Liam Duckstein
As Serie A’s regular season nears its conclusion, Lazio welcomes Pisa to Stadio Olimpico for a match with contrasting stakes. Lazio stands firm in mid-table with a balanced campaign, while Pisa fights to avoid finishing rock-bottom. The gulf in form is stark. Lazio’s recent performances include battling draws against Udinese and tough losses to giants like Inter and Roma. Pisa, by contrast, carries a lengthy losing streak and has failed to win in their last five matches.
Pedro remains a creative spark for Lazio, combining experience with incisive play. For Pisa, Mehdi Léris stands out as one of the few bright spots, netting their only recent goal and offering some attacking threat.
Hot stat: Pisa have scored just once in their last five league matches while conceding 12 times, underlining their vulnerability at both ends.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2025/26 Regular Season (Italy) |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadio Olimpico, Rome |
| 🗓️ Date: | 23.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Lazio vs Pisa prediction
We predict a convincing Lazio victory. Recent form, head-to-heads, and squad quality all point to a one-sided contest. Lazio have lost only one of their last five home fixtures, while Pisa have suffered five straight defeats, conceding three or more goals on three occasions. The home side’s attack, led by Pedro and supported by Tijjani Noslin, looks likely to exploit Pisa’s defensive frailties.
Lazio’s style under Maurizio Sarri features possession-based build-up and measured pressing, reflected in their high pass accuracy (88%) and lower foul count. Pisa, in contrast, play reactively, committing more fouls and struggling to control matches. They average fewer passes and see less of the ball, which will likely result in long spells under pressure.
Discipline could also be a factor: both teams have accumulated two red cards in their last five matches, but Pisa’s frequent yellow cards and higher foul count may hand Lazio opportunities from set pieces.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Lazio to win with a -1.5 handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Lazio’s most recent outing ended in a frustrating 0-2 defeat to Roma, a result that followed a similar loss to Inter. Before that, they edged past Cremonese with a 2-1 win and produced a 3-3 draw against Udinese. The side’s attacking output has fluctuated, but defensive stability remains an issue, as evidenced by nine goals conceded in their last five. Pedro’s creativity and Noslin’s energy continue to drive the team’s forward movement.
Pisa’s run has been dismal. Their latest match saw them swept aside 0-3 by Napoli, and they suffered three-goal losses to both Cremonese and Lecce prior to that. Their only recent goal came in a 1-2 home defeat to Lecce, where Léris found the net. In terms of defensive discipline, Pisa have allowed opponents an average of nearly seven shots on target per match in their last five. The team’s midfield has struggled to provide any real shield to a vulnerable back line.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Lazio | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 44 | 33 |
| Corner kicks | 16 | 12 |
| Total fouls | 66 | 59 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 88 | 78 |
| Interceptions | 29 | 43 |
| Offsides | 8 | 11 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Lazio vs Pisa stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Lazio the favourite
- Moneyline Lazio 1.19–1.60 | Pisa 5.50–6.13
- Draw 4.00–4.43
- Over/Under Over 2.5 1.70 | Under 2.5 2.00
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.20 | No 1.60
The bookmakers clearly back Lazio to win, with odds as low as 1.19 at some outlets. Pisa’s price reflects their dire form and league position. The value on over 2.5 goals makes sense given both teams’ defensive records, particularly Pisa’s. The “both teams to score: no” market is favored, given Pisa’s limp attack. Our team prefers the -1.5 handicap for Lazio, as their superior squad and home advantage make a two-goal win probable.
Possible Starting Lineups
Lazio possible starting eleven
- GK: Edoardo Motta
- DF: Adam Marušić, Alessio Romagnoli, Patric, Luca Pellegrini
- MF: Nicolò Rovella, Toma Bašić, Kenneth Taylor
- FW: Pedro, Tijjani Noslin, Gustav Isaksen
We picked Motta in goal based on his consistent starts. Romagnoli and Patric form the defensive core, with Pellegrini and Marušić adding full-back support. Rovella’s passing, Bašić’s work rate, and Taylor’s movement should control the midfield. Pedro, Noslin, and Isaksen form a fluid attacking trio, matching Sarri’s recent 4-3-3 setup. Pedro’s experience and Noslin’s goal involvement make them the players to watch.
Pisa possible starting eleven
- GK: Adrian Šemper
- DF: Antonio Caracciolo, Simone Canestrelli, Samuele Angori
- MF: Mehdi Léris, Idrissa Toure, Michel Aebischer, Isak Vural, Ebenezer Akinsanmiro
- FW: Stefano Moreo, Filip Stojiljković
Šemper should retain his spot between the posts. Caracciolo and Canestrelli are mainstays in defense, joined by Angori. The midfield five is packed to provide cover and support, with Léris offering the most threat going forward. Up top, Moreo and Stojiljković are selected based on minutes played. Pisa are likely to stick to their 3-5-2, aiming to congest the midfield but will struggle for attacking fluency.
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Pisa. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Lazio will dominate this fixture. Pisa’s defensive issues and lack of attacking spark leave them vulnerable to a motivated Lazio, who will look to end their home campaign on a high. Expect Sarri’s side to dictate possession, create chances, and exploit Pisa’s set-piece weaknesses. Our team strongly recommends a bet on Lazio with a -1.5 handicap and for the match to finish with over 2.5 goals.
