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January 2026 Top League Upsets and Volatility Report

03.02.2026, 08:43

TipsGG Data Team tracked 77,782 football tips this month across 4,215 unique matches, averaging 2,509 tips per day. Our monitoring covered 339 leagues with 493 active sources, producing a 49.3% global win rate at 2.20 average odds played. The most-tipped competition was Serie A 2025/26 Regular Season with 3,779 tips, with tips monitored 24/7 by our professional team of data managers.

This report is strictly for informational and educational purposes. It serves as a statistical showcase of market trends and historical performance within the sports betting niche and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to place specific bets. Past performance is not indicative of future results. We encourage all readers to view this data as a retrospective market analysis rather than a call to action. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.

Browse more fixtures on our football matches hub and matches calendar. For competition coverage, use the tournaments and leagues list. For upcoming picks, see TipsGG football predictions.

Top Leagues Upset 20

This section highlights the most significant upsets within the Top global football leagues and tournaments. Unlike our general upset list, these results had major implications for league tables and title races. We rank them by Winning Odds, showing you the matches where the bookmakers (and the betting public) least expected the outcome. The ‘Total Lost Tips’ column adds a layer of community context, quantifying exactly how many of tipsters we keep track of were on the wrong side of these surprises.

Tournament Match Score Winning Odds Total Lost Tips
Bundesliga 2025/26 Regular Season Bayern Munich vs FC Augsburg 1-2 19 44
Ligue 1 2025/26 Regular Season Marseille vs Nantes 0-2 10 59
UEFA Champions League 2025/26 League Phase Atletico Madrid vs Bodo Glimt 1-2 9 91
Pro League 2025/26 Regular Season Club Brugge vs RAAL La Louviere 2-3 8.75 49
UEFA Champions League 2025/26 League Phase Villarreal vs Ajax 1-2 7.6 67
Eredivisie 2025/26 Regular Season Groningen vs Sittard 1-2 6.8 30
UEFA Champions League 2025/26 League Phase Bodo Glimt vs Manchester City 3-1 6.2 76
Eredivisie 2025/26 Regular Season Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam 3-4 6.2 40
Serie A 2025/26 Regular Season Cagliari vs Juventus 1-0 6 53
English Premier League 2025/26 Regular Season Aston Villa vs Everton 0-1 5.9 75
English Premier League 2025/26 Regular Season Arsenal vs Manchester United 2-3 5.52 66
Eredivisie 2025/26 Regular Season PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar 3-1 5.45 27
UEFA Champions League 2025/26 League Phase Atalanta vs Athletic Bilbao 2-3 5.4 102
EFL Championship 2025/26 Regular Season Southampton vs Hull 1-2 5.2 23
Bundesliga 2025/26 Regular Season RB Leipzig vs Mainz 1-2 5.2 57
Ligue 1 2025/26 Regular Season Monaco vs Lorient 1-3 5 67
La Liga 2025/26 Regular Season RCD Espanyol vs Alavés 1-2 4.96 59
English Premier League 2025/26 Regular Season Brentford vs Nottingham Forest 0-2 4.94 59
La Liga 2025/26 Regular Season Real Sociedad vs Barcelona 2-1 4.8 75
La Liga 2025/26 Regular Season Sevilla vs Levante 0-3 4.78 51

Top League Voaltility

This section isolates the most popular football leagues and tournaments to measure their competitiveness. We rank them based on Average Winning Odds – effectively a ‘difficulty score’ for prediction. We also break down the Upset Rate (percentage of matches where the favorite failed to win) and Draw Rate. This data reveals the distinct character of each competition: some are statistically predictable, while others are highly volatile markets.

Tournament Matches Analyzed Average Winning Odds Upset Rate Draw Rate
Eredivisie 2025/26 Regular Season 30 3.37 56.7% 33.3%
Pro League 2025/26 Regular Season 20 3.18 70.0% 25.0%
English Premier League 2025/26 Regular Season 49 3.13 59.2% 40.8%
Bundesliga 2025/26 Regular Season 42 2.97 38.1% 31.0%
Ligue 1 2025/26 Regular Season 31 2.85 41.9% 19.4%
EFL Championship 2025/26 Regular Season 69 2.83 62.3% 21.7%
UEFA Champions League 2025/26 League Phase 36 2.82 41.7% 11.1%
Ligue 1 2025/26 Regular Season 16 2.74 75.0% 43.8%
La Liga 2025/26 Regular Season 43 2.71 53.5% 25.6%
Serie A 2025/26 Regular Season 58 2.60 39.7% 29.3%
UEFA Europa League 2025/26 League Phase 36 2.32 33.3% 22.2%
Primeira Liga 2025/26 Regular Season 33 2.25 21.2% 15.2%

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