Mallorca vs Alavés Predictions: Odds and betting tips for La Liga 2025/26 Match - 27.09.2025

The Visit Mallorca Stadium in Palma will set the stage for a crucial La Liga 2025/26 regular season contest when Mallorca hosts Alavés on 27 September 2025, with kick-off slated for 19:30 CEST. Both teams enter this encounter aiming to solidify their standings, as Mallorca seeks its elusive first win, while Alavés eyes a push into the league’s upper echelon. The atmospheric home venue, renowned for its passionate support and Mediterranean surroundings, promises a highly charged environment. With both coaches—Jagoba Arrasate for Mallorca and Eduardo Coudet for Alavés—keen tacticians, every tactical nuance will matter as the teams strive to assert their identities.

Keep an eye on Mallorca’s dynamic forward Vedat Muriqi, a consistent attacking threat who has netted four goals in his last three appearances, and Alavés’ versatile attacker Carlos Vicente, whose intelligent runs and recent two-goal haul could trouble any defense. These standout performers, each with the ability to tilt the match, underscore the importance of individual brilliance alongside collective organization.

The “hot stat” for this clash: Alavés have accumulated a staggering 71 fouls and 9 yellow cards over their last five matches, highlighting an aggressive, high-contact approach that could influence both rhythm and referee decisions.

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Mallorca vs Alavés predictions

My best bet: Both Teams to Score (Yes). Both sides have scored exactly four goals in their last five matches, underscoring their ability to find the net even when failing to clinch victories. Mallorca’s home environment tends to energize their attacking play, while Alavés’ recent draws against competent opposition underline their resolve and offensive intent. Given neither defense has truly convinced—Mallorca have conceded 10 goals in five league fixtures, Alavés six in as many—expect both teams to carve out clear chances.

Stylistically, Alavés’s direct approach is evident: 71 fouls, 9 yellows, 34 interceptions, a high-press propensity, and a 4-4-2 shape, making for plenty of battles in midfield and defensive aggression. Their style may generate set-piece opportunities for both sides, as well as frustrating Mallorca’s ball control ambitions—note Mallorca’s considerably fewer fouls (37) and just 1 yellow card in the same period. Mallorca, using a 4-2-3-1, typically seek a more patient buildup (over 1,200 passes, 83 percent accuracy last five) but must improve their transition defense.
These contrasts suggest a lively, fractious contest where discipline and capitalizing on chances could define the result.

• ⚽Total Goals: Over 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: Yes
• 🎯Total Corners: Under 9.5

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Mallorca vs Alavés Most recent H2Hs

In their last two meetings—ending 1-1 and 0-1 respectively—matches have been closely fought, with minimal separation in attacking output and defensive actions. Both sides have demonstrated competitiveness across midfield duels, while neither has managed to exert complete control for extended periods. With only three total goals scored in these encounters, finishing quality and set pieces have often proven decisive. Expect a similarly tight battle this time, though recent attacking form suggests more open play and potentially higher scoring.

🚨Read our full Mallorca vs Alavés stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Vedat Muriqi: 4 goals in last 3 appearances for Mallorca—key focal point for the home attack.
• Alavés: 9 yellow cards and 71 fouls over past 5 matches—the most in La Liga during this span.
• Both teams have managed only 1 clean sheet in their last 8 league combined matches, underlining leaky defenses.
• Mallorca have scored in 4 consecutive matches despite not winning any—showing offensive resilience.
• Three of the last five meetings have produced under 2.5 total goals.

Mallorca vs Alavés score prediction: 2-2

I expect a high-tempo draw: 2-2. Vedat Muriqi, in clinical form, is likely to find space among Alavés’s aggressive back line, while Carlos Vicente and Toni Martínez offer substantial threat for the visitors with their pace and directness. However, frequent fouling and possible disciplinary issues for Alavés could concede dangerous set pieces to Mallorca, keeping the game in the balance throughout. Both teams’ inability to consistently defend leads the prediction towards a shared points scenario, but with entertainment on offer for the neutrals.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Mallorca the favourite

Mallorca hold the slight edge in win probability (41 percent to Alavés’s 28 percent by bookmaker consensus) based on historic home advantage and higher attacking output at the Visit Mallorca Stadium. The odds reflect the evenness of both sides and their shared tendency to draw or lose, while the draw price (3.06) is particularly attractive for punters expecting another stalemate. Over 2.5 goals priced at 2.20 points to bookmakers bracing for another under outcome, yet both teams’ attacking trends offer value on the over. Both teams to score at near evens (1.97) confirms the statistical probability of both sides finding the net.

Mallorca vs Alavés Over/Under Analysis

• Mallorca’s last four matches: All went over 1.5 goals, three over 2.5 goals.
• Alavés: Two of last five over 2.5 goals, others tight contests with late scoring.
• H2H history suggests under 2.5 as a baseline, but current defensive trends tip towards the over this round.
• Hot tip: Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score (Yes) offer value this time based on recent team form and defensive discipline issues.

Mallorca Preview

Mallorca’s early season struggles continue, as they occupy 19th place with just two points from five outings and are winless across their last four matches (2 draws, 2 losses). Their most recent result—a 1-1 draw away at Atletico Madrid—showed signs of improvement, with Vedat Muriqi leading the line impressively and Sergi Darder orchestrating midfield play. The team’s patience in possession (over 1,200 passes in last five), disciplined passing, and resilience in attack are positives; however, defensive lapses on transitions have seen them concede too easily. Coach Jagoba Arrasate is seeking better balance as his side frequently creates, but rarely capitalizes fully.

Alavés Preview

Alavés arrive in Palma with stronger form than their hosts, sitting 10th on eight points after six matches. Their 1-1 draw against Getafe reaffirmed their combative spirit, though their high foul count (71 in last five) highlights a persistent disciplinary issue. Antonio Sivera remains a steady presence in goal, while Carlos Vicente (2 goals), Toni Martínez, and Ander Guevara share the attacking workload. Coach Eduardo Coudet has instilled a direct 4-4-2 style that leverages midfield press and quick transitions, but the lack of clean sheets hints at vulnerability. Improved control in midfield and cooler heads will be needed to leave Mallorca with a positive result.

The Verdict

The analysis points towards a draw, with a 2-2 scoreline most likely. Mallorca’s home support and Muriqi’s form should secure them goals, but defensive fragility remains a concern. Alavés boast slightly more confidence and attacking spark, but their disciplinary issues could lead to costly free kicks or cards. Overall, both sides are expected to find the net multiple times, with neither able to pull away. Tips.GG main pick: Both Teams to Score (Yes).

AI prediction engine win probability: Mallorca 41 percent, Draw 31 percent, Alavés 28 percent.

How to watch Mallorca vs Alavés

• When? 27 September 2025, 19:30 CEST
• Where? Visit Mallorca Stadium, Palma
• How to watch: Available for international audiences on La Liga TV, local Spanish broadcasters, and licensed streaming platforms (check regional listings).
• Favorite: Mallorca

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