Los Chankas vs Tarma Predictions: Odds and betting tips for Liga 1 2025 Match - 04.07.2025

The Liga 1 Apertura 2025 continues to bring the excitement and drama of Peruvian football to center stage as Los Chankas host Tarma at the Estadio Los Chankas in Andahuaylas on July 4, 2025. Kick-off is scheduled for 23:15 CEST. Both clubs come into this clash with everything to play for in the mid-table battle, each needing points to stabilize their season and stake a claim for higher ambition. Coached by Walter Paolella, Los Chankas look to assert home advantage in the altitude, while Orlando Romero’s Tarma squad must respond after a challenging spell of results. The venue, known for its lively atmosphere, will provide the perfect backdrop for a contest that could shift the dynamics at the heart of Liga 1.

Key figures to watch include Los Chankas’ dynamic forward Oshiro Takeuchi, whose recent scoring exploits have been pivotal, and Tarma’s versatile midfielder Gerson Barreto, a crucial link between defense and attack. Both players’ performances will be instrumental, excluding goalkeepers, in dictating their teams’ fortunes for this vital fixture.

Hot stat: Los Chankas have netted six times in their last five outings, underscoring a renewed attacking threat, whereas Tarma have failed to score over the same span, highlighting stark contrasts in offensive momentum.

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Los Chankas vs Tarma predictions

Me best bet: Los Chankas to win. Los Chankas show superior home form, registering two victories in their last four matches and scoring six goals in their previous five. By contrast, Tarma enter this match on a scoreless, winless streak across their last two league outings; this offensive drought, combined with recent defensive vulnerabilities, positions the home side as favorites. Expect Los Chankas’ forward line, led by Takeuchi, to make the difference against a Tarma defense struggling to maintain shape in the 5-4-1.

Both teams exhibit distinctive approaches. Los Chankas, set up in a 3-1-4-2, prioritize quick transitions and exploit width, but their aggressive pressing often leads to higher foul and yellow card counts (43 fouls, 11 yellows in last five). Tarma balance their 5-4-1 shape with a focus on regaining possession but have struggled in duels and often concede territory—evident in their lower number of interceptions and higher foul average (22 fouls, 3 yellows). Expect a physical battle in midfield, yet Los Chankas’ organization and attacking impetus could be the edge in a match not short on intensity.

• ⚽Total Goals: Under 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: No
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 7.5

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Los Chankas vs Tarma Most recent H2Hs

In their only prior meeting in the 2024 Clausura, Tarma prevailed 2-1 over Los Chankas, capitalizing on defensive lapses and demonstrating clinical finishing. While Los Chankas controlled large stretches of possession and generated more shooting opportunities, they lacked the composure in the final third—a factor that could be pivotal in the rematch. The history between these sides is brief but highly competitive, mirroring the balanced odds for this encounter.

🚨Read our full Los Chankas vs Tarma stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Los Chankas have scored in every home game across the last month.
• Tarma are yet to score in their last five matches—a streak that has put pressure on their tactical setup.
• Both teams have above-average foul counts, suggesting a physical contest is likely.
• Los Chankas average 9.6 shots per match compared to Tarma’s 5.6 in recent games.
• Tarma’s pass accuracy dipped to just 79% in their last away outing, reflecting mounting pressure from opponents.
• Los Chankas received 11 yellow cards in their last five games—discipline may be a concern in tight moments.
• Tarma have kept only one clean sheet in their last seven matches.

Los Chankas vs Tarma score prediction: 2-0

A controlled, professional display from Los Chankas is anticipated, especially given their consistent attacking threat at home and Tarma’s glaring struggle in front of goal. Expect Takeuchi to exploit spaces between Tarma’s lines, while midfield dynamo Franco Torres orchestrates transitions. Defensively, the pairing of Ayrthon Carlos and H. González should provide the rigidity required to nullify any rare threats from Tarma’s Rengifo or Barreto.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Los Chankas the favourite

The bookmakers reflect slight favoritism towards Los Chankas, largely attributable to home advantage and Tarma’s offensive woes. Value is found in the “No” for both teams to score—Tarma’s form suggests a goal will be hard to come by. With both sides closely matched in the outright market, small details such as individual brilliance and set-piece execution could tip the scale.

Los Chankas vs Tarma Over/Under Analysis

• Los Chankas average just over 1.2 goals per game at home.
• Four of Tarma’s last five matches finished under 2.5 goals.
• Only twice in their last 10 combined games have both sides scored in the same match.
• Both teams are more likely to score from set pieces than open play—look for defenders to be involved in attacking dead-balls.

Los Chankas Preview

Los Chankas enter this fixture after a morale-boosting 2-1 victory over Ayacucho, matching their earlier statement win against Sporting Cristal (3-1). Despite a 0-3 setback versus Juan Pablo II, the squad’s attacking balance and tactical flexibility—especially with Takeuchi and Manzaneda in the forward line—continue to yield opportunities. Their blend of direct play and fluid movement in the 3-1-4-2 is complemented by solid contributions from midfield (Torres, Guivin) and steady build-up from the back. However, discipline and defensive lapses in the second phase remain areas to address.

Los Chankas possible starting eleven

Tarma Preview

Tarma arrive needing a turnaround, having failed to score in recent outings, with their most recent match ending 0-0 against Deportivo Garcilaso. Previously, a heavy 0-5 defeat to Universitario de Deportes underscored weaknesses in both structure and mentality. Yet, in the draws versus Juan Pablo II and Sport Cristal, the team showed flashes of defensive discipline and midfield work rate, spearheaded by Barreto and bolstered by Bersano in defense. However, Orlando Romero will be acutely aware that his team needs to rediscover cutting edge up front—perhaps calling upon Óscar Pinto or Rengifo—to have a chance in Andahuaylas.

Tarma possible starting eleven

Our prediction: Who Wins?

As the Tips.GG analysis team, we are aligning with a Los Chankas victory (winning probability: 38% per our AI engine). Our pick stems from their superior home record, creative offensive outputs, and the psychological boost of recent wins. Tarma must resolve issues in the final third and regain the defensive solidity that defined their early season. Expect Los Chankas to grasp this crucial opportunity, with a disciplined but assertive display before their faithful.

How to watch Los Chankas vs Tarma

• When? July 4th, 2025, at 23:15 CEST
• Where? Estadio Los Chankas, Andahuaylas
• How to watch: Local Peruvian sports broadcasters (details TBA) and streaming via official Liga 1 digital platforms
• Favorite: Los Chankas

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