Levadiakos vs AEL Larisa Prediction: 13.12.2025 Super League 1 Preview

Set for kickoff at the Levadia Municipal Stadium, this Super League 1 tie puts resurgent Levadiakos against struggling AEL Larisa. Both teams rely on a 4-2-3-1 formation, but while Levadiakos are riding a strong home form and eyeing a spot among the top four, AEL Larisa are fighting to break a troubling winless streak. Eyes will surely be on Levadiakos’ dynamic forward Alen Ožbolt, who has been finding the net with impressive regularity, while visiting striker Giannis Pasas poses the biggest threat for Larisa, having nabbed two goals in his last five. Amid contrasting momentum, this clash gives Levadiakos a prime opportunity to edge closer to Greece’s elite.

Hot stat: Levadiakos have scored eight goals in their last five matches, twice as many as AEL Larisa over the same period, underscoring their clear attacking superiority.

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Levadiakos vs AEL Larisa prediction

Given Levadiakos’s robust home record, attacking consistency—eight goals in their last five—and their 62% implied win probability, the best value prediction is a home win. Backing Levadiakos -1 Asian Handicap offers an enticing blend of value and safety, given Larisa’s ongoing issues at both ends and Levadiakos’s aggression in the final third.

Tactically, both teams deploy a 4-2-3-1, but Levadiakos leverage superior ball retention (pass accuracy at 81%) and a more focused attack. Their disciplined defense has allowed only five yellow cards in five matches. In contrast, Larisa often resort to physical play—55 fouls and 15 yellow cards—partly compensating for lapses in possession and their leaky back line. This plays right into Levadiakos’s tempo-based approach and probing attack, especially down the wings via Sebastián Palacios and Benjamin Verbič.

Team Analysis

Levadiakos: Recent Games
Levadiakos enter this encounter with momentum. In their last match, they drew 1-1 versus Asteras Tripolis—a game that reflected their efficiency in front of goal and stability in the back four, despite conceding late on. Their recent five outings include wins over Marko (3-1), Panserraikos (5-2), and Volos (2-1); only PAOK, one of the league favorites, inflicted a loss (2-3) in a closely fought contest. That form is backed by a strong collective attacking effort (45 total shots in last five), relatively clean disciplinary record, and excellent ball retention. They are proving consistent at home, both in performance and results.

AEL Larisa: Recent Games
AEL Larisa are in the throes of a difficult campaign—winless in their last five and picking up just one point. Their 2-2 draw with Panathinaikos was a rare bright spot, showing offensive spark but also highlighting defensive fragility, as they conceded late. They’ve lost to Atromitos (0-1), Aris Thessaloniki (1-2), OFI Crete (1-2), and Panaitolikos (0-3), regularly conceding early and struggling to impose their game. With 15 yellow cards and a red in just five matches, they continue to lack discipline and often surrender control through poor ball retention and too many fouls. Their current 13th place reflects the burden of these ongoing concerns.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Levadiakos vs AEL Larisa stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Levadiakos the favourite

• Moneyline Levadiakos 1.39 | AEL Larisa 7.45
• Draw 4.42
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.90 | Under 2.5 1.85
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.00 | No 1.75

With bookmakers granting Levadiakos around a 62 percent implied chance—and most offering low odds on the home win—punters recognize their strong form and home advantage. The high odds for AEL Larisa reflect their poor form and attacking troubles. The over/under is relatively balanced, hinting expectations of two or three goals, while the odds favor at least one clean sheet, which aligns with Larisa’s scoring woes. Overall, value and probability converge around Levadiakos taking three points in style.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Levadiakos possible starting eleven

Levadiakos are likely to line up in their favored 4-2-3-1, with Lodygin offering reliability in goal and a back four that blends aggression and technical skill. Magnússon’s passing from deep and Tsapras’ overlaps are key. In midfield, Cokaj and Tshibola provide industry and control, while Balzi links up play. Palacios and Verbič are the creative wingers, supporting Ožbolt, whose finishing is Levadiakos’s main offensive weapon. Watch for Verbič’s movement and Palacios’s delivery to play decisive roles.

AEL Larisa possible starting eleven

AEL Larisa are expected to mirror the 4-2-3-1, but disruption across their back line is likely given their recent disciplinary woes. Melissas in goal will need to be on alert. Ferigra and Chakla anchor a defense under pressure, while Andrada and Atanasov aim to reclaim possession quickly. Chatzistravos will need to connect midfield and attack, providing service for Pasas and Garate—Larisa’s two best hopes to end their scoring drought. Pérez is another creative threat, particularly if given time on the ball. This lineup is designed for resilience, but questions persist over its ability to withstand Levadiakos’s aggressive press.

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My take on the Match

All signs point to Levadiakos consolidating their place in the top four with a comfortable win here. The hosts combine home advantage, creativity in attack, and disciplined defense—precisely the blend that AEL Larisa currently lack. With players like Ožbolt and Verbič in form, and Palacios providing width, I expect Levadiakos to break through early and control possession. AEL Larisa’s lack of momentum and ongoing disciplinary issues render their upset chances slim. My pick: Levadiakos to win, with a probable two-goal margin and another clean sheet at home.

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