Liam Duckstein
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Lazio sit third in Serie A after a near-perfect start, and Gennaro Gattuso’s side gets a home date with a Monza team that has won just once in its last five outings. The Biancocelesti have not lost in five matches heading into this weekend, while Monza arrives in Rome with the division’s fourth-worst defensive record. There is an interesting wrinkle though: Lazio’s own defense has looked shaky in recent weeks too, conceding six goals across the last two fixtures alone. That combination of attacking intent and defensive gaps on both sides shapes everything we discuss below.
Keep an eye on Mattia Zaccagni, who already has a goal and an assist from his last two outings and remains the heartbeat of Lazio’s left side. Tijjani Noslin is the other man to watch, having scored twice in his last two appearances and looking sharp in behind defenses. For Monza, Gustavo Varela has quietly produced two goals in his last two games and offers their clearest route to goal threat.
Hot stat: Monza have fired 34 shots across their last five matches compared to Lazio’s 20, yet Lazio hold a 4-1 edge in their last two head-to-head meetings combined. Volume clearly does not equal results for the Brianzoli this season.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadio Olimpico, Rome |
| 🗓️ Date: | 11.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:00 CEST |
Lazio vs Monza prediction
We predict a comfortable Lazio win here, and the value sits with backing the hosts on the Asian handicap rather than simply the straight moneyline. Lazio have won four of five league games this season and sit level on points with Inter, while Monza have won only once in five and carry the joint-worst defensive record of any side above the relegation zone. Perhaps the most telling number is goal difference: Lazio sit at plus five, Monza at minus four.
Style-wise this should be a mismatch in control. Lazio have committed only 23 fouls and picked up just two yellow cards across their last five matches, a sign of a disciplined side that rarely needs to break up play through fouling. Monza, by contrast, have racked up 26 fouls and four bookings in the same stretch, and their 34 shots against Lazio’s 20 suggest a team that creates chances through volume rather than control. Expect Lazio to dominate possession and dictate tempo, with Monza relying on transitions and set pieces, where their 13 corners in five matches hint at a side still searching for craft in open play.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Lazio to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Lazio have gone unbeaten in five, winning three and drawing two, and their underlying form backs up the table position. The most recent result was a wild 3-3 draw, a game where the Romans led twice but could not hold on defensively, a pattern that has crept into their last couple of outings. Before that they beat Arezzo 2-0 and Venezia 2-0 comfortably, suggesting the attack is firing even when the back line wobbles.
Monza have managed just one win in their last five, with two draws and two losses painting a picture of a team short on consistency. Their most recent match ended 2-2, another occasion where they let a lead slip, continuing a worrying trend of failing to see out matches. The 2-3 defeat to Cremonese before that and a 2-3 loss to Lecce further back show a defense that keeps shipping goals even when the attack does its job.
🚨Check out our dedicated Lazio vs Monza stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Lazio the favourite
- Moneyline Lazio 1.55 | Monza 5.80
- Draw 3.98
The market leaves no doubt about who should win this one, with Lazio priced well below evens across nearly every book we track. A draw sits around 4.00 and Monza’s away win hovers near 5.80 to 6.25 depending on the operator, numbers that reflect the gap in form and squad quality rather than anything close to a coin flip. To be honest, we think the market has this right, and anything close to Lazio at these odds represents fair value given their home record and Monza’s defensive issues this season.
Possible Starting Lineups
Lazio possible starting eleven
- GK: Christos Mandas
- DF: Manuel Lazzari, Oliver Provstgaard, Romano Floriani Mussolini, Nuno Tavares
- MF: Danilo Cataldi, Reda Belahyane, Kenneth Taylor
- FW: Mattia Zaccagni, Tijjani Noslin, Matteo Cancellieri
Gattuso should stick with the 4-3-3 that has powered Lazio to third place. Mandas remains a reliable presence between the posts, while Provstgaard and Tavares anchor a back four that needs to tighten up after recent defensive slips. Zaccagni and Noslin lead the line in form, and watch for Belahyane breaking up play through the middle.
Monza possible starting eleven
- GK: Noel Tornqvist
- DF: Andrea Carboni, Samuele Birindelli, Lorenzo Lucchesi, Eddy Kouadio
- MF: Andrea Colpani, Ebenezer Akinsanmiro, Michael Folorunsho
- FW: Gustavo Varela, Patrick Cutrone, Jay Robinson
Ivan Juric also leans on a 4-3-3 and Tornqvist’s recent save count suggests he edges the goalkeeping battle for now. Varela is the man in form up front with two goals from his last two outings, and Cutrone’s movement off the shoulder of the last defender gives Monza their best outlet on the break.
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Monza. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Our punters team sees Lazio handling this one without much drama. The home side’s attack has scored 11 goals across its last five matches, more than enough to break down a Monza defense that has conceded 12 goals in six league games so far. We predict a Lazio win, likely by two clear goals, with both teams finding the net given how often Monza have scored even in losses this season. The corners market also leans toward the over given Monza’s tendency to generate set pieces of this result from open-play pressure rather than control.
