Italy (w) vs Spain (w) Prediction: 11.07.2025 UEFA European Women's Championship

The final match day in Group B of the UEFA European Women’s Championship 2025 pits Italy Women against tournament favorites Spain Women at Brann Stadion, Bergen. Both sides enter the contest with different objectives: Italy eye a valuable result to cement their knockout participation, while Spain aim to underline their dominance in the group. Intriguingly, Spain’s attacking rhythm and clinical finishing set up an enticing challenge for Italy’s organized but occasionally unadventurous midfield. With both teams featuring experienced managers in Milena Bertolini and Montse Tomé, supporters can expect a tactical chess match played at a high technical level.

For Italy, look to Arianna Caruso – whose tenacity and late runs from midfield proved pivotal in the group stages, and Cristiana Girelli, a striker with a knack for poaching crucial goals. Meanwhile, Spain’s engine will operate around Alexia Putellas, whose three goals and two assists in just two group matches demonstrate her ability to dictate proceedings, and Esther Gonzalez, Spain’s sharp front-runner with three goals to her name in the last two games.

A “hot stat” comes from Spain’s recent form: La Roja have netted an astonishing 11 goals in just two group matches, combining high-volume chance creation (55 shots in their last five matches) with ruthless efficiency in front of goal.

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Italy (w) vs Spain (w) prediction

Given Spain’s remarkable form and goal scoring power, the best value prediction is a Spain (w) win and Over 2.5 goals. Their fluid 3-4-3 system allows for aggressive wing play and overloads, overwhelming almost every opponent so far with both quantity and quality of chances. Italy’s midfield, built on the 4-3-3 formation, provides structure but struggles when pressed and can become isolated. Although Italy’s defense is disciplined, Spain’s attack possesses a depth of movement and interplay simply unmatched in this group.

From a tactical perspective, expect Spain’s 1181 completed passes in their last five games (with an 88% accuracy rate) to translate into expansive possession and relentless pressure on Italy’s backline. Italy’s own stats showcase a more conservative approach, with fewer shots (31) and a heavier defensive workload (488 passes, 14 interceptions). Italy’s 4 yellow cards in just two group games highlight how they’ve had to lean on fouls to break up play, potentially opening up spaces for Spain to exploit via set-pieces or quick combinations. The balance of technical quality and discipline clearly favors the Spanish side.

Team Analysis

Italy (w) Recent Matches:
Italy come off a 1-1 draw with Portugal (w), a result that was hard-fought but demonstrated some of their attacking limitations. While Italy managed just two goals in their last five matches, their defensive organization kept them unbeaten so far in the group. Ball progression depends heavily on Caruso and Bonansea, while Girelli led the line but was often left isolated. Their earlier 1-0 win over Belgium was a testament to their ability to maintain slim leads, but they will be challenged to replicate this against Spain’s high press.

Spain (w) Recent Matches:
Spain have been imperious, thrashing Belgium 6-2 and Portugal 5-0 in the last two matches. Alexia Putellas continues to excel as a creative hub, ably supported by Esther Gonzalez’s forward runs. Spain’s tactical discipline shines with 21 corners and only 2 yellow cards in their five most recent games, underpinning their offensive pressure and composure. Their passing and off-the-ball movement make them dangerous even when pressed; expect more of the same against Italy.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Italy (w) vs Spain (w) stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Spain (w) the favourite

• Moneyline Italy (w) 11.50 | Spain (w) 1.24
• Draw 6.25
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.65 | Under 2.5 2.30
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.40 | No 1.54

With Spain chalked up at roughly 1.24 for the outright win and having the lion’s share of win probability (76 percent from the bookmakers), it’s clear that the market rates La Roja well above their Italian counterparts. Italy’s long odds hinge on a disciplined defensive display, but Spain’s firepower and form make the home upset highly improbable. The “No” option for both teams to score is also favored, reflecting Spain’s defensive solidity and Italy’s limitations going forward.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Italy (w) possible starting eleven

Italy are most effective in a 4-3-3 formation, which allows Bertolini to organize a stable back four with Linari as the leader and Boattin providing key width. Greggi’s energy in the midfield is critical, alongside Caruso, who can break into the box during transition phases. Up front, Girelli’s movement and Bonansea’s intelligence out wide will be vital, although there are concerns about attacking depth. Expect disciplined lines and a reliance on counter-attacks.

Spain (w) possible starting eleven

Spain opt for a 3-4-3, maximising the technical ability of their midfielders and enabling attacking overloads. Romero brings confidence between the sticks, while Aleixandri and Carmona’s forward surges often disrupt set defenses. The midfield partnership between Putellas and Guijarro gives Spain completeness – ball retention, creativity, and tackling. Up top, Esther Gonzalez’s finishing makes her the match’s biggest threat, with Pina and Del Castillo adding dynamism in wide channels. Watch for fluid rotations and frequent incursions into the Italians’ penalty area.

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My take on the Match

Given Spain’s superior recent form, creative strength in midfield, and explosive attacking power, my main pick for this match is a confident Spain (w) -1.5 Asian handicap win. Italy’s resilience and tactical structure should keep them competitive for stretches, but Spain’s relentless attacking play and squad depth tip the balance. Expect Spain to control possession, create frequent scoring chances, and capitalize on any defensive lapses. For punters seeking value, backing Spain on the handicap and over 2.5 goals presents an analytically sound approach for this pivotal Group B encounter.

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