Liam Duckstein
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Malta sit top of League D Group 1 after a bright start to this Nations League campaign, and they get the chance to stretch their advantage at home against an Andorra side that has barely scored a goal in weeks. The two nations met only days ago in the reverse fixture, a match Malta edged 2-1, and the home side arrives with momentum while Andorra arrive with a single win from their last nine outings across all competitions. Perhaps the most interesting wrinkle here is how quickly this rematch has come around on the calendar, giving Koldo Álvarez almost no time to fix the attacking problems that cost his side the first meeting.
Teddy Teuma has been the heartbeat of Malta’s recent run, contributing two goals and two assists in just three games, and his set piece delivery adds another layer to Malta’s threat. On the Andorra side, Albert Rosas Ubach is the player we would watch closest going forward. He has taken four shots in his last three appearances without scoring, and breaking that drought would go a long way toward changing the tone of this match for the visitors.
Hot stat: Andorra have fired 36 shots across their last five matches and scored just twice, while collecting 13 yellow cards in the process, almost double Malta’s tally of seven in the same span. That combination of blunt finishing and a card-prone midfield tells us plenty about what to expect on Sunday.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League D Group 1 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Ta’Qali National Stadium, Takali |
| 🗓️ Date: | 04.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
Malta vs Andorra prediction
We predict Malta to win this one comfortably, and the value sits in backing them to do it without conceding. Malta have scored in every recent outing and sit on a two-win, one-draw run over the last month, while Andorra have lost two of their last three and have not beaten anyone of note since the spring. The gap in quality was already visible in the first meeting between these sides this cycle, and a short turnaround favours the team with the better squad depth and the home crowd behind them.
Malta’s style leans on patient build-up, averaging over 82% pass accuracy in their last five matches compared to Andorra’s 78%, and they commit fewer fouls too, 40 against Andorra’s 72 across the same sample. That disciplinary gap matters here. Andorra’s higher foul count and 13 yellow cards in five games suggest a team that defends through contact rather than structure, and against a Malta side comfortable in possession, that approach tends to produce free kicks in dangerous areas and cautions rather than clean defending.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Malta to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Malta’s last match ended in a 1-1 draw against Gibraltar, snapping a run of wins but doing little to dent confidence given Gibraltar’s own defensive solidity this campaign. Before that draw, Malta beat Liechtenstein 2-0 and edged Andorra 2-1 in the earlier Group 1 meeting, a result that already hinted at how this rematch might go. Three wins and a draw from their last four tells us Malta are a team that rarely goes flat, and their home form at Ta’Qali has been a genuine asset this cycle.
Andorra’s last match was a 0-3 defeat to Lithuania, a result that continued a troubling pattern of games where they fail to register a single shot that matters. Before that they drew 0-0 with Gibraltar and lost 1-2 to Malta in the first leg of this Group 1 double header. In our preview of Gibraltar vs Andorra we called a tight, low-scoring match that would keep Gibraltar unbeaten, and the 0-0 scoreline backed that read exactly. Andorra’s finishing has not improved since, and that is the biggest reason we lean so heavily against them here.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Malta | Andorra |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 3 meetings) | 3 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Malta vs Andorra stats page for more info.
Andorra. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Malta the favourite
- Moneyline Malta 1.66 | Andorra 6.00
- Draw 3.15
The market is firmly behind Malta here, and bookmakers have priced Andorra as rank underdogs at around 6.00. That lines up with everything the data shows us: Malta winning the reverse fixture, Andorra’s goal drought, and the home advantage Malta carry into this one. We see no reason to fade the favourite tonight, though a small draw hedge at 3.15 would not be the worst insurance given how cagey Andorra tend to play when chasing nothing but damage limitation.
Possible Starting Lineups
Malta possible starting eleven
- GK: Henry Bonello
- DF: Zach Muscat, Enrico Pepe, Kurt Shaw, Myles Beerman
- MF: Teddy Teuma, Matthew Guillaumier, Paiber Brandon Diego, Ylyas Chouaref
- FW: Irvin Cardona, Alexander Satariano
Emilio De Leo tends to stick with his 4-4-2 shape, and the players above have carried the heaviest minutes across the last three fixtures. Teuma remains the creative focal point, while Cardona’s record of two goals and two assists in three games makes him the man most likely to punish a nervy Andorra back line.
Andorra possible starting eleven
- GK: Iker Álvarez
- DF: Moisés San Nicolás, Max Llovera, Christian Garcia, Joel Guillén
- MF: Pau Babot, Eric Izquierdo, Alex Cornella Molins, Jesus Rubio
- FW: Albert Rosas Ubach, Jordi Aláez
Koldo Álvarez’s nominal 4-2-3-1 looks thin once you strip away the players with real minutes, and Babot plus Izquierdo will need to shield a back four that has already conceded plenty this cycle. Rosas Ubach is the one forward with genuine shot volume, but he still needs to find his first goal of the sample to really worry Malta’s defenders.
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Malta. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a comfortable Malta win here, perhaps by a two or three goal margin, built on home advantage and a clear quality gap that was already visible in the reverse fixture. Andorra’s shot conversion problems and their tendency to pick up cards under pressure make a clean sheet for Malta a realistic outcome, and we would be surprised if Andorra found a way through a defense that has conceded just twice in its last five matches. To be honest, the safest read of this fixture is simple: Malta control it from start to finish, and Andorra’s long winless stretch continues.
Read also: Malta vs Andorra Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form as of 3 Oct 2026
Read also: Malta vs Andorra Team News and Predicted Lineups: Who Starts?
