Liam Duckstein
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The second leg of this UEFA Champions League Third Qualifying Round tie takes place at the Turkestan Arena on 11 August 2026. Levski Sofia arrive with a 1-0 lead from the first leg, played just days ago, which means Kairat Almaty must win or face elimination from Europe’s top club competition. Julio Velázquez’s side has been the standout team across both legs so far, and the Bulgarian outfit enters this match with genuinely impressive momentum, having lost none of their last eight fixtures.
Midfielder Sergio Miguel Lobo Araujo has been the standout performer for Levski Sofia in recent weeks, contributing two goals and one assist across the last three matches. For Kairat Almaty, Brazilian forward Edmilson de Paula Santos Filho is their most productive attacker in this stretch, scoring the only goal among the team’s forwards in the last five games. His ability to hold up play and finish in tight spaces will be key if Rafael Urazbakhtin’s side is to turn this tie around.
Levski Sofia have registered 31 total shots and 18 corner kicks across their last five matches, compared to Kairat’s 19 shots and 13 corners. That gap in attacking output is a hot stat worth noting, and it tells the story of a team that generates far more pressure than their hosts in this tie.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Champions League 2026/27, Third Qualifying Round |
| 🗓️ Date: | 11.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 17:00 CEST |
Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia prediction
Levski Sofia hold the aggregate advantage and have shown they are the stronger side across both legs. Kairat Almaty must attack from the first whistle, which opens space for the visitors to exploit on the counter. Levski’s form over the last 30 days is exceptional, with seven wins and one draw from eight matches, a winrate of 88%. Kairat, despite being the home side, have lost twice in that same period and have looked vulnerable against organised defensive blocks.
The first leg ended 1-0 to Levski, and the pattern of play suggested that result was deserved. Kairat generated little in the way of clear chances, and their defensive shape was exposed on multiple occasions. Levski’s ability to keep clean sheets, having conceded just one goal in their last three competitive matches, adds further weight to backing them to progress.
We predict Levski Sofia to win or draw this match, effectively advancing on aggregate. The visitors are well-drilled, have the better squad depth at this stage of European competition, and carry a real goal threat from multiple positions. Backing Levski Sofia on the double chance market offers solid value at these odds.
Kairat commit fouls regularly and carry yellow card risk, with six yellows across their last five games matching Levski’s tally. Both teams press high at times, which increases the likelihood of set-piece situations. Levski’s corner count of 18 in five matches suggests they will look to exploit aerial duels from dead-ball situations, and Kairat’s defensive organisation under pressure remains a concern. Levski’s 4-3-3 setup allows them to press high and transition quickly, and that style has worked well against teams forced to chase the game.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Levski Sofia Double Chance (Draw or Win) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Kairat Almaty’s recent run shows five wins and two losses from their last seven matches, but those losses are significant in context. They fell 1-0 to Levski in the first leg and also dropped a result against Omonia Nicosia earlier in this European campaign. Their wins have come against lower-ranked opposition, including Ordabasy and Atyrau in domestic competition. The team’s 4-2-3-1 shape gives them structural solidity, but they have struggled to create against organised European sides. Going into this match needing a result at home, the pressure will be on from the start, and that can either sharpen a team or leave them exposed.
Levski Sofia come into this second leg in outstanding form. Seven wins from eight matches over the last 30 days is a remarkable return, and their most recent outing, a 2-0 win over Lokomotiv Plovdiv, showed their ability to control matches without being tested. Before that, they beat Septemvri Sofia 3-0 and secured the first-leg victory over Kairat. Their only blemish in recent form is a 2-2 draw with Universitatea Craiova, where they showed character to share the points against a competitive Romanian side. Velázquez has built a team that is hard to break down and efficient in front of goal.
🚨Check out our dedicated Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Levski Sofia the favourite
- Moneyline Kairat Almaty 2.50 | Levski Sofia 2.77
- Draw 3.24
The bookmakers have Kairat Almaty as a narrow favourite on paper at around 2.50, but the aggregate situation changes the picture entirely. Levski’s odds of around 2.77 to win in 90 minutes represent decent value given their form and the first-leg result. The draw at 3.24 is also interesting, as it would be enough for Levski to advance. We see the best value in backing Levski Sofia to either win or draw, rather than placing full confidence in a Kairat comeback at this stage of the tie.
Possible Starting Lineups
Kairat Almaty possible starting eleven
- GK: Temirlan Anarbekov
- DF: Lucas Áfrico, Aleksandr Martynovich, Damir Kasabulat, Luis Mata
- MF: Jaakko Oksanen, Aleksandr Mrynskiy, Adilet Sadybekov, Gustavo Mendonca
- FW: Edmilson de Paula Santos Filho, Marc Gual
Temirlan Anarbekov has been the first-choice goalkeeper throughout this run and keeps his place. Aleksandr Martynovich anchors the defensive line and has accumulated yellow card risk, so discipline will matter in a high-pressure second leg. Luis Mata has chipped in with an assist in recent matches and provides width from the left side. Edmilson de Paula Santos Filho leads the attack and is the most likely source of a goal for the hosts. Kairat will likely set up in their familiar 4-2-3-1, with Oksanen and Mrynskiy shielding the back four while the attacking trio looks to create overloads.
Levski Sofia possible starting eleven
- GK: Svetoslav Vutsov
- DF: Álex Centelles, Aldair, Kristian Dimitrov, Nikola Serafimov
- MF: Mazire Soula, Mehdi Moubarik, Sergio Miguel Lobo Araujo
- FW: Armstrong Oko-Flex, Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno, Juan Esteban Perea Sanchez
Svetoslav Vutsov has been consistent in goal and is the clear first choice between the posts. Aldair has contributed one goal and operates as a ball-playing centre-back, adding an extra dimension from deep. The key figure is Sergio Miguel Lobo Araujo in midfield, whose two goals and one assist in the last three games make him the most dangerous player on the pitch. Mazire Soula has two assists in recent matches and provides the creative link between midfield and attack. Velázquez will likely stick with the 4-3-3 that has served him well, pressing high and looking to catch Kairat on the break.
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Kairat Almaty. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Levski Sofia are the better team across every relevant metric heading into this second leg. Their shot volume, corner count, goal output, and recent form all point to a side that is operating at a higher level than their Kazakh opponents. Kairat must score to have any hope, but they managed nothing in the first leg against this same Levski defensive structure.
Velázquez’s team knows how to manage a lead. Their three wins in this most recent run have all come with clean sheets, and they have the personnel to sit deep and absorb pressure when needed. We predict Levski Sofia to either win or keep the tie goalless in 90 minutes, advancing on aggregate. Our primary pick is a Levski Sofia win, with under 2.5 goals as the supporting play. The corner market is also worth attention given Levski’s consistent set-piece activity, and we back over 8.5 corners across the 90 minutes.
