Italy (W) vs Serbia (W) Prediction: 5 June 2026 Women's World Cup Qualification

Italy and Serbia meet again in League A Group A of the Women’s World Cup Qualification UEFA 2026, just weeks after their first encounter ended in a 6-0 rout for the Azzurre. Italy sit third in the standings with five points, still chasing Denmark and Sweden, while Serbia remain rooted to the bottom with a single point from four games. The rematch carries little competitive suspense on paper, but Italy need a strong result to keep pressure on the top two.

Forward Barbara Bonansea is worth watching closely for Italy. She has been a consistent attacking threat throughout the qualification campaign and carries the ability to unlock compact defensive lines. For Serbia, goalkeeper Ivana Ilić faces another difficult evening. Her ability to limit the damage will define how the game is remembered from a Serbian perspective.

Hot stat: Italy scored six goals against Serbia in the reverse fixture, which also happened to be the match where the bookmakers rated Serbia as heavy favourites at 69% for a different outcome. Italy’s attacking output in that game was the most decisive result of the entire group so far.

Italy (W) vs Serbia (W) Prediction

Italy are the clear pick here. They have already beaten Serbia 6-0 this campaign, and Serbia have won zero of their four group matches. Italy’s only group loss came against Sweden, a significantly stronger side. Against weaker opposition, Andrea Soncin’s team has been clinical.

Serbia have conceded ten goals in four group games and scored just one. Their defensive structure has been consistently overrun, and there is no evidence from their recent form to suggest that changes here. Italy’s attack should find space early and often.

We predict Italy to win and cover comfortably. The most valuable market is Italy to win with over 3.5 goals in the match. Given what happened in the first meeting and Serbia’s inability to keep clean sheets, the total goals line is worth targeting aggressively.

Italy tend to control possession and build through patient passing combinations. Serbia, by contrast, have been forced into a defensive shape in most of their group games. That style of play leads to corner accumulation for the dominant side, and Italy have shown they can generate high corner counts when pressing teams back into their own half. The foul count is likely to be modest from Italy’s side, as Serbia may not have the quality to draw contact consistently in dangerous areas.

Team Analysis

Italy’s recent form across the qualification group has been mixed at the top level but dominant against lower-ranked opposition. They drew 0-0 with Denmark in their most recent outing, a result that reflects the difficulty of facing one of the group’s strongest teams. Before that, they posted the 6-0 win over Serbia, and earlier in the campaign they drew 1-1 with Denmark and lost 0-1 to Sweden. The loss to Sweden remains their only real setback against quality opposition. Their goal difference of plus five is the best in the group, which tells the real story of their attacking threat when matched against beatable sides.

Serbia’s last group match was a 0-1 defeat to Sweden, continuing a run of three consecutive losses in the group stage. Their only point came from a 0-0 draw with Sweden earlier in the campaign. The 6-0 defeat to Italy was the low point, but even their other results have been poor. A 1-3 loss to Denmark and the two defeats to Sweden show a team that simply cannot compete at the top of this group. Their only win in recent competitive action came against Czech Republic in March, a match outside of this qualification group.

🚨Check out our dedicated Italy (W) vs Serbia (W) stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Italy (W) the Favourite

• Moneyline Italy (W) 1.12 | Serbia (W) 13.00
• Draw 6.50

The 1.12 price on Italy reflects how one-sided this match is expected to be. That is a very short price, and backing Italy straight on the moneyline offers almost no value. The smarter play is to move into the goals market or the Asian handicap, where Italy giving a three-goal start still looks reasonable based on the first meeting. The 13.00 on Serbia is a long shot that carries no real justification from the data.

Possible Starting Lineups

Italy (W) Possible Starting Eleven

Andrea Soncin is likely to set up in a 4-3-3, the formation Italy have used consistently through this qualification group. Manuela Giugliano is the engine of the midfield and dictates the tempo from deep. Cristiana Girelli leads the attack and has the experience to punish any defensive lapses from Serbia. Bonansea on the wing adds width and direct running. Against a Serbia side that has conceded ten goals in four group matches, this front three should be active from the opening minutes.

Serbia (W) Possible Starting Eleven

Jeff Strasser is expected to set up in a 4-3-3 or compact 4-5-1, prioritising defensive organisation given the scale of the last defeat. Ivana Ilić in goal will need a strong performance to keep the scoreline respectable. Serbia’s midfield will likely sit deep and look to disrupt Italy’s rhythm through pressing rather than possession. The problem is that this approach failed badly in the reverse fixture, and Italy’s technical quality should be enough to break it down again.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Italy should win this match comfortably. The 6-0 result from the first meeting was not a fluke. Serbia have lost three of their four group games, scoring once and conceding ten. Italy’s attack, led by Girelli and Bonansea, has the quality to exploit a defence that has been consistently poor throughout the campaign.

We predict Italy to win by a margin of at least three goals. The best value lies in targeting the over 3.5 goals line and backing Italy on the Asian handicap rather than the flat moneyline. Both teams to score is a no, as Serbia have failed to score in three of their four group matches. The corner market also looks promising, with Italy expected to spend long periods of the match in Serbia’s half and generating set-piece opportunities.

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