Sofia Quijada
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Libertad Asuncion host San Lorenzo at the Dr. Nicolás Leoz in Asunción, sitting second in the Clausura table with 12 points from five games. San Lorenzo arrive as the division’s bottom side, with just a single point from five matches and a goal difference of -7. These two sides met twice already in the Apertura this year, with Libertad winning 5-0 and 7-0. The bookmakers have seen enough: Libertad are priced as heavy favorites at roughly 67% implied probability.
Two players stand out heading into this fixture. Elvio de Jesús Vera Brítez has been one of Libertad’s most active attackers across the last five matches, contributing a goal, an assist, and a team-high 10 shots. On the other side, Alexis Doldán has logged the most minutes of any San Lorenzo outfield player in this run and leads the team with eight fouls conceded, a sign of how much pressure he faces in the defensive line.
The hot stat from this run of fixtures: Libertad scored 9 goals across their last five league matches, averaging 1.8 per game, while San Lorenzo have scored zero goals in their last five league outings before their cup result against 29 de Setiembre.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Paraguayan Primera Division 2026 Clausura |
| 🏟 Venue: | Dr. Nicolás Leoz, Asunción |
| 🗓️ Date: | 24.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 23:30 CEST |
Libertad Asuncion vs San Lorenzo Prediction
The case for a Libertad win is straightforward. They have won five of their last six matches, their attack is producing consistently, and San Lorenzo have yet to score in five Clausura games. Libertad’s 4-1-4-1 structure gives them strong midfield control, and their pass accuracy across the last five matches sits at a significantly higher level than San Lorenzo’s. The best value bet here is a Libertad win with over 2.5 goals, given their scoring output and San Lorenzo’s near-total inability to threaten at the other end.
Libertad average 6.6 free kicks per game in this recent run and commit fouls at a moderate rate, suggesting they play with discipline while still pressing aggressively. San Lorenzo commit slightly more fouls per game (7.0) despite having far less of the ball, which reflects a reactive, defensive shape that still gets bypassed regularly. With Libertad’s pass accuracy around 85% compared to San Lorenzo’s 78%, the home side will dominate possession and create the majority of chances. San Lorenzo’s 4-4-2 may aim to stay compact, but their defensive record makes clean sheets nearly impossible against this Libertad side.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Libertad Asuncion to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Libertad Asuncion have been in strong form over the past month, winning five of their last six matches. Their most recent outing was a 4-3 win over Tacuary, a match that showed both their attacking firepower and some defensive vulnerability. Before that, they beat Sportivo Luqueno 2-1 and Sportivo Trinidense 2-1, with their only blip being a 1-2 loss to Guarani. Across the last five matches, they have racked up 69 shots and 21 corners, numbers that reflect a side that attacks with volume and variety. The 4-1-4-1 gives them a compact midfield block that transitions quickly into attack.
San Lorenzo’s recent run tells a different story. They lost to Cerro Porteno 0-1 in their most recent match, and their last five Clausura fixtures ended in four defeats and a draw, with a combined score of 0-9 against them. Their 5-3 cup win over 29 de Setiembre provides minimal comfort given the level of that opponent. They have managed just 32 shots across their last five games and earned only 14 corners, numbers that reflect a team struggling to create anything meaningful going forward. With zero goals in the Clausura and a squad that has committed 35 fouls while picking up four yellow cards and a red, their discipline under pressure is also questionable.
🚨Check out our dedicated Libertad Asuncion vs San Lorenzo stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Libertad Asuncion the favourite
- Moneyline Libertad Asuncion 1.37 | San Lorenzo 7.84
- Draw 4.56
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
Pinnacle’s 1.37 on Libertad is at the generous end of the market, and given the head-to-head demolitions this year (12-0 across two meetings) and San Lorenzo’s complete inability to score in the Clausura, the home win at those odds carries genuine value. The draw at 4.56 and San Lorenzo at 7.84 reflect the true gap between these sides. We predict the Libertad win to be among the safest bets on the card that night.
Possible Starting Lineups
Libertad Asuncion possible starting eleven
- GK: Rodrigo Morinigo
- DF: Robert Rojas, Alan Benítez, Nestor Gimenez, Gilberto Flores
- MF: Agustín Manzur, Alvaro Campuzado, Marcelo Fernández, Federico Carrizo
- MF: Christian Iván Martínez Giménez
- FW: Elvio de Jesús Vera Brítez
Rodrigo Morinigo starts in goal as the clear first choice with four appearances. The back four picks itself around Robert Rojas, Alan Benítez, and Nestor Gimenez, all of whom have been consistent starters. Gilberto Flores rounds out the defensive line. In midfield, Agustín Manzur and Alvaro Campuzado provide the engine, with Marcelo Fernández and Federico Carrizo offering width and creativity. Elvio de Jesús Vera Brítez leads the line in the 4-1-4-1 and is the player to watch, carrying the most shots and direct threat of anyone in this squad.
San Lorenzo possible starting eleven
- GK: Wilson Quiñónez
- DF: Luis Cáceres, Alexis Doldán, Iván Torres, Maximiliano Antonio Garcia Soley
- MF: Bruno Pinatares Prieto, Héctor Villamayor, Hugo González, Teodoro Paredes
- FW: Alex Junior Álvarez Rojas, J. Barrios
Wilson Quiñónez has started four of the last five matches and is the established number one. The back four is built around Alexis Doldán and Luis Cáceres, who have each played all four of San Lorenzo’s recent matches. Iván Torres and Maximiliano Garcia Soley complete the defensive unit. Bruno Pinatares Prieto anchors the midfield alongside Héctor Villamayor and Hugo González. Alex Junior Álvarez Rojas and J. Barrios lead the attack in the 4-4-2, though both have struggled to register any goals. Sergio Orteman will likely set up to be compact and limit damage rather than chase the game.
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San Lorenzo. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
The numbers point firmly in one direction. Libertad Asuncion have outscored opponents 12-0 in two meetings with San Lorenzo this year, they are second in the Clausura table, and they have won five of their last six matches. San Lorenzo sit bottom with one point, have scored zero Clausura goals, and have conceded 8 in five games. Libertad’s superior passing, shot volume, and corner output all reinforce the same conclusion. We predict a comfortable Libertad win with multiple goals, and the “Libertad to win both halves” market stands out as the best value given how these sides have matched up in 2026.
