Liam Duckstein
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Kazakhstan host Slovakia at the Astana Arena in a League C Group 3 fixture that carries real weight for both sides. Slovakia lead the table with eleven points from five matches, while Kazakhstan sit bottom with two points and need a result.
The head-to-head story favours the visitors. Slovakia won the earlier meeting 2-1, and Kazakhstan have not turned a group clash with Slovakia into anything better than a narrow defeat. Kazakhstan will try to make this a scrappy contest, and that suits neither side perfectly.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League C Group 3 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Astana Arena, Astana |
| 🗓️ Date: | 16.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 17:00 CEST |
Kazakhstan vs Slovakia prediction
We predict Slovakia to win, and we back the visitors to score in a match that opens up. Slovakia are the stronger side on the ball, and their away form in this group has been steady. Kazakhstan have scored six times in five matches but conceded nine, which tells us their defence leaks chances.
Our best value pick sits in a non-typical market. Slovakia to win and both teams to score offers more upside than a straight home or away result. Slovakia at 1.78 looks short, and the draw at around 3.70 does not hold enough appeal for us.
Style matters here. Kazakhstan committed 19 fouls across their latest five matches against seven from Slovakia, and they picked up two yellow cards in that span. Slovakia completed 529 of 620 passes, a sharp 85 percent, while Kazakhstan managed 299 from 390. That gap in ball progression should push Slovakia into the Kazakhstan half, and the visitors will create the better openings. Kazakhstan may still find a goal on the counter, which is why we see both teams scoring as likely.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Slovakia to win and both teams to score |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Kazakhstan arrive on a poor run. They have collected only two wins this year from nine matches, and their most recent outing ended in a 2-1 home loss to Moldova. In our preview of Moldova vs Kazakhstan we called a draw, and the 2-1 result went against us. Kazakhstan created chances in that game but could not hold their shape at the back.
Slovakia have been far more consistent. They have won five of nine matches this year, and their latest form reads three wins and two draws across the last five games. Their most recent match was a 2-2 draw with the Faroe Islands. In our preview of Slovakia vs Faroe Islands we called a Slovakia win, perhaps by 2-0 or 1-0, and the 2-2 result went against us. Slovakia still dominated the ball and took nine corners, so we see the attacking side of their game as intact.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Kazakhstan | Slovakia |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Kazakhstan vs Slovakia stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Slovakia the favourite
- Moneyline Kazakhstan 4.40 | Slovakia 1.78
- Draw 3.78
The market makes Slovakia strong favourites, and the bookmakers sit at 53 percent for the visitors. Kazakhstan at around 4.40 carries a 21 percent expectation, and the draw sits at 25 percent. We think Slovakia are fairly priced at this level. The better angle lies in the goals and the combination market, where the defensive numbers for Kazakhstan offer more value than the straight result.
Possible Starting Lineups
Kazakhstan possible starting eleven
- GK: Stas Pokatilov
- DF: Temirlan Erlanov, Alibek Kassym, Nuraly Alip, Aleksandr Mrynskiy, Nauryzbek Zhagorov
- MF: Ramazan Orazov, Dinmukhamed Karaman, Islambek Kuat
- FW: Maksim Samorodov, Islam Chesnokov
Pokatilov played the full ninety minutes in goal and remains the clear choice. Erlanov and Alip logged full games and bring the most experience to the back line. Islam Chesnokov is the player to watch. He scored in the recent meeting with Faroe Islands and took three shots, so he remains the most direct attacking threat. Kazakhstan should line up in a 5-3-2, which matches their most used shape.
Slovakia possible starting eleven
- GK: Dominik Greif
- DF: Dávid Hancko, Milan Škriniar, Lubomír Šatka, Martin Valjent, Ivan Mesik
- MF: Ondrej Duda, Ludovit Reis, Albert Rusnák
- FW: Lukáš Haraslín, Erik Prekop
Greif started every minute of the last match and keeps his place. Ondrej Duda is the key figure in midfield. He completed 88 passes from 102 in his most recent appearance, so he controls the tempo. We expect Slovakia to line up in a 5-3-2, with Haraslín and Prekop leading the line. Haraslín has already scored and created chances, making him the player to watch in this lineup.
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Kazakhstan. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Slovakia to win 2-1, with both teams finding the net. Slovakia have the stronger attack, the better pass accuracy, and the steadier form. Kazakhstan have struggled to keep the ball and to stop opponents at the back, which gives the visitors the openings they need.
Kazakhstan should not be written off. They have a forward in Chesnokov who scores, and a counter attack could find space against a Slovakia side that has dropped points away from home. To be honest, we would not be shocked by a draw. Still, Slovakia look the more complete team, and our pick is the win with both teams to score.
Read Also: Kazakhstan vs Slovakia Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form (Updated November 2026)
Read Also: Kazakhstan vs Slovakia Predicted Line-ups and Team News: Both Expected XIs
