Londrina PR vs Novorizontino Prediction: 27 July 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro Série B

Londrina PR host Novorizontino at Estadio Vitorino Goncalves Dias in a mid-table Série B clash where both sides sit in the bottom half of the standings and desperately need points. Londrina sit 17th with 13 points from 13 games, while Novorizontino are just two places above them in 15th on 16 points. The most compelling context here is the recent head-to-head: Londrina hammered Novorizontino 3-1 earlier this season when the bookmakers gave them only a 57% chance, suggesting the home side can punch above their apparent weight against this specific opponent.

Two players stand out for this fixture. For Londrina, Yago Lincoln Rocha Santos has been one of the more active defenders in the squad, contributing a goal, five interceptions and 164 passes across the last four matches, making him central to both defensive structure and build-up play. For Novorizontino, Robson is the primary attacking threat, netting two goals and adding an assist in just three appearances, with seven total shots in that span.

Hot stat: Londrina scored five goals in a single match against CRB just weeks ago, yet have managed only two goals across their other four most recent games, highlighting a feast-or-famine attacking pattern that makes their scoring markets genuinely unpredictable.

Londrina PR vs Novorizontino Prediction

Novorizontino arrive as bookmaker favourites at roughly 46% implied probability, but the numbers from this season tell a more complicated story. Enderson Moreira’s side have won only one of their last four matches, losing three, while Londrina under Rogério Micale are unbeaten in two of their last four and are playing at home, where the crowd factor in Brazilian lower-division football is significant. The earlier Série B meeting ended 3-1 to Londrina, and that result should not be dismissed as a fluke.

Londrina average slightly more goals across their last five games (7 total) compared to Novorizontino’s four, and they take the same number of total shots (58 each). Novorizontino do hold a clear edge in pass accuracy, completing 1,185 accurate passes to Londrina’s 985, which suggests the visitors control possession more effectively. Londrina, though, commit more fouls (59 vs 51) and earn more corners (24 vs 20), reflecting a more direct, aggressive style that tends to generate set-piece opportunities. Given the home advantage, Londrina’s recent H2H dominance, and Novorizontino’s poor run of form, backing the home win or at least keeping it tight offers real value.

• We predict a Londrina PR win or draw (Double Chance X1) as the primary recommendation, given home advantage and the visitors’ three losses in their last four outings.
• Over 2.5 goals carries genuine appeal given Londrina’s 5-0 win over CRB and the 3-1 H2H result this season, though Novorizontino’s defensive solidity in some games tempers confidence.
• We predict BTTS No is the lean, as Novorizontino have failed to score in three of their last four matches.

Team Analysis

Londrina’s recent form reads as inconsistent but not alarming for a side at this level. Their last five matches include a standout 5-0 demolition of CRB, a 1-1 draw with America MG, a goalless draw with Botafogo SP, and a 1-2 defeat to Nautico. The loss to Nautico is their most recent result and came against a side that themselves have been erratic. Londrina’s goal tally of seven in five games is acceptable, and their 24 corners in that stretch shows they create pressure in wide areas. The squad rotation is modest, with Gabriel Santos Lacerda, Yago Lincoln, Heron, and goalkeeper Mauricio Kozlinski all featuring in four of the five games, providing continuity at the back.

Novorizontino’s last five matches paint a concerning picture ahead of this trip. They lost to Criciuma (0-1) and Fortaleza (0-1) in their two most recent fixtures, and also fell to Operario PR (1-2) before that. Their only bright spot was a 3-0 win over Atletico Goianiense. Robson has provided almost all of their attacking output, with the rest of the forward line contributing very little. Goalkeeper Jordi made only five saves across four matches, reflecting how few shots on target opponents have even needed to take against this Novorizontino side. The 4-1-4-1 shape gives them defensive compactness on paper, but the recent results suggest it is not functioning well away from home.

🚨Check out our dedicated Londrina PR vs Novorizontino stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Novorizontino the Favourite

• Moneyline Londrina PR 3.65 | Novorizontino 2.06
• Draw 3.10

Londrina at 3.65 with Bovada and Everygame represents genuine value. The bookmakers’ average puts Novorizontino as 46% favourites, yet Londrina beat them 3-1 earlier this season and are at home. Novorizontino’s current run of three losses in four makes the visitors’ short price look inflated. The draw at 3.10 is also worth noting if you want coverage, but the home win at 3.65 is where the value sits based on the data available.

Possible Starting Lineups

Londrina PR Possible Starting Eleven

Rogério Micale has settled into a 4-3-3 shape across recent games. Mauricio Kozlinski is the clear first-choice goalkeeper with four consecutive starts. The back four of Lacerda, Yago Lincoln, Kaue Prado, and Heron has been the most consistent unit in the squad. Moccelin anchors the midfield with eight total shots in four appearances, and Gilberto leads the forward line with a goal from four games. Pablo Dyego, with six shots and three offsides in three matches, is the main outlet for direct play up front.

Novorizontino Possible Starting Eleven

Enderson Moreira’s 4-1-4-1 places Robson as the lone striker, supported by a compact midfield band. Luís Oyama is the most influential central midfielder, contributing a goal, eight interceptions and 133 passes in four games, making him the engine of the side. Patrick Marcos de Sousa Freitas has been remarkably active from right back, racking up 236 passes and four interceptions in four appearances. Maykon Kesley mirrors that output on the left. The system is built to absorb pressure and counter, though the recent results suggest it is struggling to create enough from that structure.

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The Verdict

The data points consistently toward Londrina being undervalued here. They beat Novorizontino 3-1 in the only meeting this season, they are at home, and Novorizontino have lost three of their last four games while failing to score in two of their last three. Londrina’s 59 fouls and 24 corners in five games reflect a combative, set-piece-oriented approach that suits home conditions at Estadio Vitorino Goncalves Dias. Novorizontino’s pass accuracy and interception numbers (41 in five games) show they work hard defensively, but their attacking output is far too dependent on Robson. We predict Londrina PR to win this match, with the home win at 3.65 the standout value play. A score of 2-0 or 2-1 to the hosts fits the profile of both teams’ recent performances.

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