Sofia Quijada
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Macara arrive in Loja sitting third in the Liga Pro 2026 Apertura table with 42 points from 25 games, while Libertad sit eighth with 34 points and a negative goal difference. The gap in quality between these two sides is real, and the head-to-head record makes it even more telling: Macara have won three of the last four meetings, including a 3-0 hammering of Libertad in the most recent fixture earlier this season.
Jean Estacio has been quietly influential across Macara’s last five matches, contributing an assist and maintaining one of the highest pass volumes in the squad, making him a key creative cog to monitor. For Libertad, D. Coronel stands out with a goal and an assist in four appearances, providing the most direct attacking threat in coach Juan Pablo Buch’s side.
Hot stat: Macara have taken 67 shots across their last five matches compared to Libertad’s 52, and their 25 corner kicks to Libertad’s 13 shows just how dominant Macara have been in terms of territorial pressure.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Liga Pro 2026, Apertura |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja |
| 🗓️ Date: | 25.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 02:00 CEST |
Libertad vs Macara Prediction
The bookmakers price Macara as clear favourites at around 2.25-2.35, and the underlying data backs that up. Macara are the stronger side on paper, in the table, and historically in this fixture. Three wins from the last four head-to-head meetings, including a 3-0 win in the reverse fixture this very season, point firmly in one direction. We predict a Macara win as the primary bet, with the away side having the quality and motivation to claim all three points.
Macara average 71 fouls across their last five games compared to Libertad’s 56, which reflects a physically demanding style from Guillermo Sanguinetti’s side. Macara also carry 12 yellow cards in that span versus Libertad’s 5, meaning referee intervention could factor into the game’s flow. Libertad’s 2 red cards in five matches is a concern, as another dismissal against a team of Macara’s calibre would make holding a result nearly impossible. Macara’s pass accuracy and volume are significantly higher, suggesting they will control possession and dictate tempo, which suits the away win market well.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Macara to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Libertad have been in decent form over the last 30 days, picking up four wins from six matches with a 67% win rate. Their last five league outings show a team capable of beating mid-table opposition, with wins against Universidad Católica (2-1), Orense (3-0), Mushuc Runa (2-0), and Delfín (1-0). The most recent result, a 2-2 draw with Guayaquil City, showed some defensive fragility. Across those five games, Libertad scored 9 goals but conceded enough to register a negative goal difference overall this season. Two red cards in five matches is a disciplinary issue that could prove costly against sharper opposition.
Macara’s recent run is more mixed in results but strong in underlying numbers. Their last five games include wins over Barcelona SC (2-1) and Guayaquil City (2-1), a draw with Universidad Católica (1-1), a loss to Santos (1-2), and a goalless draw with Santos most recently. The Santos results are slightly concerning given Santos’ modest rating, but Macara’s overall 50% win rate over the last 30 days across eight matches reflects a side that rotates heavily and manages squad load. Their 67 shots and 48 interceptions in five games show both attacking intent and defensive discipline that Libertad will struggle to match.
🚨Check out our dedicated Libertad vs Macara stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Macara the Favourite
- Moneyline Libertad 3.10 | Macara 2.25
- Draw 3.15
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
Macara at 2.25 represents fair value given their head-to-head dominance, superior league position, and the quality gap between the squads. Libertad at 3.10 implies roughly a 32% chance of a home win, which feels generous given they have not beaten Macara in their last four meetings. The draw at 3.15 is tempting on paper, but Macara’s recent record against Libertad shows they have consistently found a way to win this fixture rather than settle. We lean toward Macara to win at odds around 2.25-2.35.
Possible Starting Lineups
Libertad Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: David Cabezas
- DF: Bryan Caicedo, Orlin Quinonez, Rodrigo Morinigo, Carlos Gruezo
- MF: Jostin Bravo, Edu Pineda, Sander Bueno
- FW: Antony Chere, D. Coronel, Elvis Patta
Libertad look set to line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape, with David Cabezas as the clear first-choice goalkeeper having featured in all four recent matches. The defensive unit of Caicedo, Quinonez, and Morinigo provides the most consistent back line available. Edu Pineda is the most productive midfielder with a goal and two yellow cards in four games, making him both a creative and disciplinary risk. D. Coronel leads the attacking line with a goal and assist across four appearances and is the player most likely to trouble Macara’s defence.
Macara Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Rodrigo Rodríguez
- DF: Jairo Jimenez, Marlon Medranda, Denilson Bolanos
- MF: Jose Cazares, Jean Estacio, Matías Miranda
Macara’s data pool is more limited in terms of confirmed starters, but Rodrigo Rodríguez is the confirmed goalkeeper with 10 saves across five matches. Denilson Bolanos has accumulated three yellow cards and leads the defensive unit in interceptions, making him a key but risky presence. Jose Cazares is the engine in midfield with 188 passes and 7 interceptions across five games, and Jean Estacio provides the creative link with consistent pass output and an assist. Macara will likely deploy their familiar 4-2-3-1 shape under Guillermo Sanguinetti.
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Macara. Source: Official X/Twitter. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Macara are the better team by every measurable metric in this fixture. They sit 9 points above Libertad in the Apertura table, have won three of the last four head-to-head meetings, and scored 6 goals to Libertad’s 1 across those four encounters. Their shot volume, passing accuracy, and interception numbers from the last five games all point to a side that controls matches rather than reacts to them. Libertad have shown they can beat lower-ranked opponents at home, but Macara are a different challenge entirely.
We predict a Macara win, with both teams to score offering additional value given Libertad’s ability to find the net at home even in difficult matches. The corner market also favours Macara heavily based on their 25 corners to Libertad’s 13 over the last five games. To be honest, backing Macara at 2.25 is the clearest call on this card.
