Londrina PR vs Nautico Prediction: 12.11.2026 Campeonato Brasileiro Série B Preview

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Second-bottom Londrina PR host Nautico at the Estádio do Café in a round that carries heavy relegation stakes for the hosts and very little for the visitors. The market makes Londrina 61% favourites despite one win in six, a read that says less about the hosts’ form than about Nautico’s attack: the Recife side have scored once in their last five matches. Nautico also won July’s reverse fixture 2-1, so they arrive with the psychological edge and a blunt forward line at the same time. Londrina, 19th on 25 points from 31 games, sit eleven points from safety with seven rounds left. Nautico, 13th on 43 points, are seven clear of the bottom four with five to play. That asymmetry of desperation shapes our entire read of this fixture.

Watch Herbert up front for Londrina: five starts, sixteen shots and one of the two goals the hosts have managed in that span, the clearest threat on either side. For Nautico, Vinicius carries the midfield threat with fifteen shots and the most passing volume in the visitors’ ranks, yet no goal to show for it, a microcosm of his team’s season. The hot stat belongs to Nautico’s attack: 71 shots in five matches, one goal.

Londrina PR vs Nautico prediction

We predict a narrow home win, 1-0 to Londrina PR. The 61% market line on the hosts looks generous against one win in six, but Nautico’s scoring drought is the tiebreaker: a side that has found the net once in five matches, on the road, against a relegation-haunted opponent playing for survival, rarely wins this type of fixture. Londrina’s own numbers are poor, five scored and eleven conceded across the same run, yet their desperation at home should decide a tight game.

Style profiles back the low-scoring lean. Both sides sit at 85% pass accuracy over the last five rounds, so this will not be a technical mismatch. The differences show elsewhere. Londrina commit 12.6 fouls per game and defend in a deep block, evidenced by 45 interceptions in five matches, while Nautico push higher and generate more volume: 71 shots and 26 corners to Londrina’s 64 and 16. Volume without conversion defines the visitors. Discipline is the other fault line, since Nautico’s sixteen yellow cards in five games, triple Londrina’s rate, point to late tackles once the hosts sit deep and counter. Expect fouls in midfield, few clear chances, and the match to turn on a single moment, most likely a set piece or a Herbert half-chance.

Team Analysis

Londrina’s last five read L-L-L-W-D: a 0-4 hammering by Botafogo SP last time out, a 1-3 defeat to America MG and a 1-2 loss to CRB before that, with the lone win a gritty 1-0 over Cuiaba and a 2-2 draw against Athletic Club. Eleven conceded in five tells the defensive story, five scored tells the attacking one. The season numbers are grim: six wins in 31 league games, a minus ten goal difference and 19th place, with only Ponte Preta and America MG beneath them. Hugo Chacon has kept the spine intact, Wallace Reis da Silva has played every minute of the last five, but the side has managed one clean sheet in that run and the 0-4 loss to Botafogo SP was the heaviest defeat of the sequence. Herbert and William Pottker are the only listed scorers from the last five, which explains why sixteen shots from Herbert feel like Londrina’s best route to a goal.

Nautico’s run is one win in five, and that win, 1-0 over Avai, produced their only goal of the span. Last time out they lost 0-3 to CRB, their heaviest defeat since the 0-4 against Juventude earlier in the month, and before that came a 0-0 with Goias and a 0-2 loss to Vila Nova. The schedule read like a tour of the country’s margins, with fixtures against clubs from Maceió, Florianópolis, Caxias do Sul and Goiânia, and one goal to show for all of it. Bruno Pivetti’s men sit 13th on 43 points, so pressure is minimal while Londrina’s is maximal. Nineteen wins in 44 matches this year, a 43% winrate, is respectable; the last month is not, and the finishing has gone missing at the worst time.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

Nautico hold the recent edge in this fixture. They won July’s reverse meeting 2-1, beat Londrina 2-0 in the 2025 Série C campaign, and Londrina’s last win in the series dates back to a 3-2 game in August 2024. The table below pulls each side’s numbers from their last five league matches.

🚨Check out our dedicated Londrina PR vs Nautico stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Londrina PR the favourite

• Moneyline Londrina PR 1.51 | Nautico 5.46
• Draw 4.13

Those prices translate to a 61/22/17 probability split once the bookmaker margin is removed, matching the market consensus exactly. Londrina at 1.51 is short for a team with one win in six, yet Nautico’s attack gives the price its logic: one goal in five matches from 71 attempts. The draw at 4.13 deserves respect, since Nautico have drawn ten league games and Londrina seven, and a goalless grind is live here. Our play stays with the hosts on the win-to-nil angle, where the price still pays for the risk of Londrina’s leaky defence.

Possible Starting Lineups

Chacon’s 4-2-3-1 follows the minutes. Kozlinski starts in goal, and Wallace Reis da Silva, ever-present across the last five with 342 passes and eight interceptions, leads the back line. Heron slots into the pivot beside Lucas Marques, with Pablo Dyego, Joao Coni and William Pottker, one of only two scorers in the run, behind Herbert, whose sixteen shots lead the side. Artur and Nino Paraíba are the rotation candidates at full-back after the heavy defeat.

Pivetti mirrors the shape. Guruceaga keeps goal after twelve saves in five matches, and Reginaldo and Wanderson, ever-presents in selection, anchor the back four alongside Alberto Magno and Igor Fernandes, the squad’s busiest passer with 210 passes. Samuel and Wenderson da Silva Costa Ferreira screen, while Vinicius, fifteen shots without reward, and Jean Carlos support Kauan Almeida da Costa, with Derek Freitas Ribeiro offering width. Benjamín Borasi, the only Nautico player to score in the last five, is the likeliest change if Pivetti chases a goal.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Everything points to a low-scoring, single-goal affair. Londrina’s survival desperation meets Nautico’s goal drought, and the market’s 61% home confidence survives contact with the form guide only because the visitors cannot score. We predict Londrina PR to win 1-0, with under 2.5 goals, no BTTS and the win-to-nil as the value play. The corner count should edge over 8.5 thanks to Nautico’s 5.2 per game. The main risk is the draw, given both teams’ heavy sharing tendencies this season, and if Nautico score first, Londrina’s fragile defence could fold. That first-goal scenario is the one outcome our tips table does not cover, so the win-to-nil carries its risk premium for a reason.

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