Sofia Quijada
A high-stakes clash awaits at Estadio Romelio Martinez as Junior Barranquilla welcome Deportivo Pasto in a battle between top-four contenders in the Primera A Apertura. Both teams are separated by just two points in the standings, with Pasto sitting second and Junior fourth. The home side, managed by Alfredo Arias, will count on their attacking duo of Carlos Bacca and Luis Muriel, who have combined for four goals in their last five matches. Deportivo Pasto, under René Rosero, rely heavily on Andrey Estupinan’s creative spark and goalscoring threat—he’s netted twice in the last three games.
A hot stat from recent fixtures: Junior Barranquilla have fired 44 shots across their last five outings, almost double Pasto’s 27, underlining their aggressive approach at home.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Primera A 2026 Apertura (Colombia) |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Romelio Martinez, Barranquilla |
| 🗓️ Date: | 04.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:45 CEST |
Junior Barranquilla vs Deportivo Pasto prediction
We predict Junior Barranquilla to win. Home advantage and the Barranquilla attack’s productivity make them clear favorites. Junior average 8.8 shots per match in their last five, compared to Pasto’s 5.4, and have scored more goals. Their pass accuracy of 81% also outshines Pasto’s 82%, but Barranquilla’s higher pressing and interception numbers (38 to 20) could unsettle Pasto’s build-up. Pasto have a slightly higher win rate this year, yet their away record remains less convincing. Junior’s front line, featuring the experience of Bacca and the dynamism of Muriel, poses a threat to any defense in this division.
Both teams are disciplined defensively, with only one red card apiece in the last five games. Barranquilla are more physical (61 fouls vs. Pasto’s 35) and have seen more yellow cards. Expect a match where set pieces play a role—Junior have 16 corners in five matches, while Pasto only have nine. Fewer free kicks for Pasto also reflect a less direct style.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Junior Barranquilla to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Junior Barranquilla’s last five matches show inconsistency, but their attack always threatens. In the most recent match, a 0-2 loss to Sporting Cristal, Barranquilla controlled possession and produced plenty of attempts but lacked finishing. Previous wins over Llaneros (2-0) and Aguilas Doradas (3-0) showcased their ability to dominate weaker sides. The draw with Cucuta (1-1) exposed defensive lapses, but the team continues to create opportunities, especially via Bacca and Muriel, who remain central to their offensive play.
Deportivo Pasto’s recent form is steadier. Their 1-2 home defeat to Santa Fe reflected some vulnerability against teams with attacking intent. Wins over Jaguares de Cordoba (3-2) and Deportes Tolima (1-0) displayed Pasto’s capacity to edge tight games, with Estupinan and Santiago Cordoba stepping up as key finishers. Pasto often rely on collective pressing, but their total shots and overall attacking metrics lag behind Barranquilla, indicating a more cautious, reactive approach.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Junior Barranquilla | Deportivo Pasto |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 5 | 4 |
| Total shots | 44 | 27 |
| Corner kicks | 16 | 9 |
| Total fouls | 61 | 35 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 81 | 82 |
| Interceptions | 38 | 20 |
| Offsides | 8 | 13 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Junior Barranquilla vs Deportivo Pasto stats page for more info.
Junior Barranquilla. Source: Official X/Twitter. Edited photo
Pre-game odds and win probability: Junior Barranquilla the favourite
- Moneyline Junior Barranquilla 1.93 | Deportivo Pasto 4.13
- Draw 3.28
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.30 | Under 2.5 1.60
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.10 | No 1.65
Bookmakers back Junior Barranquilla strongly. The home odds reflect a 49% win probability, while Pasto’s longer price suggests little faith in their away form. The draw is considered, but not heavily favored. Over 2.5 goals is tempting: both sides’ recent matches have seen multiple goals, especially with Junior’s shot volume. The BTTS market leans toward ‘No,’ but Pasto’s recent offensive output suggests otherwise.
Possible Starting Lineups
Junior Barranquilla possible starting eleven
- GK: Mauro Silveira
- DF: Edwin Herrera, Jermein Pena, Jhonier Guerrero, Jean Carlos Pestaña
- MF: Fabian Bernal, Daniel Rivera, Bryan Castrillón, Jesús Rivas
- FW: Carlos Bacca, Luis Muriel
Barranquilla likely stick with their familiar 4-4-2. Silveira’s reliability in goal anchors the backline. The defensive quartet blends youth and experience; Herrera and Pestaña are consistent. Rivera and Bernal provide structure in midfield, while Castrillón and Rivas offer wide support. Up front, the Bacca–Muriel pairing gives a blend of poise and pace—Bacca remains the focal point, Muriel’s movement drags defenders.
Deportivo Pasto possible starting eleven
- GK: Geovanni Banguera
- DF: Nicolas Gil, Edwin Velasco, Fainer Torijano, Johan Caicedo
- MF: Yeiler Goez, Johan Caicedo, Enrique Serje
- FW: Andrey Estupinan, Wilson Morelo, Santiago Cordoba
Pasto set up in a 4-2-3-1. Banguera starts between the posts. Gil and Velasco have been mainstays at the back, while Torijano adds experience. Goez and Serje control midfield tempo. Estupinan, their most dynamic attacker, lines up behind the striker, with Morelo and Cordoba providing direct options. The system ensures Pasto can break quickly, but midfield protection will be key.
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TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Junior Barranquilla to take all three points. The home team generates more attacking opportunities and plays at a higher tempo. Pasto’s compact midfield can frustrate, but Barranquilla’s experience and width will stretch the visitors. Expect goals on both sides, with the hosts creating more chances and dictating play. We rate Over 2.5 goals and BTTS as high-value bets.
