Rafael Nogueira
Two lower-half Série B sides meet at Estadio Vitorino Goncalves Dias on Saturday, with both Londrina PR (16th, 12 pts) and Botafogo SP (15th, 14 pts) desperate to pull away from the relegation zone. The gap between them is just two points, which gives this fixture a direct-duel edge that mid-table clashes rarely carry. Londrina’s recent 5-0 demolition of CRB was an outlier that flatters their season numbers, while Botafogo SP head in fresh off a 3-3 draw against Sport Recife, a match that showed both their attacking intent and defensive fragility. Defender Patrick Brey (Botafogo SP) has been one of the most surprising contributors from the back, netting 2 goals in his last 2 matches. For Londrina, forward Bruno Santos de Oliveira grabbed a brace in a single 90-minute outing, making him the most dangerous man Rogério Micale’s side can call upon.
Hot stat: Botafogo SP committed 41 fouls across their last 5 matches, the highest of the two sides, earning them 4 yellow cards. That foul count points to a side that defends aggressively and gives away set-piece opportunities regularly.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série B 2026 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Vitorino Goncalves Dias, Londrina |
| 🗓️ Date: | 18.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 02:00 CEST |
Londrina PR vs Botafogo SP Prediction
Both teams are locked in an almost identical run of form over the last 30 days: one win, one draw, zero losses each. The bookmakers lean toward Londrina at home (40% implied probability), which is fair given they have the home advantage and a slightly higher foul-and-fight mentality from the crowd factor. Botafogo SP’s pass accuracy across five recent matches sits at just 351 completed passes from 499 attempted, a noticeably lower completion rate than Londrina’s 424 from 540, suggesting Botafogo SP will struggle to build sustained pressure in an away environment.
Londrina’s 29 fouls in 5 matches versus Botafogo SP’s 41 tells a clear story: Botafogo SP defend with their bodies and give away free kicks at a high rate. Londrina, meanwhile, are more disciplined but not passive. Both sides share an identical goal tally of 6 over their last 5 matches, so neither is a high-scoring machine right now. The match is likely to be competitive and tight, with Londrina’s home edge being the deciding factor. We predict a narrow Londrina win or a draw, and the total goals market leans low.
- Best Value Bet: Londrina PR to win or draw (Double Chance)
- Total Goals: Under 2.5
- BTTS: No
- Corners: Under 10.5
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Botafogo SP to receive 2+ yellow cards |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 10.5 |
Team Analysis
Londrina PR’s last five matches produced a mixed picture. The 5-0 win over CRB stands out, but it bookends losses to Vila Nova (0-1) and Operario PR (0-3), plus a draw with America MG (1-1) most recently. Coach Rogério Micale’s side is inconsistent: they can score freely against weaker opposition but leak goals against organised mid-table teams. Their 4-1-4-1 shape provides midfield cover, and with only 6 yellow cards in 5 games, they are one of the more disciplined sides in this bracket. At home, they have the crowd and the familiarity of the pitch to lean on.
Botafogo SP’s recent run tells a similar story of inconsistency. A 3-1 win over Avai and the 3-3 draw against Sport Recife show attacking output, but they also drew 0-0 with Ponte Preta and lost 1-2 to Athletic Club. The 3-3 result is the most instructive: Botafogo SP scored three but gave up three, which reinforces concerns about their defensive structure. With 41 fouls and only 351 accurate passes in 5 games, Cláudio Tencati’s side relies on directness and physical pressure rather than possession. José Hugo Sousa dos Santos leads their creativity with 2 assists in his last 2 outings, making him a player to track closely.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Londrina PR | Botafogo SP |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 24 | 21 |
| Free kicks | 21 | 24 |
| Corner kicks | 9 | 8 |
| Total fouls | 29 | 41 |
| Interceptions | 17 | 17 |
| Offsides | 3 | 5 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Londrina PR vs Botafogo SP stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Londrina PR the Favourite
- Moneyline Londrina PR 2.38 | Botafogo SP 3.15
- Draw 3.05
The average market gives Londrina a 40% chance of winning at home, which translates to fair odds around 2.38-2.45 across most books. Pinnacle sits at 2.43, which is toward the generous end and represents value if you back the home side. The draw at 3.05-3.12 is also competitive given both teams’ low-scoring recent form. Botafogo SP at 3.00-3.45 reflects their away struggles and the fact that they sit two points above Londrina but have played one more game. To be honest, the market has this about right, but Londrina’s home record and Botafogo SP’s foul-heavy defensive approach make the hosts the sharper pick at current prices.
Possible Starting Lineups
Londrina PR Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Mauricio Kozlinski
- DF: Yago Lincoln Rocha Santos, Gabriel Santos Cordeiro Lacerda, Kaue Leonardo De Souza Prado, Heron
- MF: Paulo Roberto Moccelin, Thalis Henrique Cantanhede, Lucas Marques, Caio Rafael Aquino Lima
- MF: Wallace Reis da Silva
- FW: Bruno Santos de Oliveira
Londrina lines up in a 4-1-4-1 with Mauricio Kozlinski in goal, who made 9 saves across 2 recent matches and is a reliable last line. Yago Lincoln Rocha Santos is worth watching from centre-back, having scored once and contributing regularly in build-up. Bruno Santos de Oliveira leads the line and is the most direct attacking threat, having scored twice in a single match recently. The midfield five provides width and defensive cover, which suits Micale’s cautious home setup.
Botafogo SP Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Victor Souza
- DF: Patrick Brey, Gustavo Vilar dos Santos, Felipe Vieira Augusto, Wallace
- MF: Matheus Sales, Rafael Gava, Morelli, Leandro Maciel
- MF: Kelvin Giacobe Alves dos Santos
- FW: José Hugo Sousa dos Santos
Botafogo SP also deploy a 4-1-4-1 mirror setup. Victor Souza starts in goal with 5 saves in 2 outings. Patrick Brey is the standout name: two goals from right-back in two matches, plus a free-kick goal, making him a genuine set-piece threat. Morelli and Rafael Gava form a dynamic central midfield pairing, each contributing goals and assists recently. José Hugo Sousa dos Santos leads the attack with 1 goal and 2 assists in 2 games, and he will be the focal point of Botafogo SP’s forward play.
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Londrina PR. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
This is a relegation-zone battle between two sides that are more alike than different. Londrina PR hold home advantage, better pass accuracy, and fewer fouls committed, all of which support a controlled performance at Estadio Vitorino Goncalves Dias. Botafogo SP’s attacking spark is real, particularly from Brey, Morelli, and José Hugo, but their 41 fouls in 5 games and low pass completion rate suggest they will struggle to impose themselves on the road against a disciplined Londrina shape.
We predict a Londrina PR win by a single goal, with the match staying under 2.5 goals. Botafogo SP’s aggression will likely earn them at least two yellow cards, making that a worthwhile side market. The Double Chance on Londrina (win or draw) remains the safest value in this fixture at the current odds.
