Sofia Quijada
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
Macara host Universidad Catolica at Estadio Bellavista in Ambato in a Liga Pro Apertura fixture that carries serious table implications. Sitting second with 41 points, Macara welcome a Catolica side just three points behind in third place — a win for either team reshuffles the top of the table considerably. What makes this one particularly interesting is that Catolica have beaten Macara in each of their last five meetings, including a 4-0 result earlier this Apertura phase.
José Fajardo has been the standout performer for Universidad Catolica in recent weeks, scoring four goals across his last four appearances. For Macara, midfielder Jose Cazares is the engine in the middle, accumulating the highest foul count and pass volume among his teammates, making him both a creator and a defensive shield. Macara’s hot stat worth flagging: they put away four goals against Sociedad Deportiva Aucas just weeks ago, showing they can be clinical when the conditions suit them — their attack is not as toothless as their head-to-head record against Catolica suggests.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Liga Pro 2026 – Apertura (Ecuador) |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Bellavista, Ambato |
| 🗓️ Date: | 18.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 02:00 CEST |
Macara vs Universidad Catolica Prediction
The bookmakers lean clearly toward Universidad Catolica at around 45% win probability, and the numbers back that up. Catolica have won five of their last seven matches, carry a superior goal difference (+19 vs +8), and have been dominant in this exact fixture — four wins from four in 2024 and 2025, with an aggregate score of 10-2 against Macara across those meetings. Playing away has not slowed them down in this rivalry.
Macara are not without hope at home. They have won four of their last seven fixtures and beat Barcelona SC and Santos in recent weeks. Guillermo Sanguinetti’s side plays a 4-2-3-1 that prioritizes defensive compactness, evidenced by their 37 interceptions across the last five matches. The problem is that Catolica’s 63 total shots and 20 corner kicks in the same window suggest they generate sustained pressure that Macara’s backline has historically struggled to contain.
Catolica’s disciplinary record is notably cleaner — just four yellow cards compared to Macara’s ten — which suggests Diego Martínez’s side keeps shape without overcommitting. Their pass accuracy of 89% versus Macara’s 78% points to a team that controls tempo and territory. We predict a Universidad Catolica win here, with the away side doing enough to extend their unbeaten run in this fixture.
- Main Tip: Universidad Catolica to Win — consistent head-to-head dominance, superior form, and cleaner stats all point in one direction.
- Over 2.5 Goals — Macara have scored in four of five recent games and Catolica average 1.6 goals per match this period, making a high-scoring game likely.
- Both Teams to Score: Yes — Macara have found the net regularly at home, and Catolica have conceded in recent away fixtures too.
Macara commit significantly more fouls (59 vs 38 in the last five games) and carry more yellow card risk, which gives Catolica more set-piece opportunities. With 47 free kicks generated in five matches, Catolica’s dead-ball threat adds another dimension to their attacking output.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Universidad Catolica to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Macara come into this match on a mixed run. They beat Santos 1-2 away (from Macara’s perspective, a loss — Santos won 2-1), then bounced back with a 2-1 home win over Barcelona SC, followed by wins over Guayaquil City and a 4-1 demolition of Sociedad Deportiva Aucas. A draw against Gualaceo SC sits in that sequence. Their last recorded match was a 1-2 defeat to Santos, which interrupted a promising run. Sanguinetti’s 4-2-3-1 has produced results at home, but the team’s high foul count and ten yellow cards in five games suggest they play on the edge defensively.
Universidad Catolica’s recent form is more concerning on paper than it looks at first glance. A 1-2 loss to Libertad was sandwiched between a 3-2 win over Vinotinto and a dominant 5-0 thrashing of Tecnico Universitario. Earlier they drew 0-0 with Guayaquil City and beat Barcelona SC 2-1. The loss to Libertad (ranked 13,325 in the world) stands out as an anomaly rather than a trend — Catolica had won three of the four matches before it. José Fajardo’s four goals and Azarias Londono’s goal-plus-assist contribution give Martínez’s attack real punch going forward.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Macara | Universidad Catolica |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 14 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Macara vs Universidad Catolica stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Universidad Catolica the Favourite
- Moneyline Macara 3.60 | Universidad Catolica 1.95
- Draw 3.20
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
Pinnacle offers the sharpest line with Macara at 3.77 and Catolica at 2.07, reflecting roughly a 48% implied probability for the away win. Bet365’s 2.20 on Catolica stands out as the most generous among mainstream books and offers value given the head-to-head record. The draw at 3.20-3.31 is tempting on the surface, but these two teams have only drawn once in their last eight meetings, making it a low-probability outcome despite the reasonable price. We see the best value in backing Catolica outright, particularly at Bet365’s 2.20.
Macara . Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Macara Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Rodrigo Rodríguez
- DF: Jairo Jimenez, Marlon Medranda, Denilson Bolanos
- MF: Jose Cazares, Jean Estacio, Matías Miranda
- FW: Darwin Cuero
Macara line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape. Rodrigo Rodríguez starts in goal with ten saves across five matches, making him the busiest keeper in this fixture. Denilson Bolanos anchors the left side of defense with five interceptions and solid minutes. In midfield, Jose Cazares is the player to watch — 158 passes attempted, nine interceptions, and 11 fouls across four games paint the picture of a combative, high-volume operator who will need to be at his best to contain Catolica’s midfield. Jean Estacio provides the attacking link with a goal contribution and high ball involvement from an advanced midfield role.
Universidad Catolica Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Johan Lara
- DF: Luis Cangá, Jhon Chancellor, Eddy Mejia, Luis Johan Moreno
- MF: Facundo Martinez, Mauro Díaz, Jerónimo Cacciabue, Andrés Rodríguez
- FW: José Fajardo, Azarias Londono
Diego Martínez sets up in a 4-2-3-1 as well. Johan Lara has kept 11 saves in four appearances and is reliable between the sticks. Jhon Chancellor and Luis Cangá form a composed central defensive partnership with high pass volumes and minimal foul counts. The key figure is José Fajardo — four goals and one assist in four matches, 12 total shots, and the highest attacking output on the squad. Mauro Díaz, with two assists and 254 passes attempted at 87% accuracy, pulls the strings in the middle. Azarias Londono adds a second goal threat from a deeper forward position, making Catolica’s front line genuinely difficult to pin down.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Universidad Catolica. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Every data point from this fixture’s history favors Universidad Catolica. They have won all five previous meetings, scored 14 goals to Macara’s two across those games, and arrive with better form, sharper passing, fewer disciplinary issues, and a more dangerous forward line. Macara’s home advantage and their 4-2-3-1 structure will make this competitive, but Cazares and Estacio will need to keep Fajardo and Londono quiet — a task that has beaten every Macara defensive setup in recent years. We predict a Universidad Catolica win, with goals at both ends keeping the match alive into the second half. The 1-2 or 0-2 scoreline looks the most plausible outcome based on the pattern of previous meetings and current form.
