Liam Duckstein
FK Liepaja welcome Austria Vienna to the Daugava Stadium on 23 July in the second qualifying round of the UEFA Conference League 2026/27. The Austrian side arrives as a heavy favourite, with bookmakers giving them a 68% win probability against a Latvian opponent ranked far below them in the world club standings. What makes this tie worth watching is Austria Vienna’s recent inconsistency, which includes back-to-back draws in their last two away fixtures before a confident 4-1 home win over Paksi.
Two players stand out as ones to watch. For Liepaja, midfielder Chovanie Amatkarijo has contributed a goal and an assist across his three appearances and brings consistent pressing work in transition. For Austria Vienna, the team’s attacking depth was on display in the Paksi win, but the side has struggled to find a reliable goal threat in neutral venues, making whoever leads their line here a key figure to track.
Hot stat: Liepaja scored eight goals across their last five matches and registered 18 corner kicks in that same span, averaging 3.6 corners per game. That volume of set-piece activity could be a factor on Thursday evening.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27, Second Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Daugava Stadium, Liepaja |
| 🗓️ Date: | 23.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 17:00 CEST |
Liepaja vs Austria Vienna Prediction
Austria Vienna are the clear selection here. Despite their mixed league form this year, winning 46% of 24 matches, they have the quality gap over Liepaja to control this game. Liepaja have won just 44% of their 32 matches in 2026 and suffered three defeats in their last six outings. The Latvian side also lost to Daugavpils 1-3 in that recent stretch, showing they are vulnerable when facing technically superior opposition.
Austria Vienna’s 4-1 demolition of Paksi in their most recent outing, combined with a 4-0 win over Parndorf before that, suggests the team is building momentum at the right time. Their ability to win comfortably against lower-ranked opposition makes an Asian handicap or clean sheet market on the Austrian side appealing. Liepaja’s attack is active, but their pass accuracy sits at just 82% across the squad’s best contributors, and they carry the ball loosely in higher-pressure situations.
Liepaja committed 23 fouls across their last five matches and picked up six yellow cards, which shows a physical, disruption-based defensive approach. Austria Vienna, with their 4-2-3-1 structure, should be able to exploit the spaces left by Liepaja’s aggressive pressing. The corner count for Liepaja in recent games also suggests they tend to sit back and absorb pressure at stages, which suits Austria Vienna’s possession-heavy style.
| 🔥 Hot Tip: | Austria Vienna to win to nil |
| ⚽ Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥 Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯 Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Liepaja come into this match on a mixed run. Their last six games produced three wins and three defeats with no draws, which points to a team capable of winning against weaker opposition but exposed against stronger sides. Their most recent result was a 2-1 win over Decic, building on a 1-0 win against the same opponent a few days prior. Those back-to-back wins over Decic, a side rated at 1246, offered confidence, but Liepaja’s 1-3 loss to Daugavpils and 0-1 defeat to Auda earlier in the month raise real questions about their ceiling.
Austria Vienna arrive in better shape. Their last five matches include a 4-1 win over Paksi and a 4-0 win over Parndorf, with draws against Dunajska Streda and Debrecen sandwiched in between. The 0-3 loss to LASK earlier in the period was their only real setback. That defeat came against a team rated at 294 in the world rankings, one of the strongest sides in the Austrian domestic picture, which provides important context. Away from that result, Austria Vienna have looked sharp and purposeful in attack.
🚨 Check out our dedicated Liepaja vs Austria Vienna stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Austria Vienna the Favourite
- Moneyline Liepaja 7.89 | Austria Vienna 1.32
- Draw 4.75
The odds tell a straightforward story. Austria Vienna at around 1.32-1.39 across bookmakers reflects the genuine quality gap between these two sides. Pinnacle, which tends to be the sharpest market, has Austria Vienna at 1.32, with Liepaja at 7.89. That Liepaja price is generous enough that a small interest on the hosts to cause an upset is not entirely irrational, but the Austrian side’s recent form and squad depth make them a sound selection at these prices. The draw at 4.20-4.75 is the value outsider if Austria Vienna show any complacency in the first leg.
Possible Starting Lineups
Liepaja Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Davis Oss
- DF: Kirils Iljins, Vladislavs Sorokins, Marvin Martins, Amilcar Silva
- MF: Leonel Strumia, Chovanie Amatkarijo, Andriy Korobenko
- FW: Kyvon Leidsman, Djibril Gueye, Abiodun Ogunniyi
Davis Oss gets the nod in goal after four appearances and eight saves across the recent run. The back four builds around Vladislavs Sorokins, who leads the defensive unit in both passes and interceptions, and Marvin Martins, who has been a consistent presence at left back. Chovanie Amatkarijo is the most creative midfielder in this group and will need to be sharp if Liepaja are to create anything meaningful against a structured Austrian defence. Coach Vladimir Vassiljev looks set to stick with a 4-2-3-1 shape.
Austria Vienna Possible Starting Eleven
Austria Vienna’s roster data was not available from the provider for this fixture. Coach Stephan Helm is expected to deploy the team’s familiar 4-2-3-1 shape, which has been their consistent setup across the last five matches. The side that started the 4-1 win over Paksi is likely to feature here, with the attacking trio behind the striker being the key unit to watch.
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Austria Vienna. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Austria Vienna to win this first leg comfortably. The gap in squad quality, world ranking, and recent form against comparable opposition all point in the same direction. Liepaja have shown they can score goals, posting eight across their last five games, but their defensive record against stronger sides is a concern. The 1-3 loss to Daugavpils, a team rated well outside the top 20,000 globally, shows how quickly things can unravel for the Latvian side when the opponent presses with intensity.
Austria Vienna’s 4-0 and 4-1 wins in recent weeks demonstrate they have no hesitation in punishing weaker opposition. Their 4-2-3-1 system, combined with Liepaja’s high foul rate and yellow card accumulation, suggests the home side will struggle to keep the Austrian attack quiet for 90 minutes. We back Austria Vienna to win and keep a clean sheet, with the total goals market landing over 2.5. The corner line over 8.5 also looks reasonable given Liepaja’s tendency to concede territory when pressed.
