LEC Spring 2022 Playoffs Preview

It’s business time in the LEC. The league’s somewhat meme-y tagline, “every game counts” really rings true now, with a weekend of knockout games ahead of us.

G2 vs Vitality

First up, tonight, G2 take on Vitality in the lower bracket. Both teams come into this game off less than stellar showings. Vitality squeaked past Excel in their opening game last weekend, though one could argue that coming back from 2-1 down is still an impressive feat. G2, meanwhile, were dominated more by Fnatic than a 3-1 scoreline might suggest.

To make my life more difficult, the teams tied 1-1 in the regular split. There has to be a winner in this best-of-five series, though, and, to trot out a cliché, this one could go either way.

I haven’t seen anything from either team that makes me think they’re undeniable favourites for this game. G2 had a better overall record in the regular season, but that scarcely matters when it comes to play-offs, especially when the gap was only two wins. I went with G2 on our coverage page, and so did most users, but that could easily just be brand recognition.

Of course, there’s a lot of intangible factors affecting this game – so many narrative threads that it’s hard to know where to begin. Perkz vs Caps, Fading Dynasty vs So-caled Super Team, and so on. The point being, while teams are always up for play-off matches, the players in this play-off match are going to be extra ready for this one. Expect fireworks.

Fnatic vs Rogue

Top in the regular split with 14 wins takes on second with 13 wins. Two teams who dominated their opening play-off matches 3-1 go head-to-head in tomorrow’s upper bracket final. Just like our previous match, these teams shared the spoils in their regular season matches, making this one another nightmare to predict, going by the numbers.

Indeed, this is a mirror of tonight’s game in many ways. Fnatic, like G2, are the legendary old guard, Rogue, like Vitality, the relatively new upstart organisation still looking to prove itself.

Last time the two teams met, it was all about a perfect game from Razork setting up his mid laner and his ADC for deathless games of their own. Never a team to lie down and die quietly, Rogue gave Fnatic kill after kill, leading to a one-sided looking 30 minute defeat. But that doesn’t really help us, because the previous game was equally lopsided in Rogue’s favour – no deaths for Larssen or Comp, weirdly.

This could be one of those series that ends with a close-looking 3-2 scoreline, but with five completely one-sided individual games. If that’s the case, it could be that side selection is more important than ever. Blue side currently has a 77% win rate in LEC play-offs and had almost 56% in the regular season. Could it really be as simple as Rogue picking blue in three out of five games? With the teams so equally matched, honestly, yes; it could be that simple. Notably, Rogue’s win in the split was on blue side. Fnatic’s? Yep, you guessed it. Blue side.

Misfits vs TBD

Oh, boy. If the previous two matches were difficult to predict, how does one go about predicting a game where only one participant is known?

Well, frankly, Misfits is the weakest team remaining in play-offs, and I’d expect them to lose a best-of-five to either of their prospective opponents. They did manage to go 1-1 in the regular season against G2, but dropped both games to Vitality. Even their win against G2 was, uh, interesting. Did G2 throw? Did Misfits make an incredible comeback? As is so often the case, it was a bit of both. Either way, the odds of such an absurd game repeating itself are slim.

Vetheo’s Akali was immense in that game, accounting for over half of his team’s kills. G2 and Vitality will be aware of his importance, though, and it’s unlikely that he will be allowed to play Akali without some kind of counter-strategy in place. If either team can keep Vetheo quiet, I just don’t see another way Misfits can win. Hirit is outmatched by both Alphari and BrokenBlade, Shlatan, while decent, is just not on the same level as Jankos or Selfmade. The bottom lane for Misfits is where they might get some joy, but I can’t see it being enough to take three games of either Vitality or G2.

Ironically, then, this is the easiest match to predict of the three. Misfits should lose, regardless of their opposition.