Rafael Nogueira
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Mali and Rwanda meet on 13.11.2026 in Group K of the Africa Cup of Nations 2027 qualifiers. Both sides sit level on six points after two matches, and both carry identical goal differences of +3. Mali top the table only on the order of listing, which makes this a genuine test for both squads. Mali coach Anthony da Silva and Rwanda coach Stephen Constantine will both know that a win here could set the tone for the rest of the group.
Rwanda’s recent scoring output has stood out. They have scored 11 goals and conceded only 2 in their last five matches. Mali have been more uneven, scoring 5 and conceding 4 over the same span.
Hot stat
Rwanda have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding just 2 along the way. That defensive record is the most outstanding figure in either team’s recent run.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Africa Cup of Nations 2027, Qualifier Group K |
| 🗓️ Date: | 13.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Mali vs Rwanda prediction
We predict Rwanda will avoid defeat in this fixture. Mali are heavy favourites at 1.27 for the win, but that price leaves little margin. Rwanda have won four of their last five and have conceded only twice in that stretch. They also picked up a point in their most recent outing against Kenya. Backing Rwanda to not lose offers far better value than the Mali moneyline.
Both sides have shown a tendency to keep matches tight at the back. Mali have conceded in three of their last five, including a 0-2 defeat to Iran, while Rwanda have kept three clean sheets in that period. Mali’s attack has produced at least one goal in three of five matches, which suggests a cagey, low-scoring contest rather than an open game. We expect the match to finish with few goals and a likely Mali win or a narrow scoreline. Detailed fouls, card and possession data for these squads is not available in the feed, so this view rests on results and scoring patterns.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Rwanda or Draw (Double Chance) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 3.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Mali have collected 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last five matches. Their most recent outing ended 1-1 against Morocco, a result that continued a pattern of narrow outcomes. Earlier, they beat Liberia 1-0 and Cape Verde 3-1, but they lost 0-2 to Iran. Mali have scored in three of five matches and kept clean sheets in only one, so their defence has been less settled than their results suggest. To be honest, their win rate this year at 29% is the weakest signal in this preview, and it explains why the odds lean so heavily toward Rwanda avoiding defeat.
Rwanda have won four of their last five matches, with the only blemish a 0-0 draw against Kenya in their latest game. Their wins came against Cape Verde (2-1), Liberia (3-1), Estonia (2-0) and Grenada (4-0). Rwanda have scored in every match of that sequence and conceded only twice across the five games. The 80% win rate this year reflects a side that has become difficult to break down and efficient in front of goal.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Mali and Rwanda have no recent competitive meetings on record. The archive page below covers any earlier encounters the database holds.
🚨Check out our dedicated Mali vs Rwanda stats page for more info.
Mali. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Mali the favourite
- Moneyline Mali 1.27 | Rwanda 10.80
- Draw 5.25
The market prices Mali at roughly 71% to win, with the draw at 19% and Rwanda at 10%. We see the draw and Rwanda outcomes as the more realistic routes to a result, given Rwanda’s defensive form. The 10.80 price on Rwanda overstates their chances on paper, but the draw and Rwanda double chance offer the sharper angle for our pick.
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Rwanda. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a low-scoring match with Mali edging the contest but Rwanda keeping it close. Mali’s attack has been productive enough to score, yet their defensive record over five matches makes a clean sheet unlikely. Rwanda’s form, with 11 goals scored and only 2 conceded, suggests they can keep this game tight. Our pick is Rwanda or Draw, with Under 3.5 goals as the supporting market.
