Liam Duckstein
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Leeds welcome Crystal Palace to Elland Road sitting fourth in the early Premier League table, still unbeaten after four rounds. Palace arrive in rather worse shape, stuck in sixteenth after three defeats from four. The two sides met twice last season and Leeds won the more recent meeting 4-1, a scoreline that still lingers in the memory of Palace fans heading into this one.
Perhaps the most interesting wrinkle here is how differently these clubs have started the campaign. Leeds have leaned on a settled back three under Daniel Farke, while Pierre Sage’s Palace side has shipped eleven goals in just four league games, a defensive record that ranks among the league’s worst so far.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been Leeds’ most productive weapon, scoring four goals from limited minutes and giving Farke a genuine focal point up front. On the other side, Jörgen Strand Larsen has matched that tally for Palace, netting four times in his last five outings and doing so on a lower shot count than most rivals, a sign of real efficiency in front of goal.
Hot stat worth flagging: Calvert-Lewin has scored four goals from only 272 minutes played across Leeds’ last five matches, working out to roughly a goal every 68 minutes, arguably the most clinical return of any forward involved in this fixture.
| 🏆 Tournament: | English Premier League 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Elland Road, Leeds |
| 🗓️ Date: | 20.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:00 CEST |
Leeds vs Crystal Palace prediction
We predict a Leeds win here, and the value sits with backing the hosts alongside Over 2.5 goals rather than a straight moneyline bet at short odds. Leeds have won three of their last five matches while scoring eleven goals in that span, and Palace’s defense has looked shaky enough away from home to concede at Elland Road regardless of the result.
Leeds pass the ball with more purpose, averaging close to 80 percent accuracy in recent games, and their 3-4-2-1 shape gives Calvert-Lewin support from two attacking midfielders rather than isolating him. Palace commit fewer fouls and pick up fewer cards than Leeds, but their back four has interceptions to spare without translating that into clean sheets, which tells us their issue is more about game management than raw defensive work rate.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Leeds to win & Over 3.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Leeds head into this one on the back of a 4-1 thrashing of Newcastle, a result that also stretched their unbeaten run further. Before that they drew 1-1 with Brighton and 1-1 with Brentford, results that showed some fragility against organized sides, but the Newcastle scoreline suggests the attack has found real rhythm again after the 3-6 defeat to Chelsea two games prior. In our preview of Leeds vs Newcastle we called for the visitors to avoid defeat on the double chance market, and the 4-1 result went against us as Leeds ran out comprehensive winners.
Crystal Palace, meanwhile, beat Lech Poznan 4-0 in their most recent outing, snapping a run of results that had looked shaky against Ipswich (a 2-3 loss) and Manchester City (1-4). The Lech win papers over some cracks though, since Poznan sit far below Palace’s level, and the three defeats from their last five Premier League fixtures paint a more honest picture of where this squad currently stands. In our preview of Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan we called for a narrow home win, and the 4-0 result technically delivered it, even if the scoreline turned out far more one-sided than we expected.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Leeds | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Leeds vs Crystal Palace stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Leeds the favourite
- Moneyline Leeds 1.69 | Crystal Palace 4.75
- Draw 3.90
Bookmakers give Leeds a clear edge at close to 55 percent implied probability, and the price gap between home and away odds tells its own story about how these two clubs are viewed right now. We think the market has it right in terms of direction, though the draw at just under 4.00 offers little value given how open Palace tend to play away from home. Backing Leeds combined with a goals market feels like the smarter route than a straight single on the moneyline.
Possible Starting Lineups
Leeds possible starting eleven
- GK: James Trafford
- DF: Tarik Muharemovic, Nico Elvedi, Jaka Bijol
- MF: Jayden Bogle, James Justin, Ethan Ampadu, Anton Stach
- FW: Brenden Aaronson, Noah Okafor, Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Farke’s 3-4-2-1 relies on Bogle and Justin pushing high as wing-backs while Ampadu and Stach shield the back three. Calvert-Lewin leads the line and remains the player to watch given his scoring rate, with Aaronson and Okafor rotating behind him to create overloads.
Crystal Palace possible starting eleven
- GK: Walter Benítez
- DF: Tyrick Mitchell, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Axel Disasi, Oscar Mingueza
- MF: Adam Wharton, Quinten Timber, Daichi Kamada, Yeremy Pino, Anan Khalaili
- FW: Jörgen Strand Larsen
Sage’s 4-2-3-1 gives Wharton and Timber the defensive screening job while Kamada, Pino and Khalaili look to feed Strand Larsen, easily Palace’s most reliable finisher this season. Mitchell’s forward runs from left-back add another attacking outlet worth tracking.
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Crystal Palace. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Leeds go into this as deserved favourites on current form, unbeaten through four league games with an attack that has scored eleven goals in their last five outings across all competitions. Palace bring their own firepower through Strand Larsen, but a defense conceding regularly on the road makes a clean sheet for the visitors unlikely. Our punters team backs a Leeds win paired with goals at both ends, expecting Elland Road to see a lively, high-scoring afternoon that ultimately swings the home side’s way.
