-0 rout of Wolfsburg—proving their capacity to shift gears offensively.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Mamelodi Sundowns vs Borussia Dortmund stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Borussia Dortmund the favourite

• Moneyline Mamelodi Sundowns 10.00 | Borussia Dortmund 1.24
• Draw 6.00
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.92 | Under 2.5 1.85
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.05 | No 1.68

The odds reflect the vast gulf in quality, experience, and financial muscle between these sides—Dortmund are massive favorites. Still, the value for risk-seeking punters lies in giving Sundowns a head start (a tight loss or surprising draw is not impossible, given their defensive mettle). The under on total goals looks appealing, considering both teams’ recent scoring trends and the early-tournament pressure.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Mamelodi Sundowns possible starting eleven

Miguel Cardoso is likely to stick with his favored 4-3-3, maximizing defensive coverage while giving license to Rayners and Ribeiro to exploit spaces. Williams is central with his shot-stopping and distribution. Mokoena’s steel and Allende’s vision in midfield are fundamental to the build-up, while Rayners remains their best hope to nick a goal.

Borussia Dortmund possible starting eleven

Niko Kovac’s 4-2-3-1 should be on display, focusing on controlled build-up through Sabitzer and Groß, and width from Bynoe-Gittens and Adeyemi. Guirassy’s movement will ask persistent questions of the Sundowns back line. Watch for Julian Brandt’s ability to orchestrate play and Kobel’s reliability in goal—Dortmund’s structure offers elite technical quality throughout.

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My take on the Match

My main pick: Borussia Dortmund to win with a -1.5 handicap. Sundowns will frustrate for stretches, especially with Williams’ heroics in goal, but Dortmund’s attacking machinery and guile through Brandt and Guirassy will ultimately tell.
Expect a spirited resistance from the PSL giants, but Dortmund’s depth and European experience will be decisive.

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