Alex MacQuoid
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Two sides from different trajectories meet at Portman Road in the second round of the EFL Cup. Ipswich, under Gary O’Neil, have been one of the more convincing teams over the past month, winning five of their last seven fixtures. Leicester, managed by Russell Martin, arrive here with just one win in their last five, a run that includes a defeat to Burton — a result that tells you something about where they are right now. The Cup context matters here too: both clubs will want progression, but Ipswich are doing it from a position of form and home comfort, while Leicester look unsettled and inconsistent.
Two players deserve particular attention heading into this one. For Ipswich, Emersonn caught the eye in his most recent appearance, contributing a goal in just 66 minutes of play and showing good movement in tight spaces. For Leicester, Caleb Okoli has been their most reliable performer at the back, chipping in with a goal from defence and racking up three interceptions across three matches — he’ll need to be at his best to contain Ipswich’s forward lines.
Hot stat worth flagging: Leicester registered 31 total shots across their last five matches, compared to just 10 for Ipswich. That sounds alarming for the hosts, but Ipswich have been clinical, converting two goals from those limited attempts, while Leicester’s 31 shots yielded just three goals — a conversion rate that suggests serious wastefulness in front of goal.
| 🏆 Tournament: | EFL Cup 2026/27, Round 2 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Portman Road Stadium, Ipswich |
| 🗓️ Date: | 25.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Ipswich vs Leicester Prediction
The case for backing Ipswich here is straightforward. They’ve won five of their last seven matches, they’re playing at home, and the bookmakers back them at roughly 59% probability. Leicester have won just one in five, dropped points against lower-league opposition, and carry a red card in their recent stats — signs of a team with some internal disorder. O’Neil’s side have been efficient and organised, and the EFL Cup at this stage typically favours the home side with momentum.
Looking at playing styles, Ipswich have been disciplined in their approach — 12 fouls across the last five games is a low number, and their pass accuracy reflects a team that keeps things relatively tight without overcomplicating possession. Leicester, by contrast, committed 35 fouls in the same period, accumulating six yellow cards and one red. That level of indiscipline can be exploited by a smart, direct side like Ipswich. Leicester’s 46 free kicks conceded also opens the door for set-piece opportunities. We think Ipswich win this one, and the goal market leans toward a moderate-scoring game rather than a high-scoring affair given Leicester’s finishing inefficiency.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Ipswich to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Ipswich have been in solid form over the past month, and their recent results carry weight. They beat Sunderland 2-1, dismantled Union Berlin 4-2, and swept aside Rayo Vallecano 3-0 — that’s three wins in a row before this fixture, all against reasonable opposition. The win over Union Berlin stands out given the rating differential; it suggests Ipswich can perform against sides with genuine quality. The 1-0 win over Le Havre was tighter, and the Wycombe result was expected, but the consistency across those results is real. Their last match against Sunderland showed composure: goals from Emersonn and Jack Clarke, with the team managing the game well even under pressure. Their 4-2-3-1 shape has been stable, and O’Neil seems to have settled on a system that suits his personnel.
Leicester’s recent run is a concern. A 1-2 defeat to Burton in their last outing — Burton sit at a world ranking of over 21,000 — is the kind of result that strips away confidence fast. Before that, they drew 1-1 with Notts County and beat Northampton 1-0, with the only brighter note being a 3-3 draw against Malaga. The loss to Genoa 0-1 also points to a side that struggles to find the net when facing organised opposition. Russell Martin will have work to do to get a reaction here. Their 4-2-3-1 system mirrors Ipswich’s shape, which could make for a structured midfield battle, but Leicester’s recent discipline issues — 35 fouls, six yellows, one red in five games — could prove costly.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two clubs have met four times in recent seasons, with Leicester claiming the upper hand in three of those encounters.
| Statistic | Ipswich | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 7 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Ipswich vs Leicester stats page for more info.
Leicester. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Ipswich the Favourite
- Moneyline Ipswich 1.57 | Leicester 5.00
- Draw 4.00
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
The odds reflect the form gap between these sides fairly accurately. Ipswich at around 1.57 to 1.63 across bookmakers is a reasonable price given their five wins in seven and home advantage. Leicester at 4.50 to 5.20 is the market saying this is a long shot for the visitors, and honestly, it’s hard to argue. The draw at 4.00 is tempting if you think Leicester can grind something out defensively, but given their recent tendency to concede at the wrong moments, it feels like a stretch. We think the value sits with Ipswich on the moneyline, with Pinnacle’s 1.57 and Stake’s 1.63 offering the range worth targeting.
Possible Starting Lineups
Ipswich Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Kjell Scherpen
- DF: Jacob Greaves, Dara O’Shea, Issa Diop, Leif Davis
- MF: Marcelino Núñez, Saša Lukić, Julio Enciso
- FW: Emersonn, Daizen Maeda, Jack Clarke
O’Neil’s preferred 4-2-3-1 sees Scherpen in goal — he’s been reliable, making two saves in his last appearance and distributing well. The back four picks itself based on recent appearances, with Dara O’Shea and Issa Diop providing aerial presence and Leif Davis offering width from left-back. Lukić and Núñez form a composed double pivot — Lukić in particular has been excellent, contributing an assist and covering ground efficiently. Julio Enciso operates in the number ten role with license to drive forward. Up front, Emersonn’s recent goal and busy performance make him the standout attacking threat to watch, and his combination with Clarke on the flanks has been sharp.
Leicester Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Alex McCarthy
- DF: Jayden Joseph, Harry Souttar, Caleb Okoli, Luke Thomas
- MF: Oliver Skipp, Samuel Braybrooke, Hamza Choudhury, William Thomas-Alves
- FW: Wes Burns, Liam Cullen
Martin’s 4-2-3-1 shape relies heavily on Souttar and Okoli at centre-back — Okoli has been their most active defender with three interceptions and a goal across three games. Luke Thomas brings attacking threat from left-back with seven free kicks earned. In midfield, Skipp provides cover and has picked up a red card recently, so his discipline will be tested again. Braybrooke has been involved in build-up play, though his seven fouls in three matches is a concern. Burns up front has the only goal among Leicester’s forwards from recent games, making him the primary outlet. Honestly, this is a squad that looks stretched and short of confidence right now.
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Ipswich. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Ipswich are the right side to back here. Their form over the last 30 days — five wins from seven — contrasts sharply with Leicester’s one win from five, and the home setting at Portman Road adds another layer. The head-to-head numbers do favour Leicester historically, with seven goals scored to Ipswich’s three across the last four meetings, but those results came in different contexts, including Championship and Premier League fixtures where squad compositions and stakes differed. In a Cup tie at this stage, form and mentality carry more weight than historical records. Leicester’s defensive fragility, their card accumulation, and their poor conversion rate all point toward a controlled Ipswich win. We’re backing Ipswich to win to nil, with under 2.5 goals as the supporting market.
