Sofia Quijada
La Serena welcome Cobresal to La Portada in what is a must-win Copa Chile 2026 Group C fixture for both sides. Both clubs sit on zero points after their opening group games, with La Serena conceding four to Antofagasta and Cobresal failing to score against Cobreloa. With Antofagasta already on seven points, a loss here is effectively an elimination. The home side carry a numerical advantage in squad depth, and Felipe Chamorro has been one of the few consistent bright spots for La Serena this year, scoring twice in five recent outings while racking up three yellow cards, which makes his discipline a factor to watch. For Cobresal, Stefan Pino is their primary attacking threat, generating 15 shots in four matches, though he has only converted once.
Hot stat: Cobresal have gone five straight matches without a single win, losing all five, and have scored just one goal across those games. La Serena, despite their own poor run, scored eight goals in the same five-match window.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa Chile 2026, Group C |
| 🏟 Venue: | La Portada, La Serena |
| 🗓️ Date: | 24.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 22:00 CEST |
La Serena vs Cobresal Prediction
La Serena are the clear pick here. They hold home advantage, a significantly better recent scoring record, and face a Cobresal side that has failed to score in four of their last five matches. The 4-3-3 setup under Felipe Gutiérrez gives them width and attacking presence, while Cobresal’s 3-4-3 looks ambitious for a team in such poor form and will likely leave them exposed at the back.
Cobresal average just 23 fouls per five matches compared to La Serena’s 41, suggesting La Serena press harder and win the ball more aggressively, which suits home play. La Serena’s pass accuracy across recent games (1025 out of 1370 passes) is notably higher than Cobresal’s (854 out of 1068), meaning La Serena will likely control tempo. Cobresal’s five yellow cards in five games versus La Serena’s eleven also tells a story: La Serena play with more intensity. Cobresal’s lack of aggression may actually allow La Serena to build freely.
- We predict La Serena to win this match, with the home side’s attacking output and Cobresal’s goalless streak making a home victory the most logical outcome.
- Cobresal’s attacking line has generated shots (45 total in five games) but converted almost nothing, so we lean toward Under 2.5 goals being a close call, though La Serena’s firepower tips us toward Over 2.5.
- Given Cobresal’s scoring drought, BTTS No looks like the smarter lean.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | La Serena to Win & Clean Sheet |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
La Serena have had a difficult stretch, but their last five matches show a team that at least generates goals. Their 4-1 win over Limache was followed by a 2-4 loss to Colo Colo, a 0-2 defeat to Union La Calera, a 1-1 draw with Audax Italiano, and most recently a 2-4 loss to Antofagasta in the Copa Chile group opener. That Antofagasta side currently tops Group C and carries a strong recent form line, so the 2-4 loss is less damning in context. La Serena have scored in four of five recent games, and their 57 total shots across those matches shows they create opportunities. The problem is defensive: they conceded 11 goals in five games. At home, with a weaker opponent, the attacking numbers are encouraging.
Cobresal’s form is genuinely alarming. Their last five results read: a 1-2 loss to Audax Italiano, a 0-1 loss to Nublense, a 1-5 collapse against Universidad Católica, a 0-3 defeat to Colo Colo, and a 0-2 loss to Cobreloa in the Copa Chile opener. They have scored just one goal in that entire run and failed to score at all in four of five matches. Gustavo Huerta’s 3-4-3 formation has not produced results, and the squad’s pass accuracy of 854 from 1068 attempts shows they are also struggling in build-up. Stefan Pino’s 15 shots in four games give them some hope, but without conversion, those numbers mean little.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
The head-to-head record between these two is tightly contested. La Serena won their most recent league meeting 1-0 earlier in 2026, but Cobresal took the January friendly 3-2 and have won two of the last six encounters. Copa Chile specifically has seen La Serena win once (2-1 in 2025) and the other Copa Chile meeting end 1-1. Cobresal have shown they can beat La Serena, but their current form makes a repeat very unlikely.
| Statistic | La Serena | Cobresal |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 8 | 1 |
| Total shots | 57 | 45 |
| Free kicks | 41 | 35 |
| Corner kicks | 16 | 21 |
| Total fouls | 41 | 23 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 74.8% | 79.9% |
| Interceptions | 45 | 29 |
| Offsides | 5 | 5 |
🚨Check out our dedicated La Serena vs Cobresal stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: La Serena the Favourite
- Moneyline La Serena 1.62–1.68 | Cobresal 3.10–4.40
- Draw 3.50
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
La Serena at 1.62–1.68 reflects their genuine home advantage and Cobresal’s awful run. The wide range on Cobresal (3.10 to 4.40) across bookmakers is worth noting: the 3.10 from one provider seems too short given five straight losses. Bovada’s 4.30 is more honest. The draw at 3.50 is fair, but given the stakes and Cobresal’s inability to score, a draw feels unlikely unless La Serena implode defensively again. We see value in the La Serena win at 1.68, and the clean sheet angle adds further value given Cobresal’s goalless streak.
Cobresal. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
La Serena Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Federico Lanzillota
- DF: Bruno Gutierrez, Rafael Delgado, Matias Pinto, Joaquín Gutierrez
- MF: Francis Mac Allister, Gonzalo Escalante, Felipe Chamorro
- FW: Jeisson Vargas, Diego Rubio, Ángelo Henríquez
Federico Lanzillota gets the nod in goal after appearing in four of five recent matches, with Jose Tapia the backup option. The back four picks itself based on appearance counts, with Bruno Gutierrez and Rafael Delgado both logging all five games. Francis Mac Allister anchors midfield with the most passes of any outfield player (180), while Gonzalo Escalante provides the goal threat from central areas. Felipe Chamorro, despite his yellow card count, is too important to drop given his two goals. Up front, Jeisson Vargas’ three assists make him the key creative outlet, with Diego Rubio the poacher having scored twice in just two appearances. La Serena will likely line up in their familiar 4-3-3.
Cobresal Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Alejandro Santander
- DF: Franco Bechtholdt, Guillermo Pacheco, José Tiznado, Antonio Castillo, Aaron Astudillo
- MF: Bryan Carvallo, Agustín Nadruz, Esteban Valencia
- FW: Stefan Pino, Julián Brea
Cobresal’s 3-4-3 in practice looks closer to a 3-4-2-1 given how rarely their wide forwards contribute. Alejandro Santander starts in goal with 14 saves across four games, which underlines how much work he has been doing. The defensive block is heavy, with five defenders covering most of the recent playing time. Stefan Pino is the one genuine threat up front with 15 shots in four games, and Julián Brea has been active with eight free kicks won. Agustín Nadruz carries a yellow card caution. Huerta may shift shape slightly to be more defensive given the must-win pressure, but personnel options are limited.
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La Serena. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
La Serena are the pick to win this match at La Portada. Cobresal have scored once in five games, lost all five, and now face a home side that, despite their own defensive problems, has scored eight times in the same window. The bookmakers agree, and to be honest, the 1.68 available on La Serena at Bovada reflects the reality of this fixture better than any other line. We predict La Serena win with a clean sheet, backing their attacking output against a Cobresal side that has shown no signs of turning their form around. Over 7.5 corners is also worth considering: La Serena generated 16 corners in five games and Cobresal 21, meaning both teams push wide, and a tense, must-win game will produce plenty of set-piece situations. Our final call is La Serena to Win and Under 3.5 Goals, with the home side taking a controlled 2-0 or 2-1 victory.
