Larne vs Tre Fiori Prediction: 14 July 2026 UEFA Champions League

Larne host Tre Fiori at Windsor Park, Belfast, in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League 2026/27 First Qualifying Round tie. The Northern Irish side already hold the advantage after winning the first leg 1-0, meaning Tre Fiori must score at least twice without conceding to advance. That is a tall order for a San Marino club that has managed just two goals across its last five matches.

The first leg told a clear story. Larne controlled proceedings and limited their opponents to just two shots over the course of the game, while generating 22 of their own. Matthew Lusty has been the standout contributor in front of goal, netting both of Larne’s goals across the two most recent matches, and he is the player Tre Fiori will fear most heading into this second leg. Sam McClelland, operating from defence, has also shown his influence with two assists in those same fixtures and adds a set-piece threat that Gary Haveron’s side can exploit.

Hot stat: Larne produced 22 total shots in their last two matches combined, compared to just two for Tre Fiori. That 11-to-1 ratio in shot volume reflects just how dominant the Northern Irish side has been in this tie.

Larne vs Tre Fiori Prediction

Larne enter this second leg as heavy favourites, and the aggregate situation only makes Tre Fiori’s task harder. The San Marino outfit must attack from the first whistle, which will open space for a Larne side that has looked comfortable on the counter and from set pieces. Bookmakers price a Larne win at around 1.18, and that reflects the reality of this matchup accurately.

The best value here is on Larne winning and the game going over 2.5 goals. Tre Fiori’s need to chase the tie means Larne will have room to exploit, and the hosts have shown they can punish teams that commit forward. We predict a comfortable Larne victory that effectively ends the tie.

Larne have averaged roughly 11 shots per game in recent outings, while Tre Fiori have been passive in possession and struggled to create. Tre Fiori’s corner kick count of four versus Larne’s ten across the same sample also points to a game where the hosts dominate territorial play. Yellow cards have been distributed evenly at four each, so neither side carries a suspension risk that would change the lineup picture significantly.

Team Analysis

Larne have been the more consistent side over the past month. Across their last five matches they picked up three wins and two draws without a single defeat. Their 3-4-1-2 shape gives them defensive solidity through a back three while allowing the wing-backs to push forward and generate width. In the first leg against Tre Fiori, that structure worked perfectly, keeping the visitors scoreless and producing a controlled 1-0 win. Before that, Larne beat HW Welders 2-1 and edged Connahs Quay 1-0, showing they can grind out results in tight domestic fixtures. The two draws against Coleraine and Stranraer were goalless affairs, which suggests Gary Haveron’s side can also shut games down when needed.

Tre Fiori arrive in Belfast having lost their only match in the past 30 days, which was the first leg of this very tie. Their recent domestic form shows two losses in their last five, with wins over Faetano and Libertas bookending a draw against Pennarossa. The defeat to La Fiorita, where they conceded three goals, is the most revealing result. Danilo Girolomoni’s side has struggled defensively against teams with genuine attacking quality, and Larne have more than enough to exploit that. Their 3-5-2 setup can be compact, but the wing-backs on both sides leave them exposed when the pressure builds.

🚨Check out our dedicated Larne vs Tre Fiori stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Larne the Favourite

• Moneyline Larne 1.18 | Tre Fiori 12.89
• Draw 6.20
• Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A

The moneyline odds on Larne sitting between 1.15 and 1.21 across bookmakers reflect the near-certainty that the market attaches to a home win. Pinnacle, generally the sharpest book, has Larne at 1.18, which aligns with the 78% win probability from the average bookmaker model. The draw at 6.20 and Tre Fiori at 12.89 are priced correctly given the aggregate situation. There is limited value chasing Larne on the moneyline at those odds, so the smarter play is to build around the goals market or the corners line, where Larne’s dominance in both areas creates better returns.

Possible Starting Lineups

Larne Possible Starting Eleven

Larne look set to line up in their familiar 3-4-1-2, with Rohan Ferguson as the clear first-choice goalkeeper having logged the full 180 minutes across the two most recent fixtures. The back three of Cosgrove, Donnelly, and Ridley has been consistent, with McClelland operating as a wing-back and contributing two assists. Matthew Lusty is the player to watch. He has scored both of Larne’s goals in this run and operates with real sharpness in the final third. Leroy Millar and Ronan Doherty provide depth off the bench should Haveron need to change the tempo.

Tre Fiori Possible Starting Eleven

Tre Fiori are expected to line up in a 3-5-2, with Michele Nardi as the regular starter in goal after logging the full 180 minutes across the two most recent matches. Matteo Prandelli carries a yellow card caution, and with the pressure to score, he may push forward more aggressively, which creates a risk of a second booking. Tommaso Leon Bernardi has been the most active forward in terms of playing time and will likely lead the press. The reality is that this squad lacks the individual quality to turn the tie around against a well-organised Larne defence.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Larne are in complete control of this tie. They won the first leg cleanly, they carry better form, and they are playing at home in front of their own supporters at Windsor Park. Tre Fiori have scored just once in their last three matches and created almost nothing in the first leg, managing only two shots against a defence that has not conceded in the last two games.

We predict Larne to win this second leg by at least two goals, progressing comfortably on aggregate. The corners market is worth targeting given Larne’s territorial dominance, and the “Larne to win both halves” option offers solid value for a side that takes control early and rarely lets it go. Tre Fiori simply do not have the attacking tools to threaten a team of Larne’s quality over 90 minutes, especially with the tie already going against them.

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