Inter vs Bologna Prediction: 04.01.2026 Serie A 2025/26

As Serie A’s regular season reaches its mid-point, the highly anticipated clash between Inter and Bologna promises intriguing tactical twists at the San Siro on the 4th of January, 2026. While Inter sit atop the standings with 36 points, Bologna are on the hunt, holding seventh place with 26 points. The storylines from their recent meetings still feel fresh: Bologna stunned Inter with an epic 4-3 victory in the Supercoppa Italiana semifinals, confounding bookmakers and underlining their pedigree as fearless spoilers. Both sides return to Serie A action with something to prove—Inter intent on cementing their dominance, Bologna eager to replicate past upsets.
In their respective camps, all eyes will be on Inter’s Lautaro Martínez and Bologna’s Riccardo Orsolini. Lautaro, the Nerazzurri’s talisman, has netted three in his last six outings, while Orsolini’s pace and trickery promise headaches for Inter’s high press.
Hot Stat: Inter’s form at San Siro is nothing short of imposing—they’ve scored 35 goals in 16 league matches, the best attack in Serie A. Can the Rossoblù contain them this time?

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Inter vs Bologna prediction

Inter are the deserved favourites on every front. Their home record, attacking firepower, and control in midfield have put them in pole position in Serie A. Bologna’s spirited win over Inter in the Supercoppa highlighted their ability to punch above their weight, but their away form (just three wins in their last eight on the road) adds a tinge of uncertainty.

The Nerazzurri’s dynamism is orchestrated around a fluid 4-2-3-1, with blistering transitions and build-up play led by Barella and Çalhanoğlu. Defence remains mostly disciplined and compact, conceding just 14 league goals. Bologna, typically lining up 3-5-2, rely on structured defence and counter-attacks—yet they’ve struggled with composure at the back, picking up nine yellow cards in their last five.

Expect Inter to dictate ball possession (average 86% pass accuracy over the last five), press aggressively, and pin Bologna deep. Bologna’s lower pass accuracy (74%) and higher foul count suggest they’ll battle to break Inter’s lines and may risk bookings as a result. That sets the scene for a high-intensity, physically charged fixture.

Team Analysis

Inter’s Recent Matches:
Inter come in on the back of a robust defensive display in their 1-0 victory over Atalanta, eking out three points in a nervy affair where their back line held strong under late pressure. Five wins in their last seven—including a convincing 4-0 hammering of Como—underline both their dominance and their ability to break through low blocks with width and pace. Their only blips? A narrow 0-1 defeat to Liverpool in Europe and that thrilling, if defensively suspect, 3-4 loss to Bologna in the Supercoppa. Inter’s form man is Lautaro Martínez (three goals in last six), with Marcus Thuram also firing.

Bologna’s Recent Matches:
Bologna arrive following a tough 1-1 draw with Sassuolo—a match that reflected their season’s narrative: defensive resilience, but lacking a clinical edge in front of goal. Previous outings saw defeat to Napoli (0-2) and Juventus (0-1), exposing vulnerabilities against top-tier opposition. However, their ability to stun Inter (4-3 win in January) is a lingering reminder that this side can pounce when the occasion suits. Key concern lies in their disciplinary record (nine yellows in last five). Up front, Orsolini and Bernardeschi are tasked with creative sparks, but may struggle for supply against Inter’s suffocating midfield.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Inter vs Bologna stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Inter the favourite

• Moneyline Inter 1.45 | Bologna 7.20
• Draw 4.70
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.90 | Under 2.5 1.88
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.82 | No 1.92

Bookmakers leave little doubt about the pecking order. Inter are heavy favourites, reflected by short odds hovering around 1.45. Bologna’s outsider status is fair given their stuttering away form and history at San Siro. However, the margin isn’t as gaping as it sometimes is in Serie A, perhaps a nod to Bologna’s shock Supercoppa win and their proclivity for drama in this fixture. Over 2.5 is attractively priced given both sides’ attacking intent, especially with Inter keen to avenge that recent cup defeat.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Inter possible starting eleven

Basing the selection on appearances and form, Inter should line up in their preferred 4-2-3-1, with Sommer’s reliability in goal. The centre-back duo of Bastoni and de Vrij give stability, with Dimarco (also offering attacking width) and Akanji as full-backs. The midfield pivots Barella and Çalhanoğlu orchestrate play with Zieliński and Mkhitaryan pushing forward. Up front, Thuram and Lautaro are a deadly pairing—expect Lautaro’s movement and finishing to be a focal point.

Bologna possible starting eleven

Bologna should stick to their recent 3-5-2 shape. Ravaglia stands out for his shot-stopping, Lucumi and Miranda anchor the back three. Holm and Miranda provide width as wing-backs. Ferguson, Moro, and Pobega offer versatility but lack the controlling quality of Inter’s midfield. Up top, the dual threat of Bernardeschi (two goals in last four) and Orsolini is charged with hitting on the break. Keep an eye on Bernardeschi—his set-piece delivery can turn a match on a sixpence.

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My take on the Match

This clash is set to be one for the tacticians and the romantics alike. Inter’s control, crowd energy, and attacking verve make them deserving favourites. However, Bologna have made a habit of refusing to read from the script—remember, their last trip to Milan ended in a seven-goal thriller! Still, the smart money is on Inter: their depth, efficiency, and vengeance from the recent Supercoppa defeat will fuel them.

Main pick: Inter to win (-1 Asian Handicap), Over 2.5 goals
Inter are likely to control possession and tempo and wear Bologna down with relentless attacks, while the visitors’ ability on the break means both sides can find the net. This shapes up as a match where Inter’s title credentials meet Bologna’s appetite for chaos. The Rossoblù will fight, but Inter’s class should prevail by two or more goals.

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