Liam Duckstein
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Kauno Zalgiris host Dinamo Zagreb at the Darius and Girėnas Stadium in Kaunas for the second leg of their UEFA Champions League Third Qualifying Round tie. The Lithuanian side face an almost impossible task after losing the first leg 5-0 in Zagreb, meaning they need a historic comeback just to force extra time. Dinamo Zagreb arrive in Kaunas needing only to avoid a five-goal defeat, which makes their approach to this match almost entirely defensive in nature.
Zalgiris have shown decent domestic form, but the gulf in class was brutally exposed in the first leg. Zagreb are the heavy favorites and rightly so, sitting 604 places above Zalgiris in the world club rankings.
Two players stand out as ones to watch. Dion Drena Beljo has been devastating for Zagreb across the last five matches, scoring three goals and contributing two assists while leading the team in total shots with 13. For Zalgiris, Leon Krekovic is the one forward who has found the net recently and will carry the attacking responsibility for the hosts.
The hot stat from recent matches: Dinamo Zagreb scored five goals against Zalgiris in the first leg alone, and across their last five games they have recorded 110 total shots and 50 corner kicks, averaging ten corners per match. That attacking volume tells you everything about how dominant Zagreb have been.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Champions League 2026/27, Third Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Darius and Girėnas Stadium, Kaunas |
| 🗓️ Date: | 11.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:00 CEST |
Kauno Zalgiris vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction
With a 5-0 deficit from the first leg, Zalgiris have no realistic path to progression unless they score five unanswered goals. Zagreb will manage the tie rather than chase goals, but their attacking quality is so superior that scoring opportunities will still come naturally. We predict Dinamo Zagreb to win this match, and the aggregate scoreline to grow further in Zagreb’s favor.
The most sensible bet here is Dinamo Zagreb to win the match. Their quality across every department is far above what Zalgiris can offer at this level, and even a conservative Zagreb side should create enough to take three points. The away win market offers limited value at around 1.35 to 1.46, so the better angle is to look at the goals and corners markets.
Zalgiris average just over one goal per match in their last five games and carry a very low shot volume. Zagreb’s defensive solidity, combined with their tendency to dominate possession and territory, points toward a controlled win rather than a high-scoring affair. Zalgiris will likely set up deep and compact, reducing the total goal count compared to the first leg.
Regarding discipline and style, Zalgiris have accumulated five yellow cards across their last five matches and play a narrow 4-1-4-1 that tends to sit in two defensive blocks. Zagreb carry eight yellow cards over the same period, fouls totaling 39, and they play a direct 4-4-2 with high pressing triggers. Zagreb’s foul count and card tally reflect their aggressive pressing style, which often disrupts opponents early and wins the territory battle quickly. Zalgiris will struggle to maintain possession against that press, which limits their ability to build any sustained attacking threat.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Dinamo Zagreb to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Kauno Zalgiris enter this second leg on the back of mixed recent form. In the last 30 days they have won five, drawn one, and lost one from seven matches, which looks respectable on paper. Their most recent result was a 2-0 domestic win over Hegelmann Litauen, which offered some confidence ahead of this tie. Before that, the 5-0 loss to Zagreb in the first leg was their heaviest result of the campaign. They also recorded a 1-0 win over Klaksvik and a goalless draw in the first leg of that tie, showing they can grind out results at their level. The 4-0 win over Siauliai further underlines their domestic dominance, but the step up in quality at European level has exposed real limitations in their squad depth and individual quality.
Dinamo Zagreb have been in excellent form, going unbeaten across their last six matches with three wins and three draws. The 5-0 demolition of Zalgiris in the first leg was their most emphatic result of the recent run. Before that, they beat Slaven Belupo 2-0 in the Croatian league, which showed they can maintain focus across competitions. The two draws against Thun in the Europa League qualifying rounds, 2-2 and 1-1, showed a slight vulnerability when opponents press them high, but their overall attacking output remains impressive. Dion Drena Beljo, Miha Zajc, and Lukas Kacavenda have all contributed goals from midfield and forward positions, giving Mario Kovacevic multiple goal threats across the pitch.
