Levi Rothermund
Stadion Lokomotiv in Plovdiv hosts the Sesame Kupa 2025/26 Final, pitting Lokomotiv Plovdiv against CSKA Sofia on May 20. The matchup draws plenty of intrigue: Lokomotiv plays at home, but CSKA comes in as the stronger favorite according to every major bookmaker. The two teams share the same country, but their seasons couldn’t have been more different—Lokomotiv Plovdiv had an inconsistent run, while CSKA Sofia kept up a more robust tempo, especially in high-pressure games.
Two players to watch: Lokomotiv’s creative midfielder, who has been pulling the strings in their recent wins, and CSKA’s sharp striker, whose finishing often tips close games. One “hot stat” to note: Lokomotiv have scored just five goals in their last five matches, while CSKA have managed only two in the same span—a sign this final might not turn into a shootout.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Sesame Kupa 2025/26 Final |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv |
| 🗓️ Date: | 20.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia prediction
We think CSKA Sofia will win the final. The team’s win rate this year sits at 58% over 24 matches, compared to Lokomotiv’s 43% from 23 matches. Bookmakers tip CSKA for a reason: their attack creates more chances, and their recent form has been steadier against better opposition. Lokomotiv’s run includes heavy defeats, notably a 0-4 home loss to Arda, which exposes defensive vulnerabilities.
Both sides tend to keep things tight. Lokomotiv and CSKA combine for low scoring and relatively few shots—Lokomotiv’s last five matches produced 24 shots, CSKA’s 29. Fouls and cards could impact the rhythm: CSKA have picked up 14 yellows in their last five, double Lokomotiv’s seven. Expect some physical play, and with both teams lining up in a 4-2-3-1, midfield congestion will likely slow the tempo. We see limited space for goals unless something uncharacteristic happens early on.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Under 2.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Lokomotiv Plovdiv’s last five matches tell a story of inconsistency. Their last outing—a 0-4 defeat to Arda—was particularly rough, exposing defensive gaps and a lack of attacking bite. Wins against Botev Plovdiv and Arda show their ability to grind out results, but the margin for error is slim. They’ve managed just five goals in this stretch, and only two clean sheets. Their form line: dllwwwddwldwwll, signals an up-and-down run.
CSKA Sofia come into the final with mixed results as well. Their last five matches include a 0-2 loss to Levski Sofia and a 1-1 draw with CSKA 1948 Sofia, but also wins over Ludogorets and the same CSKA 1948. Their goal output is even lower than Lokomotiv’s recently, with just two scored in five games. The team looks more solid defensively, but the attack has sputtered, and they have relied on disciplined structure rather than individual brilliance. The form reads: lwwlwwwdwldwwdl.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | CSKA Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 5 | 2 |
| Total shots | 24 | 29 |
| Free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corner kicks | 5 | 9 |
| Total fouls | 0 | 0 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 0 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: CSKA Sofia the favourite
- Moneyline Lokomotiv Plovdiv 5.25 | CSKA Sofia 1.57
- Draw 4.00
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.70 | Under 2.5 1.45
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.10 | No 1.65
Bookmakers rate CSKA Sofia as heavy favorites, with Lokomotiv’s odds drifting to over 5.0 on most sites. The under on goals is short at 1.45, reflecting both teams’ recent struggles in front of goal. “Both Teams To Score – No” is also favored, suggesting the market expects a cagey affair. The draw sits at 4.00, a nod to the high probability of a tight, low-scoring final. Our team thinks the odds line up well with recent results—there’s not much to indicate a shootout or a Lokomotiv upset.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Lokomotiv Plovdiv possible starting eleven
- GK: Iliev
- DF: Petrov, Minchev, Vasilev, Dimov
- MF: Tsvetkov, Pavlov, Ivanov, Georgiev, Stoyanov
- FW: Dimitrov
The squad picks itself from recent games, with Iliev between the sticks and a back four that has started most matches. Tsvetkov and Pavlov anchor midfield, supporting Ivanov and Georgiev, who bring the creativity. Dimitrov leads the line. Lokomotiv’s usual 4-2-3-1 will be on display, with Ivanov as a player to watch for late runs and set pieces.
CSKA Sofia possible starting eleven
- GK: Busatto
- DF: Turitsov, Mazikou, Mattheij, Youga
- MF: Geferson, Carey, Caicedo, Yomov, Henrique
- FW: Muhar
CSKA Sofia stick with a familiar lineup, relying on the spine of Busatto in goal and the experienced defensive pair of Mattheij and Youga. The midfield is busy—Geferson and Carey will try to control possession, while Yomov and Henrique push wide. Muhar gets the nod as the lone striker. The formation is 4-2-3-1, mirroring Lokomotiv, but CSKA’s attacking options on the flanks could prove decisive. Keep an eye on Caicedo, who’s due a goal.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
CSKA Sofia. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We think CSKA Sofia’s defensive shape and deeper bench give them the edge in the final. Lokomotiv Plovdiv’s home advantage might keep the match close, but their recent collapse against Arda is fresh in the mind, and it’s hard to ignore CSKA’s stronger season. Expect a tactical, low-scoring match with CSKA finding a way, maybe by a single goal. The TipsGG team backs a CSKA Sofia victory and under 2.5 goals as the best bet for value and probability.
