Mallorca vs Athletic Bilbao Predictions: Odds and betting tips for La Liga 2025/26 Match - 17.01.2026

As La Liga 2025/26 marches onward, all eyes will be on Palma when Mallorca host Athletic Bilbao at the iconic Visit Mallorca Stadium on January 17, 2026, with the game kicking off at 17:15 CEST. With both teams navigating turbulent waves in the mid-to-lower reaches of the league standings, the encounter not only has substantial implications for their fight to climb the table but also promises a clash of tactical ideologies, with Mallorca’s pragmatic approach facing off against Athletic’s transitional intensity. Jagoba Arrasate will be keen to engineer a response from his Mallorca side, who seek solace after a string of tough results, while Ernesto Valverde aims to extract consistency from his Athletic squad as they try to stabilize their league campaign.

Watch for key Mallorca striker Vedat Muriqi, whose two-goal haul in the last five matches offers hope for a side in need of cutting edge, and Athletic’s forward spearhead Gorka Guruzeta, who leads his team with a standout three goals from the last five outings. The duel between these two frontmen could well determine the direction of this compelling Basque-Balearic contest.

The “hot stat” to remember: Athletic Bilbao have racked up an astonishing 36 corner kicks in their last five matches, demonstrating relentless attacking intent even when results have gone the other way.

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Mallorca vs Athletic Bilbao predictions

My best bet: Both Teams to Score: YES. Both Mallorca and Athletic have displayed defensive frailties and an inclination to create opportunities rather than sit back. Athletic have averaged over 16 shots per match recently, while Mallorca, despite their modest attacking returns, have Muriqi’s physical presence and a willingness to push extra men forward when at home. Both goalkeepers have performed admirably under fire—Leonardo Román Riquelme for Mallorca and Unai Simon for Athletic—but the volume of chances suggests goals are to be expected.

Mallorca, typically deploying a 4-2-3-1, have shown a tendency to concede minimum control in the midfield, leading to high foul counts (42 fouls in their last five matches), but also drawing free kicks in dangerous areas. With 10 yellow cards in their last five, discipline will be a crucial factor. Athletic Bilbao, aligning in a mirror formation, top Mallorca for attacking play and physicality—recording 55 fouls and 13 yellows in the same span. The intensity should provide ample set-piece drama and the potential for cards, but also leave gaps for opposition attackers to exploit.

• ⚽Total Goals: Over 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: Yes
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 9.5

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Mallorca vs Athletic Bilbao Most recent H2Hs

Recent head-to-head matches underline the competitive parity between these sides. Their last three encounters yielded a 1-2 result in favor of Athletic, a tense 1-1 draw, and a goalless stalemate. Notably, Mallorca have found the net in the last two, but Athletic remain slightly more clinical—mirroring the trend we have observed in their broader 2025/26 campaigns.

🚨Read our full Mallorca vs Athletic Bilbao stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Athletic Bilbao have won only 1 of their last 5 La Liga matches but averaged 16.2 shots per game.
• Mallorca have scored only 3 goals in their last 5 matches but maintain a 75-80 percent overall passing accuracy.
• Both teams average over 8 fouls per match and have picked up a combined 23 yellow cards in five games.
• Athletic’s 36 corner kicks in their last 5—highest in the league for the period.
• Vedat Muriqi (Mallorca) and Gorka Guruzeta (Athletic Bilbao) are their respective club’s most potent attacking threats, with a combined total of 5 goals in 5 matches.

Mallorca vs Athletic Bilbao score prediction: 1-2

Given both the statistical trends and current team dynamics, expect Athletic Bilbao to edge a closely fought contest 2-1. Mallorca should benefit from the home crowd and Muriqi’s target-man presence, but Athletic’s more progressive and productive approach in attack—combined with higher shot volume and Guruzeta’s clinical finishing—should see the visitors prevail. Defensively, both sides are prone to lapses, making a high-scoring affair extremely likely.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Athletic Bilbao the favourite

Athletic Bilbao are priced as favourites with an average win probability of 42%, reflective of their higher overall ranking and attacking output. The odds for Over 2.5 goals are inviting, given both defences’ vulnerability and the attackers’ form. A draw remains plausible with odds of just above 3.0—aligned with previous H2H outcomes. Both Teams To Score hovers near even money, but the attacking numbers suggest value in the affirmative.

Mallorca vs Athletic Bilbao Over/Under Analysis

• Four of the last five Athletic Bilbao matches have gone over 2.5 goals.
• Mallorca have averaged just over 1 goal per home match but have conceded in each of their last five outings.
• Both teams have scored in three of their last five encounters.
• With both sides favoring aggressive, attacking spells, expect a high shot count and at least three goals in this one.

Mallorca Preview

Mallorca are struggling for rhythm, with just one win in their last five matches—3-1 over Elche—a performance that showcased glimpses of their attacking identity but not enough to inspire a consistent turnaround. Their last game, a narrow 1-2 defeat to Rayo Vallecano, epitomized their season: periods of structured build-up offset by defensive gaps and critical lapses. Coach Jagoba Arrasate continues to search for the right balance, rotating personnel to find stability. A major concern is the lack of goals beyond the efforts of Vedat Muriqi and sporadic contributions from Samuel Costa in midfield.

Mallorca possible starting eleven

Athletic Bilbao Preview

The Basque giants come into this contest on the back of a rousing 4-3 cup win over Cultural Leonesa, but their league form has been inconsistent: a humbling 0-5 reverse to Barcelona offset by gritty draws and a solitary win. Ernesto Valverde continues to rely on the attacking inspiration of Gorka Guruzeta up front and the dynamism of brothers Iñaki and Nico Williams on the flanks, while Oihan Sancet consistently provides a midfield spark. Athletic’s strength lies in transition and set pieces—evidenced by their monumental corner tally (36 in five)—yet defensive lapses have seen them lose or draw matches they appeared to control.

Athletic Bilbao possible starting eleven

Our prediction: Who Wins?

As the Tips.GG expert, our model points to Athletic Bilbao securing a narrow win, with a projected 43% probability—Mallorca at 25%, draw at 32%. Athletic possess the more coherent attacking structure, sharper set-piece delivery, and a proven scorer in Guruzeta. Mallorca will challenge, particularly with Muriqi on home soil, but the visitors’ greater attacking volume and slightly better defensive numbers tip the balance in their favor. Expect tactical discipline but also flashes of the unpredictable—hallmarks of Spanish football’s middle order.

How to watch Mallorca vs Athletic Bilbao

• When? January 17, 2026, 17:15 CEST
• Where? Visit Mallorca Stadium, Palma
• How to watch: Local broadcasts (Movistar LaLiga), official La Liga streaming platforms, and leading betting sites permitted in your region.
• Favorite: Athletic Bilbao

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