🚨Check out our dedicated Kauno Zalgiris vs Dinamo Zagreb stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Dinamo Zagreb the Favourite
- Moneyline Kauno Zalgiris 7.50 | Dinamo Zagreb 1.35
- Draw 4.40
- Over/Under Over 2.5 | Under 2.5
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes | No
The odds market tells a clear story. Zagreb’s prices cluster between 1.33 and 1.46 across bookmakers, reflecting the near-certainty of a Zagreb win. The best available price on Zagreb is 1.46 at Megapari and 888starz, which offers marginally better value than the market average. Zalgiris at 7.50 with William Hill is a long shot that only makes sense if you believe in a dramatic upset, which the stats do not support. The draw price hovering around 4.40 to 5.12 is inflated given how unlikely Zalgiris are to hold Zagreb scoreless. To be honest, the corners market at over 8.5 looks like the sharpest angle given Zagreb’s average of ten corners per match across their last five games.
Possible Starting Lineups
Kauno Zalgiris Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Tomas Švedkauskas
- DF: Aldayr Hernandez, Joris Moutachy, Nosa Iyobosa Edokpolor, Marko Konatar
- MF: Franco Baldassarra, Vykintas Slivka, Amine Benchaib, Gratas Sirgedas, Ivan Fiolić
- FW: Leon Krekovic
Zalgiris are expected to line up in their familiar 4-1-4-1, with Tomas Švedkauskas in goal after logging 360 minutes across the last five matches. The back four picks itself based on appearances, with Joris Moutachy and Aldayr Hernandez as the most consistent starters in defense. Franco Baldassarra and Vykintas Slivka anchor the midfield, though Slivka carries two yellow cards across the last five games and is a booking risk. Amine Benchaib provides the only notable creative output from midfield, having contributed one assist recently. Leon Krekovic leads the line as the sole forward, and his goal contribution makes him the main threat Zalgiris can offer in attack.
Dinamo Zagreb Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Ivan Filipović
- DF: Scott Mckenna, Sergi Dominguez, Matteo Perez Vinlöf, Moris Valincic
- MF: Josip Mišić, Miha Zajc, Gabriel Vidović, Mislav Oršić
- FW: Dion Drena Beljo, Mateo Lisica
Zagreb are likely to deploy their 4-4-2 with Ivan Filipović between the posts after five consecutive appearances. Scott Mckenna has been a goal threat from set pieces, scoring two in his last five games, while Matteo Perez Vinlöf adds three assists from the defensive line. Josip Mišić controls the midfield tempo with three assists and strong pass accuracy, and Miha Zajc provides the goal threat from central midfield with three goals in five matches. Dion Drena Beljo leads the attack and is the most dangerous player on the pitch, supported by Mateo Lisica who has scored twice recently. Fran Topic and Arber Hoxha provide depth options off the bench.
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Dinamo Zagreb. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
The numbers are unambiguous. Zagreb outshot Zalgiris 110 to 13 across recent matches, generated 50 corners to Zalgiris’s four, and scored five goals in the first leg without reply. Zalgiris have shown they can win domestic games, but their European ceiling has been exposed. Zagreb’s attacking unit, led by Beljo and supported by Zajc and Kacavenda, will create multiple chances at the Darius and Girėnas Stadium.
We predict Dinamo Zagreb to win this match comfortably, with over 2.5 goals being the most reliable market. The corners line at over 8.5 is our preferred secondary bet given Zagreb’s consistent territorial dominance. Zalgiris will defend deep and may nick a goal on the counter, which is why both teams to score at yes carries some appeal, perhaps making it worth adding to a small accumulator.
- Match result: Dinamo Zagreb to win
- Total goals: Over 2.5
- Both teams to score: Yes
- Total corners: Over 8.5
- Hot tip: Dinamo Zagreb to win both halves
