Rafael Nogueira
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Londrina welcome Fortaleza to the Estadio Vitorino Goncalves Dias with the hosts fighting to stay out of the relegation mess and the visitors chasing a top-six finish. Londrina sit 18th with just 21 points from 22 games, yet arrive off the back of a 6-0 demolition of bottom-placed Ponte Preta. Fortaleza have not lost in seven straight matches and hold seventh spot with a game in hand on most rivals above them. The gap in league position and consistency is wide, and it shows in the betting market too.
Herbert Mateus Almeida De Oliveira has been Londrina’s spark plug lately, scoring twice with an assist in just three appearances and firing 12 shots in that stretch. On the other side, Maílton has turned into an attacking threat from the back for Fortaleza, netting twice in his last five games while playing every minute at right-back. Both are worth tracking closely on Sunday.
Hot stat: Fortaleza have gone seven matches without defeat in the last 30 days (3 wins, 4 draws), while Londrina’s only win of note in that span came by a 6-0 margin against the division’s last-placed side, a result that inflates their attacking numbers but says little about their form against sides closer to their own level.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série B 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Vitorino Goncalves Dias, Londrina |
| 🗓️ Date: | 20.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 23:30 CEST |
Londrina PR vs Fortaleza prediction
We predict a narrow Fortaleza win, or at worst a share of the points for the away side. Fortaleza’s unbeaten run of seven games, paired with a squad that sits ten places higher in the table, makes them the more reliable side heading into this fixture. Londrina’s 6-0 win last time out came against a team with just 10 points, and their underlying form, two wins and two losses in their last six, tells a more honest story. The bookmakers’ 37% implied probability for Fortaleza against 32% for Londrina reflects that gap fairly, and our punters team leans toward backing the away side, perhaps with a small stake on the draw as insurance given how tight recent head-to-head history has been.
Londrina commit more fouls (80 in their last five compared to Fortaleza’s 71) and pick up more cards (12 yellows against 8), which points to a more physical approach at home. Fortaleza pass with far greater accuracy, 86.3% compared to Londrina’s 80.3%, and that control usually translates into fewer clean sight of goal for the opponent. Expect Fortaleza to dominate possession stretches while Londrina look to disrupt the rhythm through pressing and set pieces, where their 31 corners in five games (against Fortaleza’s 24) hint at a genuine aerial threat from dead-ball situations.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Fortaleza Double Chance (Draw or Win) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Londrina’s 6-0 win against Ponte Preta was their standout result of the year, with Herbert Mateus contributing directly to the goal tally, but it came against a side with the league’s worst defensive record. Before that, they beat Sao Bernardo 2-1, lost 1-2 to Operario PR, drew 0-0 with Juventude, and fell 1-2 to Ceara. That sequence, two wins, one draw, two losses, shows a team capable of scoring in bursts but leaking goals against sides with any organization, which lines up with their bottom-half standing.
Fortaleza’s form curve trends the opposite way. Their last outing ended 1-1 against Ceara, following wins over Avai (1-0), Goias (1-0) and Criciuma (2-0), plus a 1-1 draw with Operario PR. In our preview of Fortaleza vs Ceara we backed Fortaleza to keep a clean sheet and win under 2.5 goals, and the 1-1 scoreline went against that call since Ceara found the net too. Fortaleza still remain unbeaten across that stretch, and their defensive discipline, conceding just a handful of goals across five games, keeps them firm favourites on paper against a Londrina side struggling for consistency.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
The two sides met once earlier this season, with Fortaleza winning 3-0 away from home. Outside of that fixture, there is little recent competitive history between these clubs to draw further statistical comparisons from.
| Statistic | Londrina PR | Fortaleza |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0 | 3 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Londrina PR vs Fortaleza stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Fortaleza the favourite
- Moneyline Londrina PR 3.00 | Fortaleza 2.55
- Draw 3.00
The market treats this as a genuine three-way contest with the away side holding a slight edge, and that lines up with the underlying stats. Fortaleza’s higher pass accuracy and unbeaten streak justify their status as favourites, while Londrina’s home form keeps the draw price competitive rather than long. We see value on Fortaleza to avoid defeat rather than chasing the outright win price, given how tight the market has priced this one.
Possible Starting Lineups
Londrina PR possible starting eleven
- GK: Mauricio Kozlinski
- DF: Wallace Reis da Silva, Gabriel Santos Cordeiro Lacerda, Heron, Kaue Leonardo De Souza Prado
- MF: Thalis Henrique Cantanhede, Lucas Marques
- FW: Gilberto, William Pottker, Herbert Mateus Almeida De Oliveira, Pablo Dyego
Rogério Micale should stick with the 4-2-3-1 that has featured in the last five outings. Herbert Mateus, fresh off two goals and an assist in his last three games, looks the most likely creative outlet behind Pablo Dyego, with Kaue Leonardo anchoring a back four that has conceded regularly this season.
Fortaleza possible starting eleven
- GK: João Ricardo
- DF: Tomás Cardona, Lucas Xavier Gazal, Maílton, Kaio Henrique
- MF: Lucas Crispim, Ryan Gustavo de Lima
- FW: Juan Miritello, Paulo Baya, Pedro Henrique, Vitor Ferreira
Paulo Autuori has stuck to a settled 4-2-3-1 with João Ricardo an ever-present between the posts. Maílton’s two goals from full-back give the side an extra attacking outlet, while Vitor Ferreira, with two goals in 245 minutes, offers the sharpest finishing threat up front.
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Londrina PR. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Fortaleza’s seven-match unbeaten run against Londrina’s shaky home form makes the away side the more sensible pick, though the recent 6-0 scoreline for the hosts keeps a small shred of doubt in play. Our punters team leans toward Fortaleza avoiding defeat, with goals likely to stay on the lower side given both sides’ recent scoring patterns outside of that one lopsided result. A cautious 1-1 or a narrow 0-1 Fortaleza win reads as the most probable script here, and we would not be surprised if corners end up the more profitable market given Londrina’s set-piece habits at home.
