Lazio vs Como Prediction: 19.01.2026 Serie A Preview

The coming fixture between Lazio and Como at the historic Stadio Olimpico promises a compelling encounter between two sides marking very different, but evenly-poised, returns this campaign. Both managers bring fascinating storylines: Maurizio Sarri’s tactical dogma faces off against Cesc Fàbregas’s rapidly-evolving Como, themselves turning into one of Serie A’s surprise packages. Remarkably, the bookmakers are split almost down the middle—an unusual situation that hints at the genuine uncertainty around this match’s trajectory.

Eyes will be on Lazio’s experienced winger Pedro, who remains one of their most creative sparks in an attack that’s craved invention lately, and Como’s frontman Anastasios Douvikas, who has found the net three times in his last five outings, spearheading Como’s new-found attacking bite. Behind them, midfield maestros Maximo Perrone for Como and Danilo Cataldi for Lazio could dictate much of the midfield battle, each boasting vital stats in passing and ball recovery.

One “hot stat” leaps out: Como have scored a commanding nine goals in their last five matches—more than double Lazio’s tally over the same period. That attacking form is a marker of their strength away from home, and puts pressure on Lazio’s back line to hold firm against dynamic movement.

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Lazio vs Como prediction

The value in this contest lies in predicting both sides to get on the scoresheet. Como arrive in considerably sharper attacking form, evidenced by not only their recent glut of goals but also their high number of total shots—a whopping 72 in the last five games, compared to Lazio’s 55. Lazio, however, have the Stadio Olimpico’s home edge and are notoriously difficult to break down in front of their home crowd, especially with Sarri’s structured back line. But they have kept only one clean sheet in their last five and have struggled for offensive fluency (four goals in five). Given both sides’ impressive ball circulation (Como: 2377 passes at 87.47 percent accuracy; Lazio: 2134 at 86.4 percent) and the presence of creative midfielders on each team, this sets up for an engaging, open affair.

Discipline may play a role: Como have conceded 70 fouls (14 per match) and picked up 11 yellows in their last five, while Lazio have been slightly tidier with 55 fouls and 14 yellows. Como’s tendency towards aggressive pressing could backfire by affording Lazio set-piece opportunities—especially considering Como’s struggles in defending free kicks. Expect a tense, competitive clash, with the fresh legs and creativity of Como tilting the scales slightly, but Lazio’s experience and home support keeping them in the match.

Team Analysis

Lazio’s Recent Matches: Lazio have found wins hard to come by recently, recording only a single victory in their last five games. The 1-0 win over Verona could have been the turning point, but it was immediately followed by a goalless home draw against Cremonese and a combative 1-1 versus Udinese. Their best showing was holding Fiorentina to a 2-2 draw—proving they can go toe-to-toe with strong opposition—but weaknesses remain evident in front of goal, as their two-goal output against Fiorentina stands as an outlier in an otherwise barren spell.

Como’s Recent Matches: Como, by contrast, arrive in confident mood. Apart from a humbling by Milan (1-3), they’ve bagged three wins in five—including dominant displays away at Lecce (3-0) and Pisa (3-0)—and a professional 1-0 win over Udinese. Their draw against Bologna stands as a testament to their growing resilience under Fàbregas. Como’s attacking variety is a real threat, attacking from wide and centrally, and their directness is matched by impressive off-the-ball movement that has unsettled higher-ranked opponents.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Lazio vs Como stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Lazio the favourite

• Moneyline Lazio 2.85 | Como 2.90
• Draw 2.90
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.03 | Under 2.5 1.78
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.88 | No 1.88

This is as finely balanced a fixture as Serie A offers—odds so close you’d be forgiven for thinking this was a coin toss. Lazio nudge into slight favouritism courtesy of their home credentials and bigger-club stature, but Como’s away record, attacking numbers, and tactical growth under Fàbregas are enough to keep punters honest. The bookmakers are unimpressed by draws and goals markets—indicating their expectation for a fairly open encounter, and not a cagey stalemate.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Lazio possible starting eleven

Sarri is likely to stick to his trusted 4-3-3—Romagnoli and Gila anchor the defence, while Cataldi controls the midfield tempo with Vecino’s dynamism alongside. Pedro’s experience and creativity on the left, with Isaksen’s energy wide right and Cancellieri through the middle, provides a balance of guile and pace. Lazzari may be asked to drift between midfield and flank, and Pellegrini’s marauding runs could offer width. Keep a close watch on Pedro—the game-changer on his day.

Como possible starting eleven

Fàbregas should deploy his effective 3-5-2, with Kempf marshalling defence and Da Cunha and Vojvoda supplying attacking width and defensive discipline. In midfield, Perrone and Paz’s technical qualities suit the high-possession approach, while Douvikas and Kühn form a pacy, unpredictable strike pair. Watch for Douvikas’s movement across the line—he’s their main threat in behind and on the shoulder of the last defender.

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My take on the Match

In matches this finely poised, quality in both boxes decides the outcome. Lazio’s discipline and home advantage shouldn’t be underestimated, but it’s hard to ignore Como’s upward trajectory: confidence, attacking output, the absence of red cards or disciplinary meltdowns. Both sides are likely to find the net, but Como’s sharper edge and Sarri’s sometimes risk-averse approach nudges me towards a result that’s either a Como draw or slim Como win (Draw No Bet, Como). This could truly spring either way, but if Como convert their chances, they can edge a statement win and shake up the table. Roll on Sunday night—what a fixture this is shaping up to be!

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