Kairat Almaty vs Olympiacos Prediction: 09.12.2025 UEFA Champions League 2025/26

The UEFA Champions League’s league phase always promises intriguing matchups, and this upcoming clash between Kairat Almaty and Olympiacos at Astana Arena is no exception. While Olympiacos are no strangers to European competition, Kairat Almaty look to make a statement against the Greek side—one navigating the group with mixed fortune. To add a layer of intrigue, both teams are in dire need of points, making this a fascinating tactical showdown under the cold December sky in Astana.

All eyes will be on Ayoub El Kaabi, Olympiacos’ in-form striker who has already netted six times in his last five outings—a performance as clinical as a Torres run in blue. On the opposite side, Olzhas Baybek stands out for Kairat Almaty, his dynamism and recent goal-scoring will be vital if the Kazakhs are to pierce the Greek backline.

The “hot stat” here is Olympiacos’ offensive resurgence: 15 goals in their last five matches—a tally only the competition’s most aggressive sides can rival.

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Kairat Almaty vs Olympiacos prediction

Given Olympiacos’ vastly superior form—five wins from their last six compared to Kairat’s two straight defeats—the Greeks look primed to take all three points. The Greek side holds a strong attacking arsenal, with El Kaabi and Mehdi Taremi providing relentless forward thrust, complemented by creative midfield play from Yazici and Strefezza. Kairat Almaty, despite playing at home, have struggled especially in defence, conceding 14 goals in their previous five matches alone.

Stylistically, Olympiacos excel in quick transitions and ball retention, averaging over 400 passes per match with a pass accuracy north of 85%. Their discipline is admirable—just two yellow cards in their last five outings—suggesting a team that strikes a balance between aggression and control. Kairat, meanwhile, show a tendency for physical play (10 fouls per match and four yellows in five games), which could be exploited by Olympiacos’ more technical approach, especially when the pace quickens.

Team Analysis

Kairat Almaty’s recent spell has been tough by any measure. Their last match was a 2-3 home defeat to Copenhagen, a match in which the Kazakhs let go an early lead and struggled defensively throughout. Despite flashes of attacking intent—evidenced by Olzhas Baybek’s lively presence—their inability to hold ground under pressure cost them dearly. Before that, a 1-2 loss to Inter revealed both resilience and fragility: Kairat managed to pull a goal back but couldn’t mount any sustained pressure on the Italian defence. In the league, draws against Astana and Pafos mean they’ve picked up only a single point from four European outings, leaving them in desperate need of a spark to revive their campaign.

Olympiacos, in contrast, have been a breath of fresh Mediterranean air when it comes to offensive play. Their last five matches yielded four wins, including a commanding 3-0 result over OFI Crete and a goal-laden 5-2 demolition of Hellas Syrou. Even in their narrow, spirited 3-4 defeat to Real Madrid, Mendilibar’s men showed resilience and creativity, refusing to bow out quietly against one of Europe’s elite. The Greek side’s strength lies in direct attacks, quick combinations through midfield, and frequent switches of play that overwhelm less organised backlines.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Kairat Almaty vs Olympiacos stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Olympiacos the favourite

• Moneyline Kairat Almaty 6.60 | Olympiacos 1.50-1.55
• Draw 4.20-4.52
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.70 | Under 2.5 2.10
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.98 | No 1.82

The bookmakers have made Olympiacos emphatic favourites, and rightly so considering their European pedigree and attacking output. With odds for the away win as short as 1.50, there’s little value in backing the underdog. However, the pricing for goals and both teams to score reflects Kairat’s vulnerability at the back—but also that they might snatch a consolation on home soil.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Kairat Almaty possible starting eleven

It’s likely Rafael Urazbakhtin will line up Kairat in a 4-2-3-1, hoping for defensive solidity while relying on Baybek’s industry and Edmilson’s knack for stretching play. With Sorokin marshaling the backline and Anarbekov between the sticks, Kairat should try for a compact approach and hope to counter through their wingers, with Baybek’s movement of particular interest.

Olympiacos possible starting eleven

Olympiacos are expected to stick to their recent 4-2-3-1 system, maximising the linkup between El Kaabi and Taremi, who together present a relentless threat up front. Yazici will be the creative linchpin behind them, with Rodinei overlapping for width. If Mendilibar’s men get a foothold in midfield, Kairat could struggle to stem the tide.

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My take on the Match

From a journalistic standpoint, this tie looks tailor-made for Olympiacos to exploit. The Greeks’ attacking verve, personified by El Kaabi’s goal streak and Taremi’s guile, should be decisive against a Kairat defence leaking goals at an alarming rate. Kairat’s best hope is to keep things tight and batter down Olympiacos on the break, but the weight of European experience and current form leans heavily towards the visitors. My main pick: Olympiacos to win and over 2.5 goals. Still, as we’ve seen so many times on European nights, never write off a home side hungry for redemption!

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