Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Bologna Prediction: 29.01.2026 UEFA Europa League

The League Phase of the UEFA Europa League reaches its crucial climax as Maccabi Tel Aviv play host to Italy’s Bologna at Gradski Stadion, Backa Topola. This encounter may look straightforward on paper—after all, it’s a tale of bottom vs. mid-table in Group Stage standings—but European nights are notorious for springing surprises. With Bologna eyeing progression and Maccabi seeking redemption, the tactical duel between Zarko Lazetic and Vincenzo Italiano promises more intrigue than the bookmakers might suggest.

Among the key men to watch, Bologna’s versatile attacker Riccardo Orsolini, ever a threat down the flank, will look to stretch the Israeli back line, whilst Maccabi’s creative midfielder Ido Shahar—responsible for two of their solitary Europa League goals—will shoulder the attacking burden. Both sides arrive with much to prove, and individual brilliance could tip the scale.

A standout statistic? Despite languishing bottom, Maccabi Tel Aviv posted a thrilling 6-5 win over Hapoel Tel Aviv just weeks ago—a timely reminder that their attacking unit can ignite unexpectedly. For Bologna, notable is their recent uptick in offensive output, bagging nine goals across their last five outings.

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Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Bologna prediction

Given the chasm in form and continental pedigree, Bologna are clear favourites according to both the bookies and the stats. Their 60% average probability dwarfs Maccabi’s 17%, a result of Bologna’s ability to fashion consistent attacking chances—88 total shots compared to Maccabi’s 51 across the last five. Still, as evidenced by Maccabi’s wild 6-5 local derby, the Israeli side are capable of moments of attacking chaos.

Bologna generally control proceedings with their 4-2-3-1, mixing high press and patient build-up. They’re not immune to defensive lapses, however, as reflected by their 11 yellow cards and two reds in just five games—but Maccabi have offered little threat at this level, with one goal in their last three continental fixtures. Expect Bologna to dictate possession and squeeze Maccabi, whose primary route to goal rests with shooting from range or quick counters led by Shahar or Yehezkel.

Fouls and bookings could play a key role—32 corners by Bologna highlight both their attacking intent and Maccabi’s likely need to defend set-pieces. With both teams comfortable with the same system, shape and discipline may well decide the match. Maccabi’s 54% passing success under pressure hints at possible midfield turnovers, which Bologna’s sharper unit should exploit.

Team Analysis

Maccabi Tel Aviv recent games:
Maccabi Tel Aviv’s form paints a messy picture: their last five matches reveal a side capable of dazzling (that unforgettable 6-5 win over Hapoel Tel Aviv) but also susceptible to collapse (1-4 at home to Maccabi Haifa, 0-1 versus Freiburg in Europe). Their defensive organisation has been lacking, conceding 19 goals in seven Europa League matches. Still, their talismanic midfielder Ido Shahar has stepped up when possible, notching both of their group stage goals. Their approach relies on energetic flurries and capitalising on opponents’ momentary lapses, but the lack of set-piece goals and zero free kick conversions underscores their need for open-play ingenuity.

Bologna recent games:
Bologna’s fortunes have oscillated—one win in their last eight does little justice to their improved attacking fluency of late, as shown by nine goals in five games and a 2-3 thriller against Genoa. Vincenzo Italiano’s men succeeded in a 3-2 win over Verona and a spirited 2-2 draw away at Celtic. Defensive fragility persists, illustrated by a spate of bookings and an unflattering 13% win rate in the past month. Nevertheless, their attacking force remains potent, fuelled by the movement of Orsolini, Odgaard, and the midfield drive of Lewis Ferguson.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Bologna stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Bologna the favourite

• Moneyline Maccabi Tel Aviv 5.95 – 6.19 | Bologna 1.53 – 1.63
• Draw 3.80 – 4.40
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.80 | Under 2.5 2.02
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.70 | No 2.10

Given the odds, Bologna are deservedly favoured thanks to their technical superiority, higher shot count, and the urgency to secure points for progression. Maccabi’s lengthy price reflects their defensive frailties and lack of cutting edge. Still, their ability to score in chaotic encounters—witnessed by the 6-5 win—makes “Both Teams To Score” and “Over 2.5 Goals” especially compelling, rather than trusting Maccabi for the outright upset.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Maccabi Tel Aviv possible starting eleven

This predicted lineup sticks to a familiar 4-2-3-1, with Ofek Melika’s propensity for key saves pivotal at the back. The defence, led by Shlomo and reinforced by Yehezkel’s thrust, will need to be both aggressive and shrewd against Bologna’s dynamic frontline. Shahar and Sissokho operate as the midfield engine, while Varela, sharpest in recent outings, should pose the greatest threat in tandem with Madmon. Keep an eye on Roy Revivo’s lateral forays, which could prove vital if the match opens up.

Bologna possible starting eleven

For Bologna, the tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1 remains the setup, with Ravaglia deservedly between the sticks after a run of solid displays. Defence will depend on Miranda’s composure and Heggem’s overlapping energy. The engine room is manned by Ferguson and Freuler, offering guile and grit, with Pobega likely to threaten from deep. Orsolini’s flair and Odgaard’s directness provide incisive width and penetration, while Casale and Vitik anchor the back line. Ferguson is absolutely the man to watch—his ability to transition from defence to attack could be the spark in midfield.

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My take on the Match

All things considered, Bologna look a level above, boasting tactical discipline and more consistent goal-scoring. If Maccabi Tel Aviv can summon their home spirit and unleash their creative spark—especially from Shahar—the Italians might have to withstand a tempest or two. However, my main pick is Bologna to win by two clear goals, with a likely scoreline in the 1-3 region. Expect both teams to find the net amid a lively midfield battle, but superior Italian knowhow should seal the deal. Still, with football’s unpredictability, is it wise to dismiss the possibility of a late Maccabi twist? We wouldn’t be true football fans if we didn’t leave the door ajar!

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