Sofia Quijada
LDU Quito welcome Leones del Norte to the Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in a Liga Pro Apertura clash that carries real weight for both sides. Sitting sixth on 28 points, LDU need a win to keep pace with the top five, while Leones del Norte, ninth on 24 points, arrive in better recent form than the hosts. The most notable detail: Leones del Norte have won two of their last three matches, and their striker Juan Anangonó has scored three goals across his last three appearances. For LDU, winger Rodney Redes is the main creative outlet, leading the team with 14 shots and one goal in the last five matches. LDU’s pass accuracy across the last five games sits at a solid 83%, suggesting they control possession well, but their recent run of one win in six tells a different story about converting that control into results.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Liga Pro 2026, Apertura, Ecuador |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado, Quito |
| 🗓️ Date: | 18.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 23:30 CEST |
LDU Quito vs Leones del Norte Prediction
LDU Quito carry the home advantage and a 65% bookmaker probability, but their recent form is a concern. One win in six, with three draws and two losses, is not the profile of a team playing with confidence. Leones del Norte, to be honest, look more dangerous right now: two wins and a draw in their last three games, and they beat Universidad Católica 1-0 just days ago. The earlier head-to-head this season ended 2-0 to LDU at home, which does matter, but Leones del Norte are a different side in terms of momentum.
LDU average a low shot-on-target conversion in recent matches, with just three goals across five games and 66 total shots, meaning they create volume but lack efficiency. Leones del Norte have committed 49 fouls in five matches, fewer than LDU’s 60, and their more direct 5-3-2 setup limits space and transitions quickly. LDU’s 4-2-3-1 gives them width and possession, but against a compact block they may struggle to find the breakthrough. We predict LDU Quito to win, but the margin will be tight and both teams have the attacking tools to contribute to the scoreline.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | LDU Quito to Win & Under 3.5 Goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
LDU Quito’s last five matches paint a picture of inconsistency. They beat Orense 3-0 but then failed to score in back-to-back games against Macara (0-1) and Universidad Católica (0-1), with a 1-1 draw against Independiente Juniors and a 0-0 against Libertad sandwiched in between. Their most recent match, a 0-1 home loss to Universidad Católica, confirmed a worrying pattern: LDU struggle to convert possession into goals against organized opposition. Michael Estrada leads the forward line but has zero goals across four recent appearances, which is a significant problem for a side that relies on him to finish.
Leones del Norte arrive in much better shape. Their last three results read: 1-0 vs Universidad Católica, 3-1 vs Libertad, and 1-1 vs Deportivo Cuenca. The 3-1 win over Libertad was particularly convincing, and the victory over Universidad Católica away from home showed they can beat quality sides. Juan Anangonó has been the difference-maker with three goals in three games, and midfielder Emiliano Griffa adds creativity with seven shots and one goal across the same stretch. Their 5-3-2 shape is defensively sound but also allows Anangonó and the second striker to press quickly on the counter.
🚨Check out our dedicated LDU Quito vs Leones del Norte stats page for more info.
Leones del Norte. Source: Official Website
Pre-game odds and win probability: LDU Quito the favourite
- Moneyline LDU Quito 1.41 | Leones del Norte 7.46
- Draw 4.55
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The odds strongly favour LDU Quito at home, with Pinnacle pricing them at 1.41, which reflects their status and home record rather than their current form. The draw at 4.55 has some value given how LDU have been performing, drawing three of their last six. Leones del Norte at 7.46 looks steep even accounting for the away context, but their form justifies at least a closer look at BTTS given Anangonó’s scoring run and LDU’s defensive vulnerability.
Possible Starting Lineups
LDU Quito possible starting eleven
- GK: Alexander Domínguez
- DF: Ricardo Ade, Gian Franco Allala, Leonel Quiñónez, Josué Cuero Mercado
- MF: Jesús Pretell, Fernando Cornejo, Cristian Tobar, Janner Corozo
- FW: Rodney Redes, Deyverson
Alexander Domínguez starts in goal with four appearances across the last five matches. The back four picks itself, with Gian Franco Allala and Leonel Quiñónez as the most consistent defenders. Jesús Pretell anchors the midfield with 11 fouls and four interceptions, making him the engine of the press. Rodney Redes is the key attacking threat with 14 shots and the team’s only goal, deployed as a wide forward in the 4-2-3-1. Deyverson leads the line despite a dry scoring run, bringing five offsides and physical presence. Luis Segovia offers a goal threat from midfield with one assist, and Fernando Cornejo adds defensive cover on the left.
Leones del Norte possible starting eleven
- GK: Moisés Ramírez
- DF: Jordan Morán, Alexis Monserrat, Maiky de la Cruz, Miguel Caicedo, Frixon Vargas
- MF: Martín Caramuto, Emiliano Griffa, Cristhian Solano
- FW: Juan Anangonó, Nestor Caicedo Mina
Moisés Ramírez starts in goal with seven saves across three matches, making him one of the busiest keepers in recent rounds. The 5-3-2 shape uses five defenders to clog the central channels, with Maiky de la Cruz and Jordan Morán as the most active fullbacks in terms of passing. Martín Caramuto drives from midfield with 12 shots across three games, the most of any Leones player, while Emiliano Griffa contributes one goal and consistent creativity. Juan Anangonó is the standout name, three goals in three games, and he will be the primary focal point in attack.
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LDU Quito. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
LDU Quito’s home record and the 2-0 win over Leones del Norte earlier this season give them the edge, but the context has shifted. LDU have managed one win in their last six and have failed to score in three of those games. Leones del Norte arrive with two wins in three, a clinical striker in Anangonó, and a defensive structure that can absorb pressure. We predict LDU Quito to win narrowly, perhaps 1-0 or 2-1, with both teams creating enough chances for BTTS to land. The total goals market leans toward under 2.5, given LDU’s recent scoring drought, but Anangonó’s form makes a clean sheet for either side unlikely. The safest single bet remains LDU Quito to win, and the best value combination is LDU win with BTTS yes.
