Alex MacQuoid
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Maccabi Tel Aviv face Lugano in the second leg of the UEFA Conference League 2026/27 Playoffs on August 27, with the Israeli side needing to overturn a 1-2 deficit from the first leg played just days ago. Kenny Miller’s men go into this tie under real pressure, and the neutral venue in Batumi adds an unusual layer to what is already a tense two-legged affair. Lugano, coached by Mattia Croci-Torti, arrive in form that is difficult to ignore, having lost just once in their last nine matches.
One player to keep an eye on is Kevin Behrens, Lugano’s striker who has scored six goals across the last five matches and leads their attack with genuine physicality. For Maccabi, Dor Peretz has been the most productive forward with four goals in five games, and his link-up play with Hélio Varela gives Maccabi their best chance of unlocking the Swiss side’s backline.
A hot stat worth flagging: Lugano put ten goals past Vedeggio Calcio in their most recent cup fixture, but more telling is the 5-0 demolition of Zurich in the league, suggesting their attacking output is not just a product of weak opposition. They have averaged 17.4 shots per game across the last five matches.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27, Playoffs |
| 🏟 Venue: | Batumi Arena, Batumi |
| 🗓️ Date: | 27.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Lugano Prediction
Lugano won the first leg 2-1, and with their current form, the Swiss side are the logical pick to progress. We think the most valuable bet here is on Lugano to win or draw, but the outright Lugano win at roughly 2.85 across most books offers real value given the aggregate situation and their recent dominance. Maccabi need to score and keep a clean sheet, which is a tall order against a side that has conceded just three goals across five matches.
The tactical picture also favors Lugano. Maccabi operate in a 3-4-2-1 shape that gives them width and some attacking freedom, but their 43 fouls across five games, combined with eight yellow cards, suggests a side that gets stretched and resorts to stopping play. Lugano, by contrast, have recorded zero yellow cards in the same span despite committing 76 fouls, which is a strange but notable split. Their pass accuracy sits at 88.5%, compared to Maccabi’s 87.8%, but the volume difference is significant: Lugano averaged over 511 passes per game versus Maccabi’s 305. That possession dominance tends to dictate tempo, and in a match where Maccabi must push forward, the space behind their defensive line will be a weapon Lugano can exploit on the counter.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Lugano to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Maccabi Tel Aviv have had a mixed run in recent weeks. Four wins from six in the last 30 days sounds reasonable, but two defeats in that stretch, including the first leg loss to Lugano, reveal a side that is inconsistent when facing quality opposition. They beat Hapoel Jerusalem 5-2 in their last domestic outing, which will have boosted confidence, and that result came after the first leg defeat, so the response was positive. Before that, they beat Netanya 1-0 and CSKA Sofia 3-1, but they also lost 0-3 to CSKA Sofia earlier in that sequence, showing how wildly their performances can swing. The red card in their squad data is a flag too. Maccabi have conceded in four of their last five matches, and their defensive structure under pressure remains a concern.
Lugano’s form over the past 30 days has been exceptional. Eight wins and one draw from nine matches, with that solitary draw coming against NSI Runavik in the first leg of an earlier European tie they went on to win comfortably. The 2-1 victory over Maccabi in the first leg was composed rather than spectacular. They also put five past Zurich without reply, which is a statement result in Swiss football. David von Ballmoos has been reliable in goal, and the defensive unit, anchored by Lars Lukas Mai and Antonios Papadopoulos, has been difficult to break down. Croci-Torti’s side is well-organized, physically committed, and confident going forward. Honestly, the numbers across the board make them the stronger team heading into this second leg.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Lugano |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Lugano stats page for more info.
Maccabi Tel Aviv. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Lugano the Favourite
- Moneyline Maccabi Tel Aviv 2.27 | Lugano 2.85
- Draw 3.40
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The bookmakers’ average gives Maccabi a 40% implied probability, which feels generous given the context. Lugano carry a first-leg lead, better form, and more firepower on paper, yet the odds suggest a near-even contest. That gap between perception and reality is where the value sits. Lugano at 2.85 with Pinnacle or Bovada represents an attractive return for a side that, on aggregate, is already ahead and has not shown signs of wobbling. Maccabi at 2.27 to win this leg is possible, but they would need to win and overcome a goal deficit, which their recent defensive record makes a difficult combination to trust.
Possible Starting Lineups
Maccabi Tel Aviv Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Ofek Melika
- DF: Raz Shlomo, Mohamed Ali Camara, Tyrese Asante
- MF: Roy Revivo, Issouf Bemba Sissokho, Ido Shahar, Noam Ben Harush
- FW: Hélio Varela, Dor Peretz, Osher Davida
Maccabi are expected to line up in their familiar 3-4-2-1, which in attack-minded moments can shift to something closer to a 3-4-3. Ofek Melika starts in goal with two saves in five matches and the only goalkeeper with consistent playing time. The back three of Shlomo, Camara, and Asante provides the defensive foundation, though Camara’s yellow card count will need managing. In midfield, Roy Revivo’s three goal contributions in four games make him the engine of this team, and Ido Shahar adds the goal threat from deeper positions. Dor Peretz leads the line with four goals in five appearances, and Osher Davida’s three assists make him the creative hub. This is an attacking setup, which makes sense given Maccabi’s need to score at least twice.
Lugano Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: David von Ballmoos
- DF: Lars Lukas Mai, Antonios Papadopoulos, Mattia Zanotti, Hannes Delcroix
- MF: Uran Bislimi, Anto Grgic, Yanis Cimignani
- FW: Renato Steffen, Kevin Behrens, Elias Pihlstrom
Lugano’s preferred 4-3-3 gives them width and the ability to press high, which suits this match. Von Ballmoos is the undisputed first choice in goal. The back four is anchored by Mai and Papadopoulos, with Zanotti providing three assists from the right-back position, making him a genuine attacking threat. Bislimi and Grgic form a disciplined midfield partnership with Cimignani adding creativity. Behrens up front is the standout threat with six goals in five matches, and Steffen alongside him gives Lugano pace and technical quality in wide areas. We think Croci-Torti sticks with this setup and trusts the system that got them here.
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Lugano. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Lugano come into this second leg with everything in their favor. They won the first meeting 2-1, their last 30 days have produced eight wins from nine, and their statistical output across shots, possession, and passing volume is clearly superior. Maccabi need to chase the tie, and doing so against a team with Lugano’s defensive organization and Kevin Behrens waiting on the counter is a precarious position. Maybe Maccabi find something in the first half and make this a contest, but Lugano’s quality and composure should see them through. We’re backing Lugano to win this leg and progress, with both teams to score and the match going over 2.5 goals given Maccabi’s need to attack from the first whistle. The corners market is also interesting given both teams’ attacking intent, with 21 and 23 corners respectively across their last five matches each.